Summary:
Iran makes clear Lebanon fighting must end or else Pakistan talks "meaningless" - as its delegation arrives in 'locked down' Pakistan.
Trump 'optimistic' a deal within reach - also as Israel-Lebanon talks scheduled in Washington next week. US delegation headed by Vance en route to Islamabad.
Lloyd's: "The Iranians are willing to negotiate with certain countries to secure voyages, but only on a case-by-case basis." A handful of mostly Iranian/China-linked tankers have passed in last 24 hours.
After days of search and rescue, Lebanon death toll stands at over 300 following the Wednesday 'surprise' Israeli strikes. Sporadic IDF attacks continue on south and east.
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Sporadic Fighting Persists in Lebanon
A big question remains: will Israel and Lebanon actually formally start the ceasefire negotiations that Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered his cabinet to prepare for? Negotiations are tentatively expected to begin next week at the State Department in Washington. The massive Israeli strikes from earlier this week have threatened to derail the Iran ceasefire deal before it really gets off the ground.
Senior Iranian security sources suggests should Israel strike Beirut again, the US-Iran negotiations will be terminated: Press TV
For now, Israel has continued attacking Lebanon on Friday, also as Hezbollah has continued firing missiles on northern Israel. Wednesday saw some 70 rockets fired from Lebanon, after the earlier massive Israeli surprise attacks which killed over 300 Lebanese and over 1,150 wounded. There may be some ground fighting in the south too, amid ongoing IDF aerial attacks on southern Lebanon. Al Jazeera says that an Israeli airstrike hit the town of al-Tayri in southern Lebanon, and another targeted the town of Sahmar in the western Bekaa region of eastern Lebanon. Heavy Israeli strikes in the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon have also been reported Friday.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem has vowed in a statement carried by AI Mayadeen that the Iran-aligned group will "remain steadfast" as "resistance will continue until our last breath." He praised Hezbollah for thwarting a ground invasion, saying "the enemy was surprised by the methods of resistance, the flexibility of the Mujahideen movement, and their defensive capabilities." He vowed, "We will not accept a return to the previous situation, and we call on officials to stop offering free concessions," while denouncing the "bloody criminality on Wednesday."
Iranian Delegation Arrives in Pakistan
As the US and Iran prepare for talks in Pakistan, the Lebanon crisis is still a closely watched sticky issue which could escalate before it gets better. Pakistani media has reported that the Iranian delegation has arrived for negotiations, which are set to proceed Saturday, also pending the arrival of the US team headed by Vice President JD Vance - and including Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
US team headed by Vance en route to Pakistan...
However, there's been no official confirmed info about the arrival of Iranian Parliament Speaker and the Foreign Minister, but we can at least assume that Abbas Araghchi will be there in person. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf is likely there too.
Meanwhile, unconfirmed/developing chatter of division within Iranian negotiating ranks:
THE IRGC COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF AHMAD VAHIDI IS SEEKING TO CURB THE AUTHORITY OF MOHAMMAD BAGHER GHALIBAF AND FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI IN THE TALKS. || VAHIDI HAS ALSO PUSHED FOR THE INCLUSION OF MOHAMMAD BAGHER ZOLGHADR, SECRETARY OF THE SUPREME NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL, IN THE NEGOTIATING TEAM — A MOVE OPPOSED BY CURRENT MEMBERS, WHO CONSIDER HIM LACKING EXPERIENCE FOR STRATEGIC NEGOTIATIONS. - SOURCES
SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIALS ARE LOCKED IN A DISPUTE OVER THE COMPOSITION AND AUTHORITY OF THE DELEGATION SET TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE UNITED STATES IN ISLAMABAD, ACCORDING TO INFORMATION RECEIVED BY IRAN INTERNATIONAL. - SOURCES
Islamabad is said to be under effective lockdown while hosting the high stakes summit. President Trump previously expressed concern over the security situation, related to sending Vance. One outlet observes, "Pakistan has ramped up security in Islamabad ahead of high-stakes direct talks between the United States and Iran, with the federal capital administration declaring a two-day public holiday on Thursday and Friday."
A Pakistani official has told The Guardian, "Our priority is that the talks go smoothly. We don't want to be seen as a spoiler. Our role is as a facilitator and mediator. We will leave it to both parties, Iran and the US, to share any developments with the media if they want."
Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has made clear Iran's position that any peace negotiations would be "meaningless" if they took place while Israeli bombs continue to fall on Lebanon.
Washington Post reports the Trump admin intends to request the release of Americans detained in Iran as part of the negotiations.
Hormuz Status Update: 'No Option' but to Negotiate Passage with Iran
As a reminder, President Trump has stated that Iran is "doing a very poor job" of allowing oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz and warned Tehran against imposing tolls on vessels transiting the waterway. An Iranian lawmaker stated earlier that some ships are being charged as much as $2 million for passage through the strait.
Reuters highlights that the majority of ships that have sailed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past day were linked to Iran, per fresh tracking data. The majority of vessels, however, are still not risking passage with the waterway still under threat.
"Three tankers – a crude supertanker that can carry 2 million barrels of oil, a bunkering tanker and a smaller oil ship – all left Iranian waters in the past 24 hours, based on separate data analysis from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence platforms," Reuters notes. "Four dry bulk ships – including one that loaded iron ore from Iran bound for China – also sailed in the past day, the data shows."
On the evening of Islamabad talks, Iran holds the Hormuz leverage. "The Iranians are willing to negotiate with certain countries to secure voyages, but only on a case-by-case basis," said Bridget Diakun, a senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, to the NY Times. "The Trump administration is forcing its allies to negotiate with Iran because there is no other option."
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