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Thursday, March 19, 2026

Revolution, Ascendis Named Top Buyout Targets as Industry Awaits The Big One

 

Prime biotech buyout targets such as Revolution Medicines and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals have recently found themselves in the middle of acquisition rumors—though no deals have panned out so far.

Some experts say it’s high time for the pharma industry to be shaken up by a mega-merger between two powerhouses. But for cautious dealmakers, several smaller biotechs could be prime takeover targets.

These potential targets include Revolution Medicines, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Ascendis Pharma and Rhythm Pharmaceuticals, according to analysts at RBC Capital Markets. In a Wednesday note to investors, the firm pointed out that a couple of these companies have previously “demonstrated pharma interest.”

Revolution Medicines was the subject of buyout rumors in January, with The Wall Street Journal naming both Merck and AbbVie as alleged suitors. Earlier reporting from The Financial Times had Merck’s buyout bid at between $28 billion and $32 billion. Neither deal materialized: AbbVie denied the rumors soon after they broke and Merck reportedly backed off after failing to come to an agreement with Revolution on the price.

Revolution executives, however, don’t seem too concerned that the talks have fallen through. “It’s not our goal to build something big,” CEO Mark Goldsmith said at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in January. “It’s our goal to build something that’s impactful.”

Likely driving the interest in Revolution is its lead asset daraxonrasib, an investigational RAS(ON) inhibitor being developed for patients with RAS-mutated pancreatic cancer. In September 2025, the drug elicited a 29% confirmed objective response rate in the second-line setting, while ORR reached 47% when daraxonrasib was used as a frontline therapy. A few weeks later, the FDA awarded the therapy a Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher, enabling a much shorter review period.

Also generating buyout buzz recently is BioCryst, which earlier this week saw a stock bump after insider blog Betaville reported that the biotech could be the target of a takeover from a company with market cap over $15 billion. As with Revolution, these rumors have yet to play out, but SeekingAlpha said in a March 17 analysis that the company’s franchise “is real.”

BioCryst “remains a cash-generative orphan drug player,” SeekingAlpha continued, with the hereditary angioedema drug Orladeyo at its core. The drug was first approved in 2020 and last year made $601.8 million.

Meanwhile, Ascendis, which RBC named in its Wednesday note as a prime target, recently secured an FDA approval for Yuviwel, an achondroplasia drug that will go toe-to-toe with BioMarin’s Voxzogo, offering the key advantage of being dosed weekly as opposed to the latter’s daily schedule.

Rhythm, despite suffering a late-stage setback for its weight loss injection Imcivree in genetic forms of obesity, is awaiting a key regulatory decision that could expand the drug into hypothalamic obesity, a market opportunity that could exceed $2 billion. The decision is expected by March 20.

Outside of these smaller targets, analysts say that pharma is ripe for a mega-merger that would see the combination of two powerhouses, as patent cliffs threaten some of the industry’s top-selling products and companies scramble to replenish their pipelines with similarly heavyweight drugs.

The last deal of such scale happened in 2023, when Pfizer absorbed Seagen for $43 billion. Deals have mellowed since, but consolidation of this magnitude could be just around the corner, experts told BioSpace.

“Companies facing revenue declines in 2025–2030 may need to pursue larger deals that provide immediate revenue contribution,” Leerink Partners said in its October 2025 M&A report.

https://www.biospace.com/business/as-analysts-await-pharma-on-pharma-megadeals-biotechs-offer-attractive-alternatives-for-the-cautious

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