Clover Health 2021 guidance and commentary
- Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion. This reflects MA revenue of $760 million to $790 million and Medicare Direct Contracting revenue of $650 million to $700 million.
- Medicare Advantage membership is expected to be in the range of 68,000 - 70,000 by December 31, 2021, a growth rate of 17% - 21% as compared to year end 2020.
- For the Medicare Direct Contracting program, the Company expects the number of aligned beneficiaries to remain roughly flat for the remainder of 2021. Further, the Company expects a significant increase in total aligned beneficiaries on January 1, 2022 when claims aligned beneficiaries for 2022 become active.
- Normalized MCR (Non-GAAP)(1) for Medicare Advantage is expected to be in the range of 94% - 97%.
- Adjusted Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP)(1), which we define as Salaries and benefits plus General and administrative expenses less stock-based compensation expense, is expected to be between $250 and $270 million.
- Adjusted Operating Expenses (Non-GAAP) as a percentage of revenue(1) is expected to be 16% in the second half of 2021 compared to 21% in the first half of 2021 and 22% in full year 2020.
- Normalized Adjusted EBITDA loss (Non-GAAP)(1) is expected to be in the range of $(250) - $(210) million. This excludes gross profit or loss from Direct Contracting, reflecting the fact that we do not yet have sufficient claims data to prepare a “normalized” result for the Direct Contracting segment.
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