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Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Alcon revenue miss, ups EPS growth guidance

 

Alcon reports Q1 2026 results with non-GAAP EPS $0.85 (+16% YoY) beating estimates and revenue $2.7B (+10% YoY) missing estimates

  • Raises 2026 core EPS growth guidance to 10–13% from 9–12%.
  • Authorizes up to $1.5 billion share repurchase program in aggregate.

Nerve stimulation device maker Mobia Medical sets terms for $150 million IPO, pricing this week

 Mobia Medical, which sells a nerve stimulation device for chronic ischemic stroke, announced terms for its IPO on Monday.


The Austin, TX-based company plans to raise $150 million by offering 10 million shares at a price range of $14 to $16.

Mobia's Vivistim Paired Vagus Nerve Stimulation System is the first and only clinically-validated, FDA-approved solution for chronic ischemic stroke survivors with moderate to severe upper extremity impairments. The system includes an implanted pulse generator and lead that deliver stimulation during functional movement in order to increase neuroplasticity and durably restore motor function. Management estimates that there are over four million chronic ischemic stroke survivors, of which one million have the health, cognition, and motivation to participate in post-stroke therapy, representing a $30 billion opportunity based on the system's price.

Mobia Medical was founded in 2007 and booked $32 million in revenue for the 12 months ended December 31, 2025. It plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol MOBI. BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs are the joint bookrunners on the deal. It is expected to price the week of May 4, 2026.

Emergency medical services provider GMR Solutions sets terms for $750 million IPO

GMR Solutions, a leading provider of emergency medical services and alternate-site care in the US, announced terms for its IPO on Monday.

The Lewisville, TX-based company plans to raise $750 million by offering 31.9 million shares at a price range of $22 to $25.

Formed in 2018 through the merger of Air Medical Group Holdings and American Medical Response, GMR Solutions is a provider of emergency medical services and out-of-hospital care in the United States and internationally. The company delivers on-site clinical care through trained medical teams and coordinates patient transport via air and ground ambulance when higher levels of care are required, or directs non-emergent patients to lower-acuity settings. Its operations span a broad network of urban and rural communities, functioning as an entry point into the healthcare system and supporting care delivery across a range of emergency and non-emergency situations.

GMR Solutions was founded in 2018 and booked $5.7 billion in revenue for the 12 months ended December 31, 2025. It plans to list on the NYSE under the symbol GMRS. J.P. Morgan, KKR, BofA Securities, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Evercore ISI, Morgan Stanley, and UBS Investment Bank are the joint bookrunners on the deal. It is expected to price during the week of May 11, 2026.

Quanterix maintains 2026 guidance despite steep organic declines, boosts Alzheimer’s diagnostics

 

Quanterix Q1 2026: EPS -$0.37, revenue $36.4M, maintains 2026 guidance despite steep organic declines, boosts Alzheimer’s diagnostics

  • Q1 revenue was $36.4 million, +20% YoY but organic revenue declined 21%.
  • Non-GAAP EPS for Q1 2026 was -$0.37, improving 30% YoY.
  • Simoa revenue fell 21% organically and spatial revenue declined 26% amid tough end markets.
  • Pharma revenue dropped 33% and academic revenue fell ~16% on a pro forma basis.
  • Non-GAAP gross margin held at 50.9%, supported by realized Akoya cost synergies.
  • Full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $169–$174 million and margin outlook were maintained.
  • Management expects Q2 roughly in line with Q1 and a stronger, initiative-driven second half.
  • Quanterix targets cash flow breakeven by Q4 2026, ending 2026 with about $100 million cash.
  • Company is increasing investment in LucentAD Complete, expecting FDA clearance in 2H 2026.
  • Upgraded HD-X platform is being prepared for IVD filing in 2027 to support diagnostics.
  • Key risks are instrument softness, academic funding pressure, and execution on back-half-weighted guide.
  • Main concern: Executing commercial initiatives to deliver a heavily second-half-weighted 2026 revenue plan in weak markets.
  • Mixed quarter, driven by resilient margins and diagnostics progress offset by significant organic revenue pressure.

Recursion extends cash runway into 2028, beats as AI platform yields first clinical proof

 

Recursion extends cash runway into 2028 and posts Q1 2026 EPS -$0.22 beat as AI platform yields first clinical proof

  • REC-4881 showed clinical proof-of-concept in FAP; FDA engagement underway on registrational pathway.
  • Q1 2026 non-GAAP EPS -$0.22 improved 56% YoY and beat estimates.
  • Q1 2026 revenue was $6.3M, down 57% YoY and below about $16M forecast for the quarter.
  • Cash and equivalents $665m, with operating runway guided through early 2028 without new financing.
  • Cash operating expenses down 30% YoY; 2026 cash opex guidance below $390m reaffirmed.
  • Q1 2026 net loss totaled $117.5M, versus reported quarterly revenue of $6.5M.
  • Early REC-1245 Phase I data show good tolerability, target engagement, and dose-dependent exposure.
  • REC-4539 LSD1 inhibitor dosed first patient; aims to reduce class-limiting thrombocytopenia.
  • Company expects clinical readouts for all wholly owned clinical programs over next 12–18 months.
  • Platform efficiency claims: ~90% fewer compounds synthesized and roughly 2x faster to candidates.
  • ClinTech tools reportedly cut trial enrollment times 30–60% and broaden eligible patient pools.
  • Partnerships have generated $500m+ inflows; fifth Sanofi milestone achieved, more opt-ins anticipated.
  • Main concern: long path and regulatory uncertainty before AI-derived pipeline converts into commercial revenue.
  • Mixed quarter, driven by strong AI-driven pipeline and platform progress offset by continued pre-revenue status.

The Supreme Court Needs A Clock

 by Frank Miele via RealClearPolitics,

The Supreme Court decides cases. But it also decides when to decide them – and that timing can be just as consequential as the ruling itself.

Now we have a real-world example.

In a closely watched decision last week, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Louisiana’s creation of a second majority-black congressional district violated the Constitution, holding that race cannot be used too heavily in drawing political maps, even to comply with the Voting Rights Act.

Reasonable people can agree with that conclusion. The Constitution promises equal protection under the law, and the idea that race should not dominate redistricting decisions is consistent with that principle. For years, the court has struggled to reconcile the Voting Rights Act with the Equal Protection Clause. This ruling moves that balance in a more colorblind direction.

But the substance of the ruling is only part of the story.

The timing matters too.

The case was argued twice – first in March 2025 and again in October – and for months it sat undecided, even as the justices’ questioning during oral arguments suggested that a conservative majority was likely to strike down race-driven congressional districts. Some observers questioned whether the delay reflected more than ordinary deliberation, given how the timing of the ruling could affect the current election cycle. But whatever the reason, states were left waiting, unsure how the law would ultimately be interpreted.

Meanwhile, political calendars did not stop. In an unusual step, both Republican- and Democrat-led legislatures have been working to redraw congressional maps mid-decade, partly in response to political pressure from President Trump. But they could not know whether the court’s interpretation of the racial component of redistricting would change – or how.

Each state was left without certainty as the midterm elections approached. Louisiana was already in the middle of absentee voting for congressional elections when the court’s ruling invalidated its district map. The governor said he had no choice but to suspend the House elections in response. Even prior to the ruling, Mississippi’s governor signed an executive order calling for a special legislative session to redraw districts 21 days after the much-anticipated decision. And in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis had already positioned lawmakers to act, placing redistricting on the agenda of a special session, ensuring the state could move quickly once the court ruled.

Most other states are scrambling to determine how the court’s ruling impacts them, especially during the current election cycle. For the most part, redistricting is not instantaneous. It requires legislation, legal review, and often additional litigation. Every week that passes reduces the number of states that can realistically redraw maps before the midterms. A decision handed down earlier in the term might have produced one set of outcomes. A decision handed down now may produce another.

That is not a criticism of the ruling itself. It is a recognition that timing is not neutral.

Most Americans focus on what the court decides. Far fewer consider the significance of when those decisions are released. But in a system where legal rulings intersect with political processes, timing can shape outcomes just as surely as legal reasoning.

Whether intentional or not, the court’s discretion over timing creates an opportunity for influence that extends beyond the law. A delay – even one rooted in ordinary deliberation – can affect elections, legislative agendas and, ultimately, who holds power. But what if the delays are intentional? Might the minority justices in the Voting Rights Act decision knowingly have withheld their dissents as a tactic to postpone the ruling’s impact? We will probably never know, but even the possibility suggests the need for reform.

But how could reform occur? In most areas of our government, the people hold the key. Members of Congress must answer to voters. Presidents face elections and constant political pressure. When procedures break down or public confidence erodes, those institutions are pushed – sometimes reluctantly – to adapt.

The Supreme Court is different.

Its members serve for life. Its internal processes are self-governed. Congress can shape the court at the margins – including aspects of its jurisdiction – but it does not and realistically cannot control the internal mechanics of how and when the court issues its decisions. Nor can the president. That is a function of the separation of powers.

The result is an institution largely insulated from the kinds of external pressures that force reform elsewhere in government.

Within that insulation lies a vulnerability.

Timing, left entirely to internal discretion, can become a form of influence. A majority controls when a decision is issued. But the minority, through the drafting of concurring and dissenting opinions, can affect how long deliberations continue. A chief justice may have procedural tools that shape the pace of the court’s work, but up until now, most chief justices have given court minorities considerable discretion to determine their own timelines.

We have seen how that discretion operates under pressure. In the Dobbs case, a draft majority opinion overturning Roe v. Wade was leaked weeks before the final decision was issued. During that period, the court faced intense public pressure, protests at the homes of justices, and heightened security concerns. If a majority justice had been removed from the court before the decision was finalized, through intimidation or even assassination, the result would have been a tie, effectively nullifying the ruling as a national precedent. Yet the court did not accelerate its timetable.

That is not a judgment about the justices’ motives. It is a reflection of the reality of the court’s process. A final decision does not emerge until the full cycle of majority, concurring, and dissenting opinions is complete. That means the timing of a ruling is not controlled by the majority alone. It is shaped by the pace of the court as a whole.

The power to affect that timing – even under extraordinary circumstances – rests entirely within the court itself.

That is precisely why a clock is needed. It would not assume bad faith. It would remove the opportunity for timing itself to become a form of influence.

If timing can shape outcomes, then timing should be governed.

The solution need not be complicated. Chief Justice John Roberts could adopt a formal internal rule requiring that opinions – both majority and dissenting – be finalized within a defined period. That period could be measured from oral argument or from the circulation of the majority draft. It could allow for limited extensions in extraordinary cases.

But it would establish a principle – that decisions will be issued within a reasonable and predictable timeframe.

Critics will say that such rules could rush deliberation. That concern is real. But delay has costs as well – costs that are now visible.

A court that wields immense power over the direction of the country should not also wield unlimited discretion over when that power is exercised. It’s time the Supreme Court recognized this reality – and governed itself accordingly.

Frank Miele, retired editor of the Daily Inter Lake in Kalispell, Mont., is a columnist for RealClearPolitics. His book “The Media Matrix: What If Everything You Know Is Fake” is available from his Amazon author page. Visit him at HeartlandDiaryUSA.com or follow him on Facebook @HeartlandDiaryUSA and on X/Gettr @HeartlandDiary.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/supreme-court-needs-clock

Traders point to suspicious activity in the oil market

 Oil contracts worth $1.7 billion changed hands in the hour before an Axios report sent oil prices lower Wednesday. Some experts are calling the spike in activity suspicious.

Some said a spike in trading volume in the oil market on Wednesday looked suspicious.

Trading volume in U.S. crude-oil futures suddenly spiked early Wednesday in the hour before a media report sent prices tumbling - the latest in a pattern of suspicious activity in the market for oil futures that has emerged since the start of the conflict in Iran.

At around 4:50 a.m. Eastern time, Axios published a report, citing U.S. officials, that the White House believed the U.S. and Iran were nearing a deal on a one-page memorandum to end the fighting and set a framework for future talks toward a nuclear deal.

President Trump has repeatedly said that the U.S. and Israel decided to attack Iran in late February in an effort to ensure Iran would never be able to develop a nuclear weapon.

Beginning roughly one hour before the report hit the newswires, trading in front-month West Texas Intermediate crude-oil futures (CL00) (CL.1) suddenly spiked. Roughly 17,300 contracts with an estimated value of more than $1.7 billion changed hands during this time, with the bulk of activity occurring before 4:10 a.m. Eastern, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Trading volume spiked again shortly after the Axios report hit the newswires at around 4:50 a.m. Eastern.

Several oil-market experts told MarketWatch that the activity looked like somebody with advanced knowledge trading ahead of the report. Axios and the White House didn't return requests for comment.

Bloomberg reported last month that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission was looking into a pattern of suspicious activity in the oil market around market-moving Truth Social posts and media reports. A representative for the CFTC told MarketWatch on Wednesday that the agency doesn't confirm or deny investigations.

Trading volume during the early hours of Eastern Standard Time is usually pretty subdued, said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group who is focused on energy markets and Iran. He added that he believed this morning's crude-oil trading activity was suspicious.

"This looks like a high volume of trading in the early morning, which is unusual," Brew told MarketWatch.

Other energy-market experts agreed.

Ilia Bouchouev, former president of Koch Global Partners and a leading energy-trading expert, also said that the early-morning trades today were suspicious. He added that today's action was perhaps slightly less brazen than previous oil-market activity because the trades today occurred during London morning hours. He referred to suspicious trading on April 7 that took place before morning trading in London normally picks up.

"But obviously the pattern of foul play continues," Bouchouev said in an email to MarketWatch.

Two longtime energy traders - who asked for anonymity because they were not authorized by their employers to speak publicly - said the activity looked suspicious enough to undermine confidence in the market. They also noted that definitively proving who made these trades, and whether or not they were inspired by insider knowledge, would be difficult.

Recently, a pattern of suspiciously timed trades placed on prediction markets and the oil futures markets have caught the attention of members of Congress. On Wednesday, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren posted to X a link to a Guardian story from last month highlighting some of these examples.

"Was that just luck? Looks like insider trading to me," she said. MarketWatch has reached out to Warren's office for comment.

On April 7, right before President Trump announced a temporary cease-fire with Iran, traders bet $950 million that oil prices would come down, according to a report in the New York Post. About a week later, suspicious oil trades worth $760 million took place in the 20 minutes before Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would stay open to commercial shipping. Tanker traffic through the strait has been heavily constrained since the conflict began.

There have also been allegations of insider trading in prediction markets tied to the conflict, as MarketWatch reported back in March.

Front-month WTI oil futures fell $7.19, or 7%, to $95.08 a barrel on Wednesday, while U.S. stocks DJIA SPX COMP traded higher on hopes for a permanent end to the conflict.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20260506586/traders-point-to-suspicious-activity-in-the-oil-market-on-wednesday