Update (1630ET): Details of Trump's Greenland deal are trickling in.
With little official information on what Trump earlier called "a framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland", which prompted the president to call off tariff threats that he had issued in an effort to secure American ownership of Greenland, and sparked a massive market rally (just as JPMorgan's trading desk said would happen), the NYT reports that the announcement followed a NATO meeting on Wednesday "where top military officers from the alliance’s member states discussed a compromise in which Denmark would give the United States sovereignty over small pockets of Greenlandic land where the United States could build military bases."
The NYT goes on to note that according to two of the officials, who attended the meeting, the deal compares "to the United Kingdom’s bases in Cyprus, which are regarded as British territory."
What wasn't reported is that the US already has a military base in Greenland, namely Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base), where about 150 United States service members are permanently stationed as of 2025, after the United States significantly reduced its presence from 6,000 personnel during the Cold War.
The US has had a military presence on Greenland since the second world war, when the island was left undefended during the Nazi occupation of its then colonial ruler, Denmark. The US moved in, setting up airfields, weather stations and defences and watched for German submarines in the North Atlantic. Ten years later, the arrangement was formalised via a defence treaty with Denmark, which is part of Nato, that allowed the US the right to operate military facilities there. During the cold war, Pituffik again became an important Arctic base for the US.
Under the 1951 Greenland Defense Agreement, the United States was allowed to operate the base under a NATO framework, as long as both Denmark and the United States remain NATO members. Under the agreement, the Danish national flag must be flown at the base to recognize that the base is on Danish territory, but the United States is allowed to fly its own flag alongside the Danish flag on the facilities it operates.
The 1951 agreement was modified in 2004, giving the USA unrestricted access to the Pituffik base. Sure enough, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has referred to this recently. If the Americans want to expand their military presence beyond that, they only must consult and inform the authorities in Nuuk and Copenhagen.
Back in March 2025, vice president JD Vance brought a US delegation to Pituffik space base, which is located 932 miles (1,500km) from Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, 750 miles (1,207km) north of the Arctic Circle, and across Baffin Bay from Nunavut in Canada, thus playing an essential role in US missile detection.
In other words, while the US will go from having a military base in Greenland on semi-autonomous territory to... having a base in Greenland on autonomous territory, all Trump needs to do is change the name of the island to Greentanamo and declare victory, and the entire episode will be forgotten.
And yes, there is a tweet for that.
* * *
Update (1430ET): Global markets are roiling once again following a post from President Trump on his social media feed that "based upon a very productive meeting" with the NATO SecGen Mark Rutte:
"we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region.
This solution, if consummated, will be a great one for the United States of America, and all NATO Nations.
Based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st.
Additional discussions are being held concerning The Golden Dome as it pertains to Greenland.
Further information will be made available as discussions progress.
Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and various others, as needed, will be responsible for the negotiations — They will report directly to me. "
Of course, there is nothing in this statement that mentions any discussions with Greenland itself... or EU nations.
Additionally, President Trump spoke to CNBC's Joe Kernen and made the following key points:
*TRUMP: GREENLAND FRAMEWORK IS A LONG TERM DEAL
*TRUMP: GREENLAND FRAMEWORK PUTS EVERYONE IN A GOOD POSITION
*TRUMP: FRAMEWORK IS A DEAL THAT'S 'FOREVER'
*TRUMP SAYS `I ASSUME' DENMARK HAS WEIGHED IN POSSIBLE DEAL INVOLVING GREENLAND
*TRUMP: GREENLAND THREAT WAS A TRADE WAR, DON'T SEE US FIGHTING
*TRUMP SAYS US TO BE 'INVOLVED' IN GREENLAND MINERAL RIGHTS
Who could have seen this coming?
As JPM noted:
The most likely outcome is a NEGOTIATED ARRANGEMENT that expands US security/eco presence in the territory and addresses US stated objectives – stronger Arctic security posture, enhanced early warning for missile defense and access to Greenland’s natural resources – while Denmark preserves sovereignty.
A SALE is less likely because the US does not need formal territorial control to achieve the stated objectives, and it would seem had to get approval from both Denmark and Greenland.
An INVASION is really a tail outcome for more than one reason: polls horribly with voters and, needless to say, it would melt NATO faster than Arctic ice…
And there we go... will Denmark start buying USTs again now... with all the cash they are going to get from Trump?
Anyone else getting 'China Trade Truce' deja vu feelings all over again?
Oct 26, 2025: US reaches "framework of a potential trade deal" with China
Jan 21, 2026: US reaches "framework of a future deal" on Greenland
* * *
In a lengthy (90 minute) speech to the elites gathered at Davos, President Trump pulled no punches as he took shots at the various 'loser' globalist leaders in the audience.
What was supposed to be a discussion of Trump's domestic policies aimed at improving affordability for Americans turned into a geopolitical mish-mosh (after the ubiquitous grandstanding about how great America is doing).
Here are the headlines broken down by topic (not in order):
Domestic/Affordability
US is seeing "the fastest and most dramatic economic turnaround in our country's history," Trump claimed.
- *TRUMP: US INFLATION HAS BEEN DEFEATED
- *TRUMP: US ECONOMY ON PACE TO GROW AT DOUBLE IMF PROJECTED RATE
- *TRUMP: BELIEVE MY POLICIES CAN BRING GROWTH EVEN HIGHER
- *TRUMP: INTEND TO RAISE LIVING STANDARDS
- *TRUMP: STOCK MARKET DIP 'PEANUTS', STOCK MARKET WILL DOUBLE
- *TRUMP: MORTGAGE PRICES, RENTS, CAR PAYMENTS GOING DOWN
- *TRUMP: DRUG PRICES WILL GO DOWN BY A STAGGERING 90%
- *TRUMP ATTACKS CORPORATIONS BUYING HOUSES
- *TRUMP: SIGNED ORDER BANNING INSTITUTIONAL HOME BUYERS
- *TRUMP LAMENTS SURGING CREDIT CARD DEBT
- *TRUMP REITERATES SEEKING CREDIT CARD INTEREST CAP FOR 1 YEAR
- *TRUMP: DON'T WANT TO HURT VALUE HELD BY PEOPLE OWNING HOMES
- *INSTITUTIONAL HOMEBUYING 'JUST NOT FAIR TO THE PUBLIC': TRUMP
- *TRUMP SAYS 'HAVE TO THINK ABOUT' HOME DEPRECIATION RULES
- *TRUMP: US IS KEEPING THE WHOLE WORLD AFLOAT
- *TRUMP: REALIZED MANY PLACES MAKING FORTUNE FROM THE US
Crypto
- *TRUMP: CONGRESS WORKING ON CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE REGULATION
- *TRUMP: HOPE TO SIGN BILL ON CRYPTO SOON
- *TRUMP: CRYPTO POLITICALLY POPULAR, NEED TO BLOCK CHINA'S HOLD
The Fed
- *TRUMP: ANNOUNCING NEW FED CHAIR IN NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE
- *TRUMP: NEW FED CHAIR WILL BE SOMEONE VERY RESPECTED
- *TRUMP: PROBLEM IS FED CHAIRS CHANGE ONCE THEY GET THE ROLE
- *TRUMP: WE SHOULD BE PAYING A MUCH LOWER INTEREST RATE
- *TRUMP: POWELL RAISES INTEREST RATES, STOPS US FROM SUCCESS
- *TRUMP: GOOD NEWS USED TO SEND STOCKS UP, HOW IT SHOULD BE
- *TRUMP: GROWTH DOESN'T MEAN INFLATION, IT CAN FIGHT INFLATION
- *TRUMP: WILL MAKE STOCK MARKET RALLY ON GOOD ECONOMIC NEWS
Europe
- *TRUMP: EUROPE NOT HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
- *TRUMP: CERTAIN PLACES IN EUROPE ARE NOT RECOGNIZABLE ANYMORE
- *TRUMP: CRITICIZES EUROPE EMPHASIS ON GREEN ENERGY, IMMIGRATION
- *TRUMP: WHEN THE US GOES UP, 'YOU FOLLOW'
- *TRUMP CRITICIZES EUROPEAN ENERGY COSTS, BLAMES WINDMILLS
- *TRUMP: WE WANT STRONG ALLIES, NOT SERIOUSLY WEAKENED ONES
- *TRUMP MOCKS FRENCH PRESIDENT MACRON FOR WEARING SUNGLASSES
- *TRUMP: I WANT EUROPE, THE UK 'TO DO GREAT'
Energy
- *TRUMP: US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION AT ALL-TIME HIGH
- *TRUMP: US IS HELPING VENEZUELA, WE'LL SPLIT OIL REVENUE W/ THEM
- *TRUMP: GASOLINE PRICES WILL SOON BE LESS THAN $2/GALLON
- *TRUMP: US IS 'GOING HEAVY' INTO NUCLEAR ENERGY
- *TRUMP REITERATES ATTACK ON WIND MILLS
- *TRUMP: CHINA SELLS WINDMILLS BUT DOESN'T USE THEM THEMSELVES
Greenland/NATO
- *TRUMP ON NATO: TIME TO STEP UP
- *TRUMP: TREMENDOUS RESPECT FOR PEOPLE OF GREENLAND, DENMARK
- *TRUMP: DURING WWII, WE FOUGHT TO SAVE GREENLAND FOR DENMARK
- *TRUMP: AFTER WAR WE GAVE GREENLAND BACK, 'HOW STUPID WERE WE'
- *TRUMP: DENMARK 'UNGRATEFUL' ABOUT GREENLAND
- *TRUMP: US ALONE CAN PROTECT GREENLAND, DEVELOP, IMPROVE IT
- *TRUMP: US TREATED VERY UNFAIRLY BY NATO
- *TRUMP: GREENLAND WOULD NOT BE THREAT TO NATO, WOULD ENHANCE
- *US SEEKS IMMEDIATE TALKS ON ACQUIRING GREENLAND, TRUMP SAYS
- *TRUMP: WON'T USE FORCE TO GET GREENLAND
- *TRUMP: SEEKING RIGHT, TITLE AND OWNERSHIP OF GREENLAND
- *TRUMP: CAN'T DEFEND GREENLAND ON A LEASE
- *TRUMP: NATO, EUROPE DOESN'T APPRECIATE WORK THAT THE US DOES
- *TRUMP: BUILDING A GOLDEN DOME ATOP GREENLAND
- *TRUMP: NOT SURE NATO WILL BE THERE FOR US IF WE WERE ATTACKED
- *TRUMP: NOW I'M ASKING FOR A PIECE OF ICE, A VERY SMALL ASK
- *TRUMP: US WILL MAKE WEAPONS EVEN FASTER AFTER NEW DEFENSE RULES
- *TRUMP: GREENLAND COSTING DEMARK HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS TO RUN IT
- *TRUMP ON GREENLAND: IF YOU SAY NO, WE WILL REMEMBER
Canada
- *TRUMP: GOLDEN DOME WILL DEFEND CANADA, THEY SHOULD BE GRATEFUL
- *TRUMP: CANADA NOT GRATEFUL
- *TRUMP: CANADA LIVES BECAUSE OF THE US, REMEBER THAT, CARNEY
Ukraine/Russia
- *TRUMP: UKRAINE IS A 'BLOODBATH,' I WANT TO STOP IT
- *TRUMP: NATO WANTS HELP ON UKRAINE, WE'RE GOING TO
- *TRUMP: DEALING WITH PUTIN, HE WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL
- *TRUMP: BELIEVE ZELENSKIY WANTS TO MAKE A DEAL
- *TRUMP: ABNORMAL HATRED BETWEEN RUSSIA-UKRAINE, TRYING ON DEAL
- *TRUMP: 'STUPID' IF UKRAINE-RUSSIA CAN'T COME TOGETHER ON DEAL
Conclusion
- *TRUMP: WEST HAS TO BECOME STRONGER, DEFEND ITS CULTURE
- *TRUMP: WEST'S PROSPERITY AND PROGRESS CAME FROM OUR CULTURE
There's a lot there but the main focus of commentary has been on Trump ruling out taking Greenland by force but calling for "immediate negotiations".
“People thought I would use force. I don’t have to use force. I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force,” Trump said in a highly anticipated address to the World Economic Forum.
Between his sharp criticisms of NATO and Europe, Trump repeatedly signaled that fears of invasion were overblown:
"They have a choice: You can say yes and we will be very appreciative, or you can say no, and we will remember."
Watch President Trump's address to Davos below:
* * *
President Trump's trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos was briefly delayed after Air Force One returned to Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, shortly after departure due to a minor electrical issue identified on the 747. Flight crews did not declare an emergency or squawk 7700, indicating the situation was precautionary.
Real-time aircraft tracking platform AirNav Radar showed the flight path of AF1 as it departed Joint Base Andrews for Davos, Switzerland, in the overnight hours. While paralleling the coast of Long Island, pilots appeared to decide to return to Joint Base Andrews due to a "minor electrical issue."
AF1 landed safely at Andrews around 2300 ET, after about an hour and 20 minutes in the air, according to AirNav Radar.
Trump and the delegation traveling with him quickly boarded a Boeing 757, typically used by the Vice President or other cabinet members, and took off around midnight en route to Davos.
Despite the brief travel delay, Trump has arrived in Switzerland. He is expected to address the Davos elites at 0830 ET.
The focus of Trump's speech is likely on the domestic agenda, particularly housing, according to Goldman's Delta One desk-head, Rich Privorotsky, who noted that overnight headlines floated executive action aimed at curbing institutional home purchases, though legal scope looks narrow.
Expectations are also building around incremental flexibility in 401k usage as part of a broader affordability push.
Late chatter about tariff rebate checks feels legally doubtful without Congressional backing.
Polling on affordability remains weak, and foreign adventurism…Greenland in particular…has not helped approval ratings.
This speech has been framed as both a reset toward domestic priorities and given the relative outperformance of domestic stocks could be an important catalyst
But, earlier, at the Davos podium, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a historic rebuke to the U.S. under President Trump, declaring the rules-based order led by America "a pleasant fiction" (reiterating his recent remarks on the shifting world order)
“I will talk today about the breaking of the world order, the end of a pleasant fiction and the beginning of a brutal reality where the geopolitics of the great powers is not subject to any constraint,” said Mr. Carney.
“Every day we’re reminded that we live in an era of great-power rivalry,” he said.
“That the rules-based order is fading. That the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must.”
He added, “Let me be direct: We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.”
"This bargain no longer works."
In his speech Mr. Carney called on medium-size countries like Canada to band together to offset the power of the United States, China and Russia.
“The middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” he said. “Great powers can afford for now to go it alone.”
Carney, who received a standing ovation, spoke not long after Mr. Trump posted an A.I. image on social media that included a map of American flags superimposed over both Canada and the United States.
While the address has been front-run as being about domestic 'affordability', we suspect the President will diverge from the teleprompter a little and use this as an excuse to discuss his various recent escapades around the world (and take a shot at Carney and Macron).
JPMorgan may have summed it up best: “We thought the president was going to Davos to talk about housing and credit card affordability. Suddenly now it’s become about Greenland affordability."
The President is due to speak at 0830ET.
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