Estimating infectiousness throughout SARS-CoV-2 infection course

 Terry C. Jones1,2,3,†, 

1. View ORCID ProfileGuido Biele4,5,†, 
2. View ORCID ProfileBarbara Mühlemann1,2, 
3. View ORCID ProfileTalitha Veith1,2, 
4. View ORCID ProfileJulia Schneider1,2, 
5. Jörn Beheim-Schwarzbach1, 
6. Tobias Bleicker1, 
7. Julia Tesch1, 
8. Marie Luisa Schmidt1, 
9. View ORCID ProfileLeif Erik Sander6, 
10. View ORCID ProfileFlorian Kurth6,7, 
11. View ORCID ProfilePeter Menzel8, 
12. View ORCID ProfileRolf Schwarzer8, 
13. View ORCID ProfileMarta Zuchowski8, 
14. Jörg Hofmann8, 
15. Andi Krumbholz9,10, 
16. Angela Stein8, 
17. View ORCID ProfileAnke Edelmann8, 
18. View ORCID ProfileVictor Max Corman1,2, 
19. View ORCID ProfileChristian Drosten1,2,*

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DOI: 10.1126/science.abi5273

PDF: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/05/24/science.abi5273/tab-pdf

Abstract

Two elementary parameters for quantifying viral infection and shedding are viral load and whether samples yield a replicating virus isolate in cell culture. We examined 25,381 German SARS-CoV-2 cases, including 6110 from test centres attended by pre-symptomatic, asymptomatic, and mildly-symptomatic (PAMS) subjects, 9519 who were hospitalised, and 1533 B.1.1.7 lineage infections. The youngest had mean log10 viral load 0.5 (or less) lower than older subjects and an estimated ~78% of the peak cell culture replication probability, due in part to smaller swab sizes and unlikely to be clinically relevant. Viral loads above 109 copies per swab were found in 8% of subjects, one-third of whom were PAMS, with mean age 37.6. We estimate 4.3 days from onset of shedding to peak viral load (8.1) and cell culture isolation probability (0.75). B.1.1.7 subjects had mean log10 viral load 1.05 higher than non-B.1.1.7, with estimated cell culture replication probability 2.6 times higher.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/05/24/science.abi5273