Oppenheimer outlook puts S&P 500 on a path to 8,100 by year end 2026

 Oppenheimer’s Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus reportedly expects the S&P 500 index to rally by 18% by the end of 2026, rising to 8,100 points.

According to a Bloomberg report citing Stoltzfus’s latest note, the strategist expects the S&P 500 to surge on the back of easing monetary policy and robust economic growth.

One of Wall Street’s widely followed strategists, Stoltzfus, said the firm is positive on equities and considers it its favorite asset class, according to the report. In addition to the Fed’s rate cuts and economic resilience, the strategist also credited strong U.S. corporate earnings as a reason behind his bullish outlook on the S&P 500 heading into the next year.

The S&P 500 has soared 17% year-to-date, and Lance Roberts, Chief Strategist at RIA Advisors, noted in a post on X that seasonality has turned supportive. He pointed to the index’s historical performance since 1928, noting that it has delivered an average gain of 1.3% in the second half of December. The gains stood at 2.1% when the seasonality was supportive, he observed.

In a note last week, Stoltzfus stated that if the Fed does cut rates this month, the markets are likely to reflect on it positively, if not enthusiastically. “In 2026 we expect the Fed will likely cut rates further if the flow of economic data suggests that inflation is slowing or if the unemployment rate rises further,” he added.

In July, Stoltzfus revised the year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 7,100 from 5,950. With three weeks to go for the end of 2025, the index is just 3% shy of the firm’s target.

Veteran analyst Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, said in a recent note that U.S. equities are set for an early Santa Claus rally amid rising hopes of a rate cut.

“The S&P 500 rose back above its 50-day moving average last week and now appears to be back on track to hit 7,000 in a year-end Santa Claus rally,” he said.

According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 89.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut this week.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities gained in Monday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up by 0.17%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.

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