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Friday, January 3, 2025

Ned Davis Warns It May Cut Exposure to US Equities After Selloff

 


  • Key stock/bond composite for equities nears bearish territory
  • Thursday note follows worst month for stocks since April
  • Ned Davis Research has kept a bullish recommendation toward US equities for more than a year, but that may change soon if the weakness seen over the past month persists.

    Tim Hayes, the firm’s chief global investment strategist who correctly called the current bull run in US stocks, is closely monitoring whether Ned Davis’s Stock/Bond Composite extends its recent decline. Traders use this key indicator to assess the direction of equities, and it’s been sinking as markets are coming to grips with the already-slim chances of the Federal Reserve lowering borrowing costs again soon.

  • https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-03/ned-davis-warns-it-may-cut-exposure-to-us-equities-after-selloff

'Over 800 Biases Uncovered' As Pentagon Ends AI Chatbot Pilot Program For Military Medicine

 The US Department of Defense’s Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) has concluded a pilot program focused on using AI chatbots in military medical services.  

In a Jan. 2 announcement, the DoD said the Crowdsourced AI Red-Teaming (CAIRT) Assurance Program pilot focused on using large-language models (LLM) for clinical note summarization and as medical advisers in the military.

It comes as more AI firms have begun offering their products to the US military and defense contractors to investigate their usefulness in military applications.

CoinTelegraph's Stephen Katte reports that, according to the DoD, the pilot was a red-teaming effort conducted by technology nonprofit Humane Intelligence.

It attracted over 200 independent external participants, including clinical providers and healthcare analysts, who compared three prominent chatbot models.

Analysts from the Defense Health Agency and the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences also collaborated with the other participants, testing for potential system weaknesses and flaws while the chatbots were used.

According to the DoD, the pilot discovered a few hundred possible issues when using chatbots in military medical applications.

“The exercise uncovered over 800 findings of potential vulnerabilities and biases related to employing these capabilities in these prospective use cases.”

“This exercise will result in repeatable and scalable output via the development of benchmark data sets, which can be used to evaluate future vendors and tools for alignment with performance expectations,” the DoD said.

The Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office’s lead for the initiative, Matthew Johnson, said the results will also be used to shape future DoD research and development of Generative AI (GenAI) systems that may be deployed in the future.

The CDAO was established in June 2022 to oversee and advance the integration of digital and artificial intelligence technologies within the US military and defense operations.

Last November, a bipartisan US congressional commission said the country should focus on developing an initiative similar to the Manhattan Project to advance artificial intelligence development amid growing competition with China.

Among a list of specific recommendations, the commission said the US secretary of defense should mark AI projects with the highest national priority designation.

Meanwhile, social media and tech firm Meta has started offering its artificial intelligence model Llama to the US military and defense contractors for national security purposes.

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/over-800-biases-uncovered-pentagon-ends-ai-chatbot-pilot-program-military-medicine

'Skeptics Question Transmissible Alzheimer's Claims'

 In early 2024, we reported new research that suggested Alzheimer's disease may be transmissible

opens in a new tab or window under rare conditions. The study fueled debates in the Alzheimer's research community, which we discuss in this follow-up story.

Five U.K. patients treated with human growth hormone from cadaveric pituitary glands when they were children later developed early dementia or other changes consistent with Alzheimer's disease, John Collinge, MD, of University College London, and co-authors said in Nature Medicineopens in a new tab or window in January 2024.

Four of these patients were between ages 38 and 49 when their cognitive symptoms started; the fifth was 55. Two had biomarker changes that supported a possible Alzheimer's diagnosis. Two did not have molecular biomarker testing but showed progressive brain atrophy on imaging. One had Alzheimer's pathology detected at autopsy.

The findings did not mean that Alzheimer's could be transmitted between people during daily activities or routine medical care, Collinge emphasized. "The patients we have described were given a specific and long-discontinued medical treatment, which involved injecting patients with material now known to have been contaminated with disease-related proteins," he stated when the study was published.

"However, the recognition of transmission of amyloid-beta pathology in these rare situations should lead us to review measures to prevent accidental transmission via other medical or surgical procedures, in order to prevent such cases occurring in the future," he said.

Was This Alzheimer's Disease?

The findings fueled discussions almost immediately on the global networking website AlzForumopens in a new tab or window. Several experts said it seemed likely that Alzheimer's pathology could be transmitted iatrogenically.

Six months later, a group of researchers including neurologist Avindra Nath, MD, of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, published a perspective article in Alzheimer's & Dementiaopens in a new tab or window stating that the cases did not provide evidence that Alzheimer's disease was transmitted by cadaveric growth hormone.

"Contrary to the title of the paper that suggests that these patients developed Alzheimer's disease, a description of the patients and their findings suggests that most of them did not meet criteria for Alzheimer's," Nath said.

"Each individual had different clinical manifestations and course of illness," he told MedPage Today.

"There were alternative explanations for their clinical findings, and they lacked laboratory support of Alzheimer's disease, except for one individual," Nath continued. "And the presence of Alzheimer's-like pathology in a single individual could very well be by chance alone."

The presentations of the cases were highly variable and not consistent clinically or pathologically with probable or definite Alzheimer's disease, Nath and co-authors argued.

"In people with progressive cognitive decline, the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease requires a demonstration of amyloid and tau pathology, or amyloid and tau biomarkers," they wrote. "Extensive tau pathology is not demonstrated, and some also lack amyloid beta pathology."

"If the findings of this paper were to be correct, it would have important public health ramifications," Nath noted. "Hence, it is critical that there be a high bar for making such conclusions."

Surveillance Continues

More than 50 years ago, pioneering studies showed that neurodegenerative diseases like kuruopens in a new tab or window and Creutzfeldt-Jakob diseaseopens in a new tab or window were transmissible. In 1982, Stanley Prusiner, MD, of the University of California San Francisco, demonstrated that a single misfolded proteinopens in a new tab or window, or prion, was sufficient to do so. Prusiner later received the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicineopens in a new tab or window for this work.

Since then, there's been growing concern that other neurodegenerative diseases could be transmitted, Nath said.

"There have been several studies in which there has been iatrogenic transmission of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by exposure to brain tissue," he observed.

Between 1959 and 1985, cadaver-derived human growth hormone was used around the world to treat young patients for pituitary insufficiency. The product was withdrawn after some patients received prion-contaminated cadaveric growth hormone and subsequently died of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

In 2015, Collinge and co-authors reported that some of the U.K. patients who died of iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease had amyloid-beta pathologyopens in a new tab or window at autopsy. Whether they also had Alzheimer's symptoms wasn't known because Creutzfeldt-Jakob, a universally fatal prion disease that progresses rapidly, may have masked any symptoms.

In the U.S., nearly 7,700 children were treatedopens in a new tab or window with pituitary human growth hormone under the National Hormone and Pituitary Program (NHPP) from 1963 to 1985. In 1977, the NHPP started a safer purification method and later fully switched to recombinant human growth hormone.

"The NIH in collaboration with the CDC has been overseeing the surveillance of the approximately 7,700 individuals who received cadaveric human growth hormone in the United States in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s through the NHPP," Nath said. "We are currently evaluating all deaths in the NHPP cohort -- 1,480 to date -- to determine whether there is a signal for an increase in Alzheimer's disease."

The cohort also is being monitored for other neurodegenerative diseases, he added. To date, there's been no conclusive evidence for other diseases except possible cerebral amyloid angiopathy, he said.

Despite the questions raised by Nath and colleagues, Collinge maintains that his 2024 paper is sound. "With the greatest of respect to these authors, we are describing a new condition, iatrogenic Alzheimer's disease," he told MedPage Today.

"Just as iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease has different clinical and pathologic features to sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, we would expect differences with classical Alzheimer's disease," Collinge said. "The full phenotypic range of iatrogenic Alzheimer's disease -- which has an acquired, rather than sporadic, etiology -- will emerge and be better understood as more cases are reported."

https://www.medpagetoday.com/neurology/alzheimersdisease/113634

'Which Respiratory Virus Do I Have?'

 It started with a tickle in your throat. Then, it evolved into congestion, and maybe a little cough. Perhaps you lost your voice.

You might have had a slight fever that went away with ibuprofen, but you never felt bad enough to stay in bed all day.

So, which respiratory virus invaded your cells?

Several types of viruses could be the culprit: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, parainfluenza viruses, metapneumovirus, rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, enteroviruses, and adenoviruses are among the most common.

However, most people who are infected will probably never know which one rallied their immune system.

"They are hard to distinguish one from the next because they all have similar respiratory symptoms of congestion, cough, runny nose, fever. They all start that way," said Paul Offit, MD, of Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. "There's really no distinguishing them unless you test."

Testing isn't likely to happen unless you're hospitalized. A typical Quest Diagnostics respiratory panelopens in a new tab or window, for example, includes adenovirus, influenza, parainfluenza, rhinovirus, enterovirus, metapneumovirus, and RSV.

"Typically what we see at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia in winter is RSV, number one; and right behind it is influenza," Offit said. "Then, you'll see things like human metapneumovirus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus."

Outside of hospitalization, respiratory virus testing isn't as common, which means there's less surveillance data on infections.

"We do not track morbidity or mortality of all of these viruses," said William Schaffner, MD, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee. "We know in general that many of them are seasonal, increasing in late fall, winter, and into spring, and they provide the great background of viral infections with which every human on this planet is familiar -- the runny nose, the sore throat, feeling out of sorts for a day or 2 or 3 and then slowly getting better."

While all of these viruses typically prompt similar symptoms, there are a few known to have particular manifestations, such as parainfluenza being responsible for the majority of croup in children, and RSV being a frequent cause of bronchiolitis in infants.

Here are the key features and differences among each of the most common annual respiratory nuisances.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus

RSV is a single-stranded RNA virus in the Pneumoviridae family and the Orthopneumovirus genus. It was first isolated in 1955 from chimpanzees with respiratory illness at the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, according to a report in Nature Reviews Microbiologyopens in a new tab or window.

It's the most common cause of bronchiolitis in infants, and can be severe in older adults as well. Up to 10,000 adults die each year in the U.S. from RSV, Offit noted.

"RSV has this reputation as a pediatric virus, but over the last 15 years, we've accumulated data that people over 65, particularly those with underlying lung or heart disease, can be affected by RSV just as severely as influenza," Schaffner said. "And in some years the impact of RSV has been as serious as the impact of flu."

In most cases, however, symptoms are usually mild and resemble the common cold. These include congestion, runny nose, sneezing, dry cough, low-grade fever, and sore throat.

Influenza

Influenza is an RNA virus in the Orthomyxoviridae family and its most common subtypes are A and B. Infection typically leads to more severe symptoms than the common cold. These include fever, aches, fatigue, cough, and sore throat.

People infected with influenza are most contagious in the first 3 days after the illness starts, according to the CDCopens in a new tab or window.

The virus can be more severe in young children and in older adults, and the U.S. typically sees some 20,000 to 25,000 influenza deaths per year, though that number can reach as high as 60,000 annually, Offit said.

Parainfluenza Viruses

These single-stranded RNA viruses belong to the Paramyxoviridae family, and fall into two genera: Respirovirus and Rubulavirus, and overall there are four types (1-4) and two subtypes (4a and 4b), according to the CDCopens in a new tab or window.

Parainfluenza viruses are the most common culprit in cases of croupopens in a new tab or window, infamous for terrifying parents with the raspy sound of stridor.

By age 5, almost all children are seropositive, and people can be reinfected multiple times in their lifetime, resulting in mild illness with cold-like symptoms. Older adults and people who are immunocompromised have a higher risk of severe infection, according to the CDC.

Metapneumovirus

This single-stranded RNA virus in the Paramyxoviridae family was discovered in the Netherlands in 2001, but evidence suggests its been in circulation for at least five decades, according to the Encyclopedia of Microbiologyopens in a new tab or window.

Common symptoms include cough, fever, and congestion, but it can lead to more severe disease in young children, older adults, and people who are immunocompromised, according to the CDCopens in a new tab or window.

Rhinoviruses

Rhinoviruses are the most common cause of the common cold, according to the CDCopens in a new tab or window. These single-stranded RNA viruses belong to the Picornaviridae family and have three types: A, B, and C.

They were first isolated in the 1950sopens in a new tab or window by Winston Price, MD, at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, during an effort to identify the cause of the common cold.

Coronaviruses

While coronaviruses are now widely known due to the pandemic of SARS-CoV-2, four subtypes previously had been responsible for respiratory disease in the U.S. Those include 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1, which have typically been associated with mild cold-like symptoms.

Two other coronaviruses, the original SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, have caused more severe disease in humansopens in a new tab or window.

These single-stranded RNA viruses are known for their distinct surface spikes, which give them a crown-like appearance.

Enteroviruses

Most people infected with an enterovirus have asymptomatic infections or only mild, cold-like illness. Of the more than 100 non-polio enteroviruses, the most common ones are EV-D68, EV-A71, and coxsackie virus A6 (CV-A6), according to the CDCopens in a new tab or window.

EV-D68 more commonly causes respiratory illness, while EV-A71 and CV-A6 can cause hand, foot, and mouth disease. While EV-D68 is usually asymptomatic or causes only mild symptoms, it can, in rare cases, cause acute flaccid myelitis opens in a new tab or window(AFM).

Adenoviruses

These DNA viruses in the family Adenoviridae are frequently accompanied by small, single-stranded DNA parvoviruses known as adeno-associated viruses, that don't seem to cause any specific disease. In fact, most experimental gene therapiesopens in a new tab or window have switched from using adenoviruses to these adeno-associated viruses to mitigate some of the side effects.

Most adenovirus infections are asymptomatic, and when they do cause symptoms, these are mostly mild. They can also range widely in the type of disease they cause.

"Adenoviruses are interesting. Some are directed more at the respiratory tract, while some have more intestinal symptoms and others like to give us pink eye," Schaffner said. "That viral family is very diverse and often the major impact is quite strain-specific."

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/generalinfectiousdisease/113635

'ABIM Revokes Certification of Peter McCullough'

 The American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) revoked the board certification of Peter McCullough, MD, MPH, a cardiologist who promoted controversial views about COVID-19.

In a search of ABIM's certification lookup tool, McCullough's certifications in both internal medicine and cardiovascular disease are both listed as "Not Certified, Revokedopens in a new tab or window."

It's not clear exactly when McCullough's credentials were revoked, but as recently as August 2024, McCullough still retained his certifications, according to prior MedPage Today reportingopens in a new tab or window.

A spokesperson for ABIM said the organization "doesn't comment on individual physicians," adding that "anyone can confirm a physician's certification status on our Verification of Certificationopens in a new tab or window page."

ABIM had previously revoked the board certification of two other doctorsopens in a new tab or window who made controversial claims about COVID-19: Paul Marik, MD, and Pierre Kory, MD. Both previously had certifications in internal medicine and critical care medicine, and Kory additionally held a certification in pulmonary disease.

McCullough first announced in October 2022opens in a new tab or window that ABIM had moved to revoke his certifications in internal medicine and cardiology, but he said at the time that he would appeal the ABIM committee's recommendation.

Early in the pandemic, McCullough supported the use of hydroxychloroquineopens in a new tab or window in patients with mild disease even when mainstream medicine was recommending against it.

But he became more known for being outspoken against the COVID vaccines. He had claimedopens in a new tab or window that there is no scientific reason for healthy people under 50 and those who have recovered from COVID to get the vaccine, and has asserted that tens of thousands of Americans have died from the shots.

McCullough and his former employer, Baylor Scott & White Health in Texas, parted ways in February 2021. But not long after, the health system sued McCulloughopens in a new tab or window alleging he illegitimately affiliated himself with its facilities when promoting controversial views about COVID.

The lawsuit claimed that for months after McCullough's employment had ended, he continued to use his former professional titles -- such as "vice chief of internal medicine at Baylor University Medical Center" -- in media interviews where he shared his views on the pandemic.

The case was dismissedopens in a new tab or window in January 2023.

McCullough is currently listed as chief science officer of The Wellness Company, the owner of which was recently reportedopens in a new tab or window as also investing in an anti-vaccine dating site and launching a coffee brand for "anti-woke" consumers. The Wellness Company sells supplements, one of which is called "Ultimate Spike Detoxopens in a new tab or window." It costs $89.99 for 120 capsules.

McCullough holds active medical licenses in Texas and Michigan. The Texas license lists a DWI arrest from October 1984, for which McCullough completed the Dallas County DWI Education Project in June 1985.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/features/113624

US regulator was cautious on crypto but did not tell banks to choke off sector

 A U.S. bank regulator told banks to pause dabbling directly in crypto in 2022 and 2023, but did not order them to stop providing banking services to crypto companies contrary to industry complaints of widespread "debanking," according to documents released on Friday.


A judge ordered the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to provide versions of supervisory "pause letters" it sent to unidentified banks after History Associates Incorporated, a research firm hired by crypto exchange Coinbase, sued the agency to release them.

The FDIC first released the letters in December but was ordered by the judge to resubmit them with more "nuanced redactions." The new batch of 25 letters includes two additional letters sent to unidentified banks that were not included in the original FDIC submission.

The litigation is part of a campaign by Coinbase to expose what it and other crypto companies say has been a concerted effort on the part of U.S. bank supervisors to choke off crypto companies from the traditional financial system.

Coinbase's chief legal officer, Paul Grewel, said in a post on X Friday that the less redacted letters show a "coordinated effort to stop a wide variety of crypto activity" and called for further investigation by Congress.

In a bid to combat those claims, the FDIC also on Friday published a 2022 internal memo detailing how supervisors should assess queries from lenders looking to directly deal in crypto assets, versus offering banking services to crypto companies.

Together, the documents provide a rare glimpse into the confidential bank supervisory process. They suggest that while FDIC examiners have been cautious towards the crypto sector, which has been beset by scams, bankruptcies and volatility, they did not order banks to entirely cut off the crypto sector.

The documents are being released weeks before President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration is expected to outline a broad crypto policy overhaul. Trump is expected to issue an executive order directing bank regulators to go easier on the sector, potentially as early as his Jan. 20 inauguration.

Several of the FDIC letters show staff directed banks to either pause entering crypto initiatives or refrain from further expanding client crypto services. In others, the FDIC required banks to answer detailed questions before proceeding further with crypto ventures.

The internal memo, meanwhile, distinguishes between a bank engaging directly in crypto activities, like holding crypto assets in custody, and offering traditional banking services for crypto clients, like lending and providing deposit accounts. The first category requires stricter scrutiny. 

The memo echoes comments made in December by FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg, who told reporters the agency does not "debank" crypto firms in terms of access to bank accounts, but direct crypto engagement by banks is a "subject of supervisory attention."

"Crypto-related activities may pose significant safety and soundness and consumer protection risks, as well as financial stability concerns," the memo notes, adding such risks are still "evolving."


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-regulator-cautious-crypto-did-163427539.html

Surrozen upped to Buy from Neutral by Guggenheim

 Target $45

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SRZN&p=d