by Criterion Research President James Bevan,
Winter Storm Fern's Arctic blast from January 21-26 provided clear data on generation dispatch patterns during extreme cold weather events. The storm stressed multiple U.S. power grids, such as PJM and ERCOT and demonstrated the operational characteristics of different generation types under peak winter demand conditions.
As the cold rolled in - Criterion's pipeline data showed huge increases in deliveries to gas-fired power plants. That included dozens of active plants hitting all-time highs, along with a huge amount of peaking capacity firing online to help keep the grid stable.
Gas & Coal Step Up Amidst High Demand
During peak demand periods in PJM - the nation's largest grid operator - thermal and nuclear generation dominated the dispatch stack. As the cold conditions arrived, natural gas provided 43% of generation and coal contributed 23%, while wind and solar fell to a combined 3-4% of the total fuel mix.
PJM wind levels fell to month-to-date lows over the weekend as load intensified, fading to a mere 2,142 MW on Saturday as gas burns ramped to 55,655 MW (a seasonal high).
Solar is already a limited part of the PJM fuel mix, and its output of 2,372 MW on Saturday had limited impacts vs thermal, and solar dropped even further yesterday, with output at a low of 442 MW.
In ERCOT, the grid maintained operating reserves above 11,000 MW throughout the event. The thousands of natural gas facilities that underwent weatherization and inspection protocols following Winter Storm Uri performed as designed, with minimal forced outages reported.
To meet peak load, ERCOT thermal assets have accelerated to record levels. That includes live readings of natural gas burns that surged to new 5YR highs in the morning - reaching 48,477 GW at one point.
ERCOT coal burns lifted as well, nearing 10,400 MW early in the morning as peak load levels hit.
ERCOT wind and solar underperformed, falling well below the levels seen earlier this month.
Forward Implications
The grid maintained an adequate supply-demand balance during this event due to existing thermal generation capacity. However, with data center load growth adding demand equivalent to major metropolitan areas and accelerating thermal retirements, winter reserve margins face increasing pressure in several regions.
The event highlights the case for incremental natural gas generation builds. With coal retirements reducing fuel-secure capacity and intermittent resources providing limited contribution during winter peaks, new gas-fired capacity will be essential to maintain reliability. Current interconnection queues show significant gas generation projects, but lead times for permitting and construction suggest a multi-year timeline to address emerging capacity deficits in key regions.
* * *
A message from West Virginia coal miners...
"Affordable Power. Grid Reliability. All from American Coal," WV Coal Association wrote on X.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.