Is Moderna Stock A Sell With Deep Losses Projected For Q4?

 Despite becoming a household name during the pandemic, Moderna (MRNA) stock has mostly fallen over the past three years amid decelerating sales and clinical pitfalls.

Shares took a dive on Nov. 15 after President-elect Donald Trump said he would appoint known vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head up the Department of Health and Human Services. Today, all of Moderna's sales stem from vaccines.

Moderna shares also toppled on Nov. 7 after the company beat third-quarter sales expectations, but kept its outlook for the year, indicating the beat stemmed from sales that typically would have occurred in the fourth quarter. The company also came up with surprise profit, but still expects losses in the future.

Moderna stock also tumbled more than 12% on Sept. 12. The company said it expects $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion in 2025 sales, below its view for $3 billion to $3.5 billion this year. Moderna also pushed out its breakeven point by two years to 2028. And, for 2027, the company now expects to cut its research and development budget by $1.1 billion.

That's amid a massive commercial push. Today, Moderna sells two products — its Covid vaccine called Spikevax and a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, mResvia. But it's going up against giants. Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) continue to lead the market for Covid shots, and both GSK (GSK) and Pfizer launched RSV shots a year before Moderna.

So, is Moderna stock a sell today?

A Fundamental Look At Moderna Stock

Moderna stock fell despite beating third-quarter expectations.

Overall, third-quarter sales ticked about 2% ahead year over year to $1.9 billion. That handily beat expectations for $1.25 billion. But the lion's share of that came from Spikevax, the Covid vaccine. Sales of mResvia, the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine, vastly lagged forecasts at just $10 million. Analysts called for $132 million, according to FactSet.

"We really missed the majority of the contracting season," Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock told Investor's Business Daily. "It's a very competitive market, although the good news about the respiratory market is it's often a large market."

The fall vaccine campaign could help Moderna. There have been 19 million Covid vaccinations through the end of October, ahead of the same time last year. But it remains to be seen whether 2024 will reach the 28 million vaccinations achieved in 2023.

For the fourth quarter, Moderna stock analysts project adjusted losses of $2.56 per share and $1.08 billion in sales. Sales are expected to dive again in the first quarter, in timing with the seasonal nature of Moderna's respiratory vaccines. Analysts call for a $3.02 per-share loss and $216 million in sales.

Moderna stock has a poor IBD Digital Composite Rating of 16 out of a best-possible 99. The Composite Rating is a measure of a stock's key fundamental and technical measures. So, shares rank in the bottom 16% of all stocks, regardless the industry group, on that measurement.

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