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Tuesday, November 6, 2018

BMO Capital optimistic about Sage Therapeutics upcoming data readouts


BMO Capital analyst Gary Nachman kept his Outperform rating and $203 price target on Sage Therapeutics after its Q3 results, saying the company’s “much higher SG&A” spending is “supporting preparations for an expected launch of Zulresso” for postpartum depression in March of 2019. The analyst anticipates approval for Zulresso by the December PDUFA following a “very favorable AdComm last week”. Nachman is also positive on Sage Therapeutics’ development of trials for SAGE-217 in major depressive disorders, which he claims may be “an even bigger opportunity if successful”.
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2819035

Amarin to hold an analyst and investor meeting with conference call hookup


Investor and Analyst Meeting to discuss the REDUCE-IT Trial results as presented at the American Heart Association’s Scientific Sessions will be held in New York on November 10 at 8:15 pm.
Webcast:  http://www.investorcalendar.com/event/39894
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2819041

Surmodics’ SurVeil study: Data met primary, secondary endpoints


Surmodics announced that data from the PREVEIL early feasibility study of the company’s SurVeil drug-coated balloon was shared in a late-breaking clinical trial presentation at the Vascular Interventional Advances 2018 conference in Las Vegas. PREVEIL is a prospective, U.S., multi-center, single-arm trial designed to assess the safety and feasibility of the SurVeil DCB in the treatment of subjects with symptomatic peripheral artery disease due to de novo lesions of the femoral and popliteal arteries. Twelve-month data from the study show that acute success measures of safety were achieved in 100 percent of subjects. No subjects required re-intervention of either the target lesion or the target vessel at 12 months. The results also demonstrate continued significant improvement in Rutherford classification, resting ankle brachial index, and walking impairment questionnaire including walking distance, walking speed and stair-climbing scores at 12 months. As was presented with the six-month results, median paclitaxel plasma concentration peaked immediately post-procedure and was undetectable at 30 days. Secondary technical, device, and procedure success criteria were achieved. The SurVeil DCB is not yet approved for sale in the United States.
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2819019

Morgan Stanley Turns Bullish On Bausch Health


Bausch Health Companies Inc BHC 4.5%formerly Valeant Pharma, holds upside potential of about 32 percent, according to Morgan Stanley.

The Analyst

Analyst David Risinger upgraded Bausch from Equal-weight to Overweight and set $32 price target.

The Thesis

Bausch’s growth is expected to improve in 2020, courtesy of the sales ramps of new products that are likely to boost investor enthusiasm and help pay down debt, enhancing equity value over time, Risinger said in the Monday upgrade note. (See his track record here.)
The analyst noted an improvement in prescription trends for the glaucoma treatment Vyzulta following the launch of a 2.5-ml monthly size and a strong ramp in the over-the-counter eye redness drops Lumify.
Risinger expects the company’s strong presence in dermatology to result in a solid new sales ramp for two topical psoriasis products, Bryhali and Duobrii.
Incorporating this improving growth outlook, Morgan Stanley extended its model from 2020 to 2023.
“We expect 2018 to be the last year of declining financials, 2019 to be flattish and then 2020 and beyond to show solid growth,” Risinger said.
The analyst estimates a five-year CAGR of 4 percent for revenue, 7 percent for EBITDA and 13 percent for EBITDA between 2018 and 2023.
Growing EBITDA in 2020 and beyond will help reduce net debt/EBITDA from 7.1 tines in 2017 to 4.2 times in 2023, the analyst said.
With a wide bull-to-bear skew due to Bausch’s high leverage, small changes in enterprise value could drive large changes in equity value, Risinger said.