Galera Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: GRTX), a biopharma company that is working on novel therapeutics for transforming radiotherapy treatment in cancer, recently IPO’d, offering 5 million shares at $12 apiece.
Following the expiry of the IPO quiet period, Citigroup analyst Yigal Nochomovitz initiated coverage of Galera with a Buy rating and $20 price target.
Credit Suisse analyst Evan Seigerman initiated coverage of the shares with a Neutral rating and $14 price target.
New Player with a Novel Approach In Radiation Oncology Market
Galera has demonstrated very good proof-of-concept Phase 2b data for lead drug GC4419 in the prevention of severe oral mucositis – a radiation side effect common in head and neck cancer, Nochomovitz said in a note.
The analyst assigned a 80% probability of the FDA approving GC4419 for he indication, with the pipeline asset most likely to become standard-of-care.
Nochomovitz also expects positive readthrough for GC4419 in a second indication – esophagitis in lung cancer.
“We see potential upside for second asset GC4711 if initial proof-of-concept data in locally-advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) are positive,” Citi said in the note.
The firm estimates peak risk-adjusted revenues of $370 million for oral mucositis, $200 million for esophagitis and $9 million for LAPC.
Commercialization Faces Significant Challenges
Galera’s lead asset GC4419, an intravenous administered, small molecule dismutase mimetic currently in Phase 3 development for oral mucositis, addresses an unmet need with differentiated efficacy, but there are likely to be headwinds to broad commercialization due to pipeline competition and logistical challenges, Seigerman said.
The analyst expects the pivotal Phase 3 data from the ROMAN study to be positive, supporting approval by 2023. Commercial launch is likely by 2023, with the asset estimated to rake in unadjusted peak sales of over $200 million by 2025.
With GC4419 required to be administered as a 60-minute infusion immediately prior to radiation, the analyst sees only a limited number of facilities as capable of offering the IV infusion as well as radiation.
“We see a favorable risk/reward for the early pipeline for esophagitis and anti-cancer efficacy improvement, but the path to commercialization remains unclear, Credit Suisse wrote in the note.
Therefore, the firm said it is assigning no value to indications outside of oral mucositis, although it sees upside to its forecast stemming from pipeline progress.