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Saturday, February 13, 2021

SPAC CM Life Sciences (CMLF) Surges as Cathie Wood's ARK Accumulates New 1.55M Shares

 SPAC CM Life Sciences (NASDAQ: CMLF) is gaining 16% after Cathie Wood's ARK Investment fund ARKG (ARK Genomic Revolution ETF) disclosed it initiated a new 1,546,926 share stake.

CM Life Sciences is a SPAC that announced this week that it is merging with Sema4, an AI- and machine learning-driven patient-centered genomic and clinical data intelligence company. CM Life is sponsored by affiliates of Casdin Capital, LLC and Corvex Management LP.

Wood has had a hot hand with picks in Tesla and others, so here latest moves are tracked carefully.

US Can Reach Herd Immunity by Summer - Morgan Stanley

 In case the US manages to increase the current vaccination rate from about 1.5 million doses per day to 2.5 million doses, we could have about 75% of the eligible population (12+) vaccinated by mid-summer, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison in a research note.

He discusses 6 different scenarios, where scenario 1 exceeds investor expectations, while scenarios 2-4 meet investors’ expectations, and scenarios 5-6 are below expectations. He also notes that the US has firm orders that total 900 million doses.

“Based on the current distribution from approved vaccines, the US will collectively receive at least 200M doses by the end of March (100M each from Pfizer/Moderna) and at least 500M doses by the end of June (200M/200M/100M from Moderna/Pfizer/J&J). With a total US population of ~330M, the doses from Pfizer/Moderna can cover 200M people (2shots/person) and the doses from J&J can cover 100M people (1 shot/person).

“Thus, only 30- 60M more doses are necessary to have coverage for the entire population. Note that the currently approved vaccines under EUA have been evaluated in individuals aged 16+ (Pfizer) or 18+ years (Moderna), and we would expect them to be approved in 12-16 y.o. by mid-to-late summer,” he writes.

In addition to established vaccine frontrunners, Harrison expects J&J to supply at least 15 million doses by the end of May. Therefore, he believes the US can reach herd immunity by the summer.

“We highlight that the willingness of people to be vaccinated is expected to be a major driver of the uptake and has recently improved based on the December CDC survey (here). 49% of adults are now definitely expecting to be vaccinated (up from 39% in September) and only 32% said they won't be vaccinated (down from 38% in September).”

According to the bank’s projections, the vaccines for the younger population are unlikely to be approved for pediatrics before 2022.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/US+Can+Reach+Herd+Immunity+by+Summer+-+Morgan+Stanley/17954979.html

NexImmune (NEXI) IPO Opens 35% Higher

 Friday's IPO for NexImmune Inc. (NASDAQ: NEXI) opened for trading at $23.01 after pricing its upsized initial public offering of 6,471,000 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $17.00 per share.

Barclays Capital Inc., Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Raymond James & Associates, Inc. and Allen & Company LLC are acting as the joint book-running managers for this offering.

https://www.streetinsider.com/IPOs/NexImmune+%28NEXI%29+IPO+Opens+35%25+Higher/17964130.html

GoodRx (GDRX) PT Raised to $70 at Cowen

 from $50: Strong Market Position and an 'Overstated' Amazon Threat.

https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/GoodRx+%28GDRX%29+PT+Raised+to+%2470+at+Cowen+on+Strong+Market+Position+and+an+Overstated+Amazon+Threat/17963894.html

Alien Cells May Explain COVID 'Brain Fog'

 The long-term neurologic symptoms such as "brain fog" experienced by some patients with COVID-19 may be caused by a unique pathology — the occlusion of brain capillaries by large megakaryocyte cells, a new report suggests.

The authors report five separate post-mortem cases from patients who died with COVID-19 in which large cells resembling megakaryocytes were identified in cortical capillaries. Immunohistochemistry subsequently confirmed their megakaryocyte identity.

They point out that the finding is of interest as — to their knowledge — megakaryocytes have not been found in the brain before.

The observations are described in a research letter published online February 12 in JAMA Neurology.

Bone Marrow Cells in the Brain

Lead author David Nauen, MD, PhD, a neuropathologist from Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, told Medscape Medical News he identified these cells in the first analysis of post-mortem brain tissue from a patient who had COVID-19.

"Some other viruses cause changes in the brain such as encephalopathy, and as neurologic symptoms are often reported in COVID-19, I was curious to see if similar effects were seen in brain post-mortem samples from patients who had died with the infection," Nauen said.

On his first analysis of the brain tissue of a patient who had COVID-19, Nauen saw no evidence of viral encephalitis, but he observed some "unusually large" cells in the brain capillaries.

"I was taken aback; I couldn't figure out what they were. Then I realized these cells were megakaryocytes from the bone marrow. I have never seen these cells in the brain before. I asked several colleagues and none of them had either. After extensive literature searches, I could find no evidence of megakaryocytes being in the brain," Nauen noted.

Megakaryocytes, he explained, are "very large cells, and the brain capillaries are very small — just large enough to let red blood cells and lymphocytes pass through. To see these very large cells in such vessels is extremely unusual. It looks like they are causing occlusions."  

By occluding flow through individual capillaries, these large cells could cause ischemic alteration in a distinct pattern, potentially resulting in an atypical form of neurologic impairment, the authors suggest.

"This might alter the hemodynamics and put pressure on other vessels, possibly contributing to the increased risk of stroke that has been reported in COVID-19," Nauen said. Although, he reported, none of the samples he examined came from patients with COVID-19 who had had a stroke.

Other than the presence of megakaryocytes in the capillaries, the brain looked normal, he said. He has now examined samples from 15 brains of patients who had COVID-19 and megakaryocytes have been found in the brain capillaries in five cases.

New Neurologic Complication

Classic encephalitis found with other viruses has not been reported in brain post-mortem examinations from patients who had COVID-19, Nauen noted.

"The cognitive issues such as grogginess associated with COVID-19 would indicate problems with the cortex but that hasn't been documented. This occlusion of a multitude of tiny vessels by megalokaryocytes may offer some explanation of the cognitive issues. This is a new kind of vascular insult seen on pathology, and suggests a new kind of neurologic complication," he added.

The big question is what these megakaryocytes are doing in the brain.

"Megakaryocytes are bone marrow cells. They are not immune cells. Their job is to produce platelets to help the blood clot. They are not normally found outside the bone marrow, but they have been reported in other organs in COVID-19 patients."

"But the big puzzle associated with finding them in the brain is how they get through the very fine network of blood vessels in the lungs. The geometry just doesn't work. We don't know which part of the COVID inflammatory response makes this happen," said Nauen.

The authors suggest one possibility is that altered endothelial or other signaling is recruiting megakaryocytes into the circulation and somehow permitting them to pass through the lungs.

"We need to try and understand if there is anything distinctive about these megakaryocytes — which proteins are they expressing that may explain why they are behaving in such an unusual way," said Nauen.

Noting that many patients with severe COVID-19 have problems with clotting, and megakaryocytes are part of the clotting system, he speculated that some sort of aberrant message is being sent to these cells.

"It is notable that we found megakaryocytes in cortical capillaries in 33% of cases examined. Because the standard brain autopsy sections taken sampled at random [are] only a minute portion of the cortical volume, finding these cells suggests the total burden could be considerable," the authors write.

Nauen added that to his knowledge, this is the first report of such observations, and the next step is to look for similar findings in larger sample sizes.

JAMA Neurol. Published online February 12, 2021. Research Letter

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/94577

Spike in kids with COVID-19 means Israel unlikely to open schools

 While adults over the age of 40 are getting vaccinated at an almost miraculous rate, Israel is seeing a sharp rise in the number of children and teens getting infected with coronavirus, according to Health Ministry statistics.

Now, there is a possibility that even when the government starts to lift the lockdown, schools may not be able to open as originally assumed.

More than 50,000 children and teens have been diagnosed with coronavirus since the start of the month, many more than Israel saw in any month during the first or second waves.
“We got a letter from the Israeli Association of Pediatrics that says they are very worried about the rate of disease in younger students,” Health Minister Yuli Edelstein told The Jerusalem Post. “This is something we did not witness in previous waves of corona.”
Jerusalem’s Hadassah-University Medical Center last weekend opened Israel’s first coronavirus intensive-care unit for children with four patients. Today, according to the hospital, there are seven children being treated at the hospital, among them two who are intubated and in serious condition.
Instead of around 29% of new cases coming from children and teens, as in the second wave, now they are around 40% of cases, Public Health Services head Sharon Alroy-Preis said in the Knesset on Monday. The greatest spike was in children between the ages of six and nine, she said.
And according to Cyrille Cohen, head of Bar-Ilan University’s immunotherapy laboratory, the numbers seem to be rising.
The healthcare system is having difficulty explaining the outbreak, but one hypothesis is that it is tied to the British mutation, which has spread rapidly across Israel.

“The British variant is more contagious, so it increases the chances of infection in children,” Cohen told the Post.
During the earlier waves, it seemed as if children were less likely to contract the virus and even more unlikely to experience symptoms, he said.
One idea for why children contracted the virus less was that they have fewer angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) proteins on the surface of their cells, Cohen said. ACE2 acts as the receptor for coronavirus, allowing it to infect cells. Fewer receptors would make them less susceptible to the virus.
“But now we are talking about a variant,” he stressed. The British variant is known to be between 30% and 74% more infectious, which means that even children would be more likely to catch this strain.
Another change might have to do with the population that is being vaccinated, around 80% of the 60-plus population, which means Israel is seeing the average age of infected people going down.
“We are protecting certain parts of the population, and other parts are less protected,” Cohen said. Children should not be vaccinated because they were not included in any full Phase III clinical trial, and there is not enough data on the impact of the vaccines on them, he said.
Right now, it is a question of numbers: There are almost 60,000 new cases of coronavirus diagnosed a week, a large number for a small country like Israel, Cohen said. Statistically, Israel is seeing more children affected and therefore more severe cases.
“If the pie is bigger, then there will be more children with the disease and more of them coming to the hospital,” said Prof. Yechiel Schlesinger, medical director of Wilf Children’s Hospital at Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Jerusalem.
For the most part, children are still getting mild cases of the disease, he said. Most children do not even need to see a doctor, and of those who do, few are sent to the hospital and even fewer to the ICU, Schlesinger said.
But the rise in cases is raising questions about when and if schools can open again. Last week, Education Minister Yoav Gallant was pushing to open the entire school system at the end of lockdown. But on Tuesday morning, he told Army Radio he did not want to be responsible for children getting sick and that he would first consult with medical experts before pushing for such a move.
Students in grades 11 and 12 are getting vaccinated to allow them to go to school and resume classes. However, it takes four weeks from the first jab until a person reaches 95% protection, according to Pfizer’s protocol.
Moreover, Cohen said, there is still a question of whether people who are vaccinated can still contract the virus and infect others, which could put unvaccinated teachers, friends or family members at risk when these students return to school.
According to Edelstein, only 34% of the 200,000 eligible educational staff have been inoculated, despite pressure by the Teachers’ Union and Education Ministry to prioritize them. The low rate of vaccination would impact opening schools and the rate of isolation when classes do begin, he said.
Moreover, while schools might not be the “initiating factor” when it comes to spreading the virus, they are a “contributing factor,” Alroy-Preis said Monday.
“Even with capsules, these are still larger gatherings,” she said. “At the moment, with the British variant it is worse.”
“I don’t think any normal person would ask for the opening of schools right now,” Edelstein told the Post.
Both Cohen and Schlesinger agreed with that position.
“I think it would be very difficult to open schools in this situation.” Cohen said.
“This is a complex question, and you have to weigh the risks of opening schools against not opening schools,” Schlesinger said. “It is my gut feeling to wait longer... I would lean toward keeping them closed.”

CA expanding vaccine eligibility to 16-64s with underlying health conditions

 California is expanding the list of people eligible for coronavirus vaccine by another 4 to 6 million people.


State Health Director Dr. Mark Ghaly said Friday that starting March 15 people between ages 16-64 who are severely disabled, and those with health conditions that put them at high risk can get in line for shots.

Among those included are people with certain cancer, heart, lung and kidney conditions, as well as pregnant women, those with Down syndrome, organ transplant recipients and the severely obese.

California has been plagued by vaccine shortages and Ghaly acknowledged he's not sure how long it will take for the federal supply of shots to meet demand.

The state's memo says providers can use their judgment "to vaccinate individuals age 16-64 who are deemed to be at the very highest risk for morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 as a direct result of" a series of various medical conditions.

This represents a significant expansion of the state's population that is eligible for vaccine. Currently eligibility is limited to people 65 and over, health-care workers and residents and staff at long-term nursing facilities.


It comes at a time when vaccine supply is very limited throughout the state. In Los Angeles County, for example, next week a majority of vaccination sites will be limited to providing second doses and not first doses of vaccine.

Los Angeles County is receiving an average of about 200,000 doses of vaccine a week, which is far short of the capacity of the county's various sites to vaccinate 600,000 per week, county health officials say.

If vaccine eligibility is expanded without additional supply, officials say it will be that much harder to keep up with demand.

"We definitely will need a greater supply of vaccine," said Dr. Paul Simon, chief science officer for the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health.