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Sunday, January 5, 2025

FDNY unions say congestion toll will hurt response times: ‘Difference between life and death’

 Two of New York City’s firefighter unions are slamming the newly implemented $9 congestion toll plan, saying Sunday that it will likely hurt response times — which “could mean a difference between life and death.”

FDNY firefighters came out against the scheme on Sunday, just as drivers began getting charged for entering Manhattan below 61st Street. The toll is $9 during peak hours — from 5 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays and 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekends — and $2.25 for off-peak hours.

New York’s Bravest warned the new tolls could delay emergency response time as firefighters will no longer use their cars to quickly get around the city, and instead be forced to try and navigate more congested streets in firetrucks.

Two of NYC’s firefighter unions have come out against the newly implemented congestion toll, warning it will impact response time.Christopher Sadowski

“Fire engines and fire trucks will be delayed because the FDNY will have to use those vehicles to move firefighters around the city because firefighters that will no longer bring their cars into the zone will have no other way to get to a different work location with their gear,” said Uniformed Firefighters Association President Andrew Ansbro.

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Increased traffic congestion north of 60th Street will likely also lead to slower response times, which “could mean the difference between life and death,” according to Ansbro.

“This is not just a logistical issue — it’s a public health crisis in the making,” he added.

Members of the Uniformed Fire Officers Association (UFOA) also slammed the economic impact congestion pricing will have on New Yorkers, with the change likely to cost residents millions annually.

“Congestion pricing will burden residents with millions in added costs annually. It’s an unfair tax that doesn’t account for the critical needs of emergency services,” UFOA President James Brosi said.

Congestion toll pricing went into effect Sunday at midnight.Christopher Sadowski
Increased traffic could be the difference “between life and death,” Uniformed Firefighters Association President Andrew Ansbro says.Michael Nagle
Both unions are urging city officials to consider exemptions to the plan for emergency services, warning the current structure puts New Yorkers’ lives at risk.

“Congestion pricing should not come at the expense of public safety ,” both leaders said in a joint statement. “We urge city and state officials to address these critical concerns before implementing a policy that puts every New Yorker at risk.” 

https://nypost.com/2025/01/05/us-news/fdny-firefighters-unions-say-congestion-toll-will-hurt-response-times/

Germany's New Morgenthau Plan

 by Victor Davis Hanson,

Less than a year before the end of World War II, then-U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau drew up a nightmarish plan to punish postwar Germany.

After the serial 1870-1871 Franco-Prussian War, World War I, and World War II — along with the failed Versailles peace treaty of 1919 — the Allies in World War II wanted to ensure there would never again be an aggressive Germany powerful enough to invade its neighbors.

When the so-called Morgenthau Plan was leaked to the press in September 1944, at first it was widely praised.

After all, it would supposedly render Germany incapable of ever starting another world war in Europe.

Morgenthau certainly envisioned a Carthaginian peace, designed to ensure a permanently deindustrialized, unarmed, and pastoral Germany.

Postwar Germany would have resembled something akin to the ancient, pre-civilized frontier that the first-century AD historian Tacitus wrote about in his Germania.

The plan would have ensured that within six months of Germany’s surrender, all of its industrial plants and equipment were to be dismantled.

The Ruhr, the renowned center of European industrial strength, was to be permanently neutered, starved of its energy, raw materials, and infrastructure.

After the war, the plan demanded virtual complete disarmament of Germany. Its once-feared armed forces were to be rendered nonexistent.

There were also promised massive reductions in Germany’s borders. Various countries, such as the Soviet Union, Poland, and France, were to be given large slices of the old Third Reich.

Future German security would hinge only on the power and goodwill of the victorious United States and its allies.

When the dying Nazi Party got wind of the plan, Hitler’s propaganda minister, Joseph Goebbels, had a field day. He screamed to Germans that they were all doomed to oblivion if they lost the war, even growing opponents of the Nazi Party.

Even many Americans were aghast at the plan.

Gen. George Marshall, the Army chief of staff, warned that its mere mention had galvanized German troops to fight to the end, increasing American casualties as they closed in on the German homeland.

Ex-President Herbert Hoover blasted the plan as inhumane. He feared mass starvation of the German people if they were reduced to a premodern, rural peasantry.

But once the victorious allies occupied a devastated Germany, witnessed its moonscape ruined by massive bombing and house-to-house fighting, and discovered that their “ally,” Russia’s Joseph Stalin, was ruthless and hellbent on turning all of Europe communist, the Truman administration backed off the plan.

There is a tragic footnote to the aborted horrors of the Morgenthau Plan. Currently, Germany is doing to itself almost everything Morgenthau once dreamed of.

Its green delusions have shut down far too many of its nuclear, coal, and gas electrical generation plants.

Erratic solar and wind “sustainable energy” means that power costs are four times higher than on average in the United States.

Once-dominant European giants Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes are now bleeding customers and profits. Their own government’s green and electric vehicle mandates ensure they will become globally uncompetitive.

The German economy actually shrank in 2023. And the diminished Ruhr can no longer save the German economy from its own utopian politicians.

The German military is all but disarmed and short thousands of recruits.

German industries do not produce enough ammunition, tanks, ships, and aircraft to equip even its diminished army, navy, and air force.

Just a few hundred miles from Germany in Ukraine, more than a million Ukrainians and Russians are dead, wounded, or missing — in the costliest European battle since the horrors of Stalingrad.

Yet the once postwar German dynamo nation now lacks the manpower, munitions, and money to aid Ukraine in any meaningful way against an ascendant Russian invader.

More than 1 million immigrants have entered the country illegally, the vast majority of them from the Middle East. Many of them are hostile to European values and culture, as recent terrorist killings have shown. One-fifth of the population was not born in Germany.

The shrinking German people are growing angry, divided, and depressed. Their 1.4 percent fertility rate is one of the lowest in the Western world.

A tragic irony now abounds.

After World War II, the Truman administration rejected the notion of a pastoral, deindustrialized, and insecure Germany as a cruel prescription for poverty, hunger, and depopulation.

But now the German people themselves voted for their own updated version of Morgenthau’s plan — as they willingly reduced factory hours, curtailed power and fuel supplies, and struggled with millions of illegal aliens and porous borders.

Germans accept that they have no military to speak of that could protect their insecure borders — without a United States-led NATO.

Eighty years ago, Germany’s former conquerors rejected wrecking the defeated nation as too harsh. But now Germany is willfully pastoralizing, disarming, deindustrializing — and destroying — itself.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/vdh-germanys-new-morgenthau-plan

What in the World is Going On

 This post will summarize what is happening across financial markets and economies--what is sometimes called the "macro" picture--and explain how that understanding can help our short-term trading. 

I've begun work with new portfolio management (PM) teams at hedge funds, and I have been impressed by the unique research undertaken by each team.  One thing that makes these teams distinctive is that they first seek to understand what in the world is going on and only then do they explore trades that might provide them with good reward relative to risk to exploit this understanding.  Because they are driven by intellectual curiosity and the desire to understand, they are not following every tick in the market and they are not going on tilt, trading on FOMO, and experiencing all the common problems we hear about.  When PM teams meet with someone like me, it's to expand their understanding, improve their teamwork, and translate conviction about what's happening in the world into portfolios of trades that best leverage their distinctive strengths.

In my upcoming book, Positive Trading Psychology, I explain how a knowledge of short-term trading can help active investors achieve better reward relative to risk for their trades.  I also explain how an understanding of macroeconomic fundamentals can help short-term traders identify unique areas of opportunity and align their trades with bigger picture trends.  It is when we blend the tactical identification of opportunity (our fast-thinking, pattern recognition skills) with the deeper, strategic thinking that provides us with an understanding of market trends and patterns that we achieve the positive mindset that accompanies a sense of mastery.  Optimal trading psychology comes from understanding, and understanding comes from preparation.  Notice how the relationship among preparation, mastery, and mindset occurs in every performance field, from sports to chess to professional dance.

OK, so what is going on in the world?  Here are a few observations from macro markets, with a shoutout to Barchart.com, which provides a wealth of data (found in the following links) regarding performance across asset classes and regions of the world:

1)  The US Dollar is outperforming other currencies:  Note the uptrend in DXY since early October.  During that same period, note the relative weakness of the Japanese Yen, the Canadian Dollar, and the Australian Dollar, and the relative strength of the US Dollar to the Chinese Yuan.

2)  The yield curve has been steepening:  Remember how, not so long ago, we were talking about inverted yield curves and forecasts of recession?  No longer.  Since September, long-term fixed income prices have fallen more than medium-term fixed income prices and both have fallen more than short-term fixed income prices.  That means that interest rates are rising as we go out on the curve.  Note that high-yield bonds have performed relatively well.  We don't seem to be anticipating defaults in the fixed income world.

3)  Many commodities have weakened:  The commodity index is down since early October, with notable weakness in metals and miningagribusiness, and the shares of raw materials companies.   

4)  US stocks have outperformed overseas averages: Note the relative underperformance of European shares since late September and, indeed, in the relative underperformance of non-US stocks in general.  Shares in China have held up better than shares in AustraliaSouth Korea, and Brazil

5)  Performance among US stock sectors has been very mixed:  We've seen relative strength in NASDAQ shares and Consumer Discretionary stocks.  Growth shares have outperformed value stocks lately and small cap shares have recently underperformed the overall market.  Note the particular weakness in interest-rate sensitive sectors, such as real estate and utilities, as well as raw materials and healthcare.  We hit a peak in stocks making fresh new annual highs on November 6th and, since December 10th, the number of stocks making fresh one month lows have exceeded the number of monthly highs every single day and the number of shares registering three month lows have exceeded the number of three month highs almost every day.  Only 6.45% of real estate stocks are trading above their 20-day moving averages as of this past Friday and only 7.14% of raw materials shares.  By comparison, despite the recent correction, over 30% of technology stocks are above their 20-day averages.  

Conclusion:  The bottom line is that performance in financial markets has become narrower and narrower.  Rising long-term rates in the US, falling commodities, and weak overseas equity markets speak to the potential impacts of economic policies that seek to place America first.  The prospect of broader trade wars and diminished trade due to possible retaliatory tariffs weigh on many segments of equity markets.  Trading success has hinged on identifying the relative winners and losers in the emerging financial landscape.  Short-term traders should be alert to the patterns of relative strength and weakness.  

So far, in the big picture, strength is relatively concentrated in the US (US dollar; US stocks) and, within the US, strength is relatively concentrated in growth segments of the market.  A Goldman Sachs report observes that concentration of value among US stocks is at historic highs.  They observe that we have only seen similar levels of concentration prior to the Great Depression, at the peak of the dot-com bubble, and during the early 1970s.  Right now, themes of relative strength and weakness dominate the macro investing landscape.  It will be important to watch the segments of greatest strength to see if this period also turns out to be a bubble that bursts, perhaps as the  stagflationary result of tariff wars fueling inflation and restraining growth.

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https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/01/what-in-world-is-going-on.html

EU Could Establish Asylum 'Return Hubs' In Third Countries By March, Swedish PM Says

 by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The European Union may establish asylum return centers outside its borders as soon as March, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson revealed on Thursday during a meeting with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer in Vienna.

The proposal, expected from the EU’s new migration commissioner, aims to stem the flow of irregular migrants who remain within the bloc despite having their asylum applications rejected.

Kristersson is promoting the idea of “return hubs,” which would house individuals whose asylum applications have been denied, while they await deportation. He believes the centers will deter people with slim chances of success from seeking asylum in the EU.

“It is a way of saying we do not accept that there is no difference between a refusal and a yes,” Kristersson told the TT news agency.

“It will also reduce the driving forces if you know you have very little chance.”

According to EU data, only around 20 percent of migrants who are denied asylum actually leave EU territory. Kristersson says this undermines the system and creates “completely different concerns” as many end up going underground, working in the gig economy with others resorting to a life of crime.

Kristersson cited Italy’s agreement with Albania as a model of how third-country processing could work. Under that pact, men from countries deemed “safe” by the Italian government have been transferred to Albania to await the outcome of their asylum applications, with certain exceptions for vulnerable individuals.

However, Italian courts have repeatedly blocked the measure, setting Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s administration on a collision course with what Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has called “left-wing activist judges.

The Italian judiciary cited EU law stipulating that entire countries must be deemed safe, not just parts of them. This legal snag has effectively halted transfers to Albania pending a judgment from the European Court of Justice.

At a press conference with Nehammer, Kristersson noted that Sweden is set to record its lowest number of asylum seekers since 1996. He attributed this drop partly to changing migration routes within Europe, as well as policy shifts.

“After an extensive restructuring of our policy, we have reduced the numbers,” Kristersson said.

During the migrant crisis of 2015, more than 162,000 refugees sought asylum in Sweden. By 2024, that figure is projected to hover around 10,000. Still, Kristersson acknowledged that the initial decline largely began in 2016, when the EU tightened its external borders, and that many of his government’s new laws have yet to take effect.

Several groups including Amnesty International have raised concerns that the proposed return hubs are incompatible with both EU and international law, with Kristersson conceding the plan presents “difficult questions” but stressing that doing nothing about the issue is not an option.


https://www.zerohedge.com/political/eu-could-establish-asylum-return-hubs-third-countries-march-swedish-pm-says

'Bourbon Street Terrorist's Bombs Made With Extremely Rare Explosive, Officials Say'

 The terrorist who killed 14 people and hurt 35 more in New Orleans in the early hours of New Year's Day prepositioned bombs that used an extraordinarily rare explosive compound, senior law enforcement officials have told NBC News. The two devices didn't detonate, but authorities are scrambling to learn how Shamsud-Din Jabbar was able to incorporate a type of explosive that has never before been used in a terror attack in America or Europe.   

At around 3 am on Wednesday, Texas-born Houston resident Shamsud-Din Jabbar used a pickup truck to plow a path of carnage through a crowd of New Year's partiers on Bourbon Street, before police killed him in a shootout. The 42-year-old US Army veteran's plan had another dimension of death that he failed to execute: The FBI and ATF say he'd built two bombs that were rigged to be detonated with a transmitter that was found in his rented Ford F-150 truck.

The improvised explosive devices were placed in recreational coolers that Jabbar placed on Bourbon Street; that action was recorded on security cameras. Neither bomb exploded, and investigators are still trying to determine whether that fortunate fact springs from a design flaw, a malfunction or Jabbar's failing to attempt to trigger the devices. 

The FBI released this photo of a cooler said to contain an improvised explosive device made by Bourbon Street terrorist Shamsud-Din Jabbar

The officials who told NBC News about the rare explosive apparently stopped short of naming it, but emphasized that it was the first time it had been used in the United States, and had likewise never been used by terrorists anywhere in Europe. Investigators are now trying to determine how Jabbar learned about the extraordinary compound and how he was able to manufacture it. 

Given the particulars of his military service, it's unlikely Jabbar's novel bomb-making knowledge was gained during his time in uniform. “Jabbar was in the regular Army as a Human Resource Specialist (42A) and Information Technology (IT) Specialist (25B) from March 2007 until January 2015 and then in the Army Reserve as an IT Specialist (25B) from January 2015 until July 2020,” a Pentagon official told Task & Purpose. "He deployed to Afghanistan from February 2009 to January 2010. He held the rank of Staff Sergeant at the end of service.”

No Rambo: Jabbar's Army time was spent in human resources and information technology (Facebook/Reuters)

The pickup truck that Jabbar used to murder 14 people and wound dozens more was adorned with an ISIS flag. Law enforcement officials say that he posted videos to Facebook hours before his attack. Seemingly created for the benefit of his family, the videos showed him pledging allegiance to the Salafist terror group as he was driving. Remarkably, he said he'd considered attacking his family and friends, but rejected the idea out of concern that ensuing news coverage would fail to properly focus on the "war between the believers and the disbelievers."  After he was killed, police found he'd been armed with an AR-15 and a handgun

Before launching his attack on innocent revelers, Jabbar set his short-term rental house ablaze, but "the fire burned to a point that it extinguished itself prior to spreading to other rooms," federal investigators say. The arson stopped short despite Jabbar having apparently positioned accelerants throughout the house. The house on Mandeville Street in New Orleans held bomb-making materials and what police believe is a homemade rifle silencer.  Similar bomb materials were found at Jabbar's house on Crescent Peak Drive in Houston, in a predominantly Muslim neighborhood on the city's north side. 

Jabbar's Houston house after federal investigators raided it soon after his rampage in New Orleans (Lucio Vasquez/Houston Public Media)

In its Friday statement, the FBI said it had brought an additional 200 personnel to New Orleans to boost the investigation, noting the bureau had received nearly 1,000 tips and was evaluating "terabytes worth of video and other data collected by street cameras monitored by the New Orleans Real Time Crime Center." 

While the FBI earlier suspected that Jabbar had accomplices, the bureau now says otherwise. "We do not assess at this point that anyone else is involved in this attack other than Shamsud-Din Jabbar," said Christopher Raia, deputy assistant director of the FBI's counterintelligence division, on Thursday. 

Jabbar's younger brother, 24-year-old Abdur Jabbar, told the New York Times that his older brother's mass murder wasn't an exemplification of Islam. “What he did does not represent Islam. This is more some type of radicalization, not religion.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bourbon-street-terrorists-bombs-made-extremely-rare-explosive-officials-say