Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Iran can strike Europe like Arab countries, hardline daily editor says
The editor-in-chief of Iran’s hardline Kayhan newspaper said on Tuesday that Iran could strike Europe as it had struck Arab countries if European bases were used by the United States.
Hossein Shariatmadari wrote that military bases in European countries made available to Washington “can and must” become what he called legitimate targets for Iranian attacks.
“European governments know we can strike, and strike well,” Shariatmadari wrote.
He said Europe was highly vulnerable to Iranian attacks and had almost no ability to withstand them.
Iraq offers deep crude discounts as Hormuz transit risks rise - Bloomberg
Iraq is offering steep discounts on crude for May loading, but buyers face the risk of sending tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as hostilities escalate in the region, Bloomberg News reported, citing a notice from state oil marketer State Organization for Marketing of Oil.
SOMO is offering discounts of up to $33.40 a barrel on Basrah Medium crude, with cargoes loading May 1-10 priced at that level and narrowing to $26 later in the month, while Basrah Heavy is offered at $30 below official prices, the May 3 document seen by Bloomberg showed.
The notice said “force majeure shall not be applicable to this offer, given that it has been issued under existing exceptional conditions already known to all parties.”
The Strait of Hormuz has been largely impassable since fighting began in late February, and renewed US-Iran violence has raised doubts over a four-week truce, Bloomberg said, adding that loadings at Basrah fell sharply in April as tankers struggled to enter the Persian Gulf.
Iran attacks on UAE spark global condemnation, calls to honor ceasefire
Iran’s strikes on the UAE drew global condemnation on Tuesday, with several countries urging Tehran to honor the ceasefire, protect civilians and civilian infrastructure, and return to diplomacy to prevent further regional escalation.
The UAE Foreign Ministry condemned renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks as a “dangerous escalation," saying Abu Dhabi reserved its “full and legitimate right” to respond.
Donald Trump stopped short of saying the US-Iran ceasefire had been violated after reports of Iranian attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and in the United Arab Emirates,
Ali-Akbar Ahmadian, a member of Iran’s Defense Council, warned that any US action targeting shipping or energy would be met with the Islamic Republic’s “asymmetric operations.”
Sarepta, Amylyx and Neumora look ahead to key catalysts as Q1 earnings roll in
As Q1 earnings roll in, three biotechs have big quarters ahead, with two—Amylyx and Neumora Therapeutics—betting at least partly on novel assets for obesity.
While Big Pharma earnings from Eli Lilly, Bristol Myers Squibb and AbbVie have dominated analyst attention for the past few weeks, small- to medium-sized biotechs will begin reporting first quarter earnings in the next week—many with pivotal quarters ahead.
Sarepta Therapeutics, Amylyx and Neumora Therapeutics have all made headlines the past couple of years—for undesirable reasons. All are attempting to right the ship, with Amylyx and Neumora banking at least partly on a pivot to biopharma’s hottest space: obesity. As these three biotechs prepare to report earnings over the next week, analysts are focused on near-term readouts that could make or break a comeback.
Sarepta under pressure but ‘key milestones’ ahead
As Sarepta Therapeutics gears up to report first quarter earnings on Wednesday, the company is “still under pressure” from the deaths of two nonambulatory teenage patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) who were treated with the biotech’s gene therapy Elevidys, Kostas Biliouris, managing director, biotech equity research at Oppenheimer, told BioSpace. However, the company has a few key upcoming milestones “that can help the situation.”
The first, he said, is that Sarepta was expected to file for full FDA approval of DMD exon skippers Amondys 45 and Vyondys 53 by the end of April. The review is expected to take 12 months. The drugs, which Biliouris said generate about 50% of Sarepta’s total sales, are currently marketed under the FDA’s accelerated approval pathway but failed a confirmatory study in November 2025. The company is banking on real-world and safety data from the confirmatory study, suggesting both therapies have a favorable profile, according to a March press release.
The second catalyst, according to Biliouris, is the upcoming readout of a Phase 1b study testing the immunosuppressive regimen sirolimus during Elevidys treatment in 25 patients with DMD who are unable to walk, which he expects to read out in the fourth quarter. After the deaths last year, both linked to liver failure associated with the therapy’s delivery mechanism, Elevidys is no longer indicated for this patient population. The sirolimus regimen is designed to mitigate the risk of acute liver injury and acute liver failure associated with AAV gene therapy.
As nonambulatory patients account for half of all patients with DMD, a return to the market “could potentially double the revenue of Elevidys,” Biliouris said.
Also on the Elevidys front, Sarepta’s partner Roche—which owns the rights to the gene therapy outside the U.S.—announced last month that it will launch a pivotal trial in Europe. This follows a negative recommendation for Elevidys from the European Medicines Agency in July 2025. This decision by Roche is a “very positive signal” for Sarepta, Biliouris said.
“Roche will spend a lot of money and a lot of resources to run a pivotal trial,” he continued, “which means two things. Number one, Roche believes this trial will be positive, otherwise they wouldn’t do it. Number two, importantly, Roche believes that if this trial is positive, physicians will take it, patients will take it.”
Sarepta is set to report first quarter earnings on Wednesday.
Amylyx’s next act
May 7
Amylyx took a seismic hit when amyotrophic lateral sclerosis drug Relyvrio was pulled from U.S. and Canadian markets in April 2024 after it failed a Phase 3 trial. The move—which honored a pledge co-CEOs Josh Cohen and Justin Klee had made to an advisory committee—sent Amylyx’s stock tumbling and around 70% of the company’s employees out the door.
Three months later, Amylyx rebounded in a somewhat surprising pivot. The neurodegenerative-focused biotech announced in July 2024 the acquisition of a Phase 3-ready glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor antagonist, avexitide, from Eiger BioPharmaceuticals. This summer, Amylyx will learn if the diversification gamble was worth it. Pivotal topline data from the Phase 3 LUCIDITY study, which is testing the asset in post-bariatric hypoglycemia, are due in the third quarter, according to Mizuho. Primary completion of LUCIDITY was estimated to be in March, per ClinicalTrials.gov, with study completion expected in October. Mizuho expects “granularity” on the timing of this readout in the company’s Q1 earnings report on May 7, according to an April 29 note to investors.
“We remain bullish on the prospects of AMLX’s lead asset, avexitide,” the analysts wrote.
The firm will also be watching for updates on next steps for Amylyx’s Phase 3 study of AMX0035 in Wolfram syndrome and expectations ahead of biomarker data from a Phase 1 study of AMX0114 in ALS, which Mizuho expects in the first half of this year. The company announced positive long-term results from the Phase 2 open-label Helios trial of AMX0035 in Wolfram in May 2025.
Neumora Therapeutics
May 11 (estimated)
Another neuro-focused biotech aiming to take a bite of the obesity market, Neumora Therapeutics is expecting a couple of key readouts in the second quarter for its lead asset. Topline data from two Phase 3 studies of kappa opioid receptor navacaprant in major depressive disorder, KOASTAL -2 and KOASTAL-3, are expected “likely in mid-to-late June,” according to Mizuho.
“We favor NMRA for its novel pipeline that addresses both neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative diseases of high unmet need and large commercial opportunity,” the analysts wrote on April 29 ahead of the company’s first quarter results, which Mizuho expects on May 11. “That said, negative first Phase 3 data (from the KOASTAL-1 study) for lead asset navacaprant has re-set expectations (and the stock price).”
In January 2025, navacaprant failed to demonstrate a statistically significant improvement on KOASTAL-1’s primary endpoint of change from baseline in the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale total score at 6 weeks. The asset also missed the trial’s secondary endpoint of a change from baseline on the Snaith-Hamilton Pleasure Scale. Neumora’s stock fell from $11 to just over $2 in the aftermath.
Mizuho will be looking for updates on the navacaprant program during Neumora’s Q1 call, which the firm predicts will take place on May 11.
However, Mizuho highlighted “upcoming news flow through 2026 & 2027 for pipeline opportunities” that could “provide opportunities for stock inflection.” The analysts specifically pointed to Phase 1 data for NMRA-215 in obesity. With this asset, Neumora is “proceeding cautiously following a review of preclinical toxicology results,” Mizuho wrote. In October 2025, the biotech reported preclinical data for the asset showing “class-leading weight loss of up to 19% as a monotherapy with semaglutide-like induction and 26% in combination with semaglutide.”
Neumora is developing NMRA-215, a NLRP3 inhibitor that targets neuroinflammation mediated by this inflammasome, for both obesity and Parkinson’s disease.
Trump's "Project Vault" Plans To Initially Buy Rare Earths From China
As we reported in February, the US Export-Import Bank’s proposed rare earth stockpiling initiative would initially source critical minerals from anywhere in the world - including China, an official involved in the project revealed to Bloomberg. The $12 billion Project Vault would later shift to a replenishment model that prioritizes domestic production first, followed by allied nations and other sources as a last resort, executives including Ex-Im Chief Banking Officer Brian Greeley said lastt week, unveiling some of the first details publicly announced on the project.
Greeley spoke alongside representatives of Glencore Plc. and Hartree Partners LP, which will be among trading houses procuring materials for Vault. The project aims to build an immediate buffer against critical mineral supply shocks while using future purchases to send a stronger demand signal to US and friendly-nation producers.
Vault — which combines about $2 billion in private capital with a $10 billion Ex-Im loan — is President Trump’s latest effort to build an alternative supply chain for the materials, which are key for the production of electric vehicle batteries, solar panels and other low-carbon technologies. China is the dominant supplier of critical minerals worldwide.
The recent panel was the most robust public discussion of Vault since Ex-Im revealed the program in February. For nearly three months, metals investors, traders and consumers have sought details as the government worked behind the scenes to flesh out the project, according to Bloomberg.
Attendees packed a conference room at a hotel in Washington, DC, to get details on Vault’s sourcing hierarchy and payment structure. After brief introductory remarks, the panel unexpectedly opened up the floor to an almost hour-long question-and-answer session.
The program’s so-called waterfall would give preference to domestic suppliers even when their material comes at a premium to allied alternatives, with participating manufacturers expected to accept that trade-off as part of joining the program, panelists said. The initial stockpile fill, however, would be driven chiefly by availability, reflecting the reality that some of the roughly 60 minerals under consideration are produced only in limited geographies and, in some cases, remain heavily influenced by China.
Vault is being structured as a demand-driven vehicle rather than a government-directed stockpile, the panelists revealed. Manufacturers would determine which minerals are stored, with the program then working with traders to secure supply. It’s designed to give US firms more leverage in opaque and fragmented markets where individual buyers often struggle to source smaller volumes efficiently or at transparent prices.
On storage, Greeley said the project will begin by relying on warehouse networks already controlled by trading partners and procurement providers. Over time, Vault is expected to develop its own storage network, either by building facilities or leasing them. A mature system could combine its own sites with third-party warehouses.
Panelists said the use of specialist traders would also be tailored to individual metals. Rather than sending orders into an open bidding process, Vault is expected to match procurement to firms with expertise in specific markets, allowing traders with relationships in cobalt, rare earths or other niche material sectors to handle those flows. The goal, panelists said, is to preserve pricing discipline, improve execution and avoid creating a scramble for hard-to-find materials.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/trumps-project-vault-plans-initially-buy-rare-earths-china
Putin Fires Head Of Aerospace Forces After Devastating Ukrainian Drone Attacks
There are reports out of Russia of another high level firing within the defense ministry. This time, President Putin has reportedly sacked the head of Russia's Aerospace Forces, which is the armed services branch responsible for the country's air defenses.
Moscow-based news outlet RBC reports that General Viktor Afzalov has been replaced by Colonel General Alexander Chaiko. Afzalov had first been appointed to the command post in 2023.
However, the Kremlin did not immediately comment on or confirm the shake-up, but it comes amid growing anger among the Russian populace and among leadership following a series of major Ukrainian drone attacks.
For example, the major Black Sea hub of the Tuapse Oil Refinery has been struck four times in the last several weeks, creating a local environmental disaster which has also seen days of large fires.
The recent series of highly destructive Ukrainian drone attacks has even reached faraway Perm, near the Ural mountains, where an oil complex there was reported struck.
These latest drone waves have not been stopped by Russian anti-air defenses, and Ukraine's cheap but highly capable drone attacks have appeared to easily thwart any countermeasures.
As for the new head of the Aerospace Forces, he takes command amid a high pressure situation. If he can't stop the ongoing drone onslaught, then he too could face quick removal:
Alexander Chaiko was born in 1971 in the Moscow region. He graduated from the Moscow Higher Combined Arms Command School. According to the Ministry of Defense website, he served in positions ranging from reconnaissance platoon commander to commander of the First Tank Army of the Western Military District. In 2001, he graduated from the Frunze Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces. In 2012, he graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff.
He held the positions of deputy commander of the combined arms army of the Central Military District, commander of the combined arms army of the Western Military District, chief of staff – first deputy, and commander of the troops of the Eastern Military District. In 2019, he was appointed deputy chief of the General Staff.
Chaiko has already been sanctioned by the European Union, as he's stood accused serving as a lead commander during the Russian occupation of Bucha - after which Moscow was accused of indiscriminate killings of civilians, which the Kremlin denies.
RBK reported that Colonel-General Aleksandr Chaiko (left) was appointed commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, replacing Colonel-General Viktor Afzalov (right).
— John Hardie (@JohnH105) May 4, 2026
Chaiko is a former Ground Forces officer who began the 2022 invasion as commander of the Eastern Military… pic.twitter.com/3FOUfTI4KA
Meanwhile, last week Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky announced "a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit the potential of Russia's war."
Despite Ukrainian forces being slowly rolled back on the battlefield in the east, drone warfare remains about the only leverage that Kiev has at this point.