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Friday, March 14, 2025

Ensitrelvir Shows Promise for COVID-19 Prevention Following Exposure

 Oral ensitrelvir was significantly more effective than placebo for preventing COVID-19 infection in uninfected at-risk adults who had exposure to those infected, based on data from a phase 3 trial presented at the 2025 Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections. 

Ensitrelvir, an oral SARS-CoV-2 3CL protease inhibitor, is approved in Japan for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19, wrote Akimasa Fukushi, MD, of Shionogi & Co., Ltd, the drug’s Japanese manufacturer, in the study abstract. 

The researchers randomized adults who were household contacts of confirmed COVID-19 patients but not yet infected themselves. The modified intent-to-treat population was confirmed negative for COVID-19 at baseline. Participants received ensitrelvir at doses of 375 mg on day 1 and 125 mg on days 2-5 or a placebo (1030 and 1011 individuals, respectively) within 72 hours of symptom onset in their household index patient. The mean age of the study population was 42.4 years, and 37% had at least one high-risk factor for severe COVID-19. 

The primary endpoint was the percentage of household contacts who developed COVID-19 at day 10, at which time 2.9% of the ensitrelvir group had developed COVID-19, compared to 9.0% of the placebo group, a 67% reduction in risk. 

“In addition to vaccination, post-exposure prophylaxis with timely use of an oral antiviral would be a valuable way to help prevent COVID-19 illness in people who have been exposed, especially people at high risk for severe disease,” said Frederick Hayden, MD, in a press release from the company. Hayden, professor emeritus of clinical virology and professor emeritus of medicine at the University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, presented the study, known as SCORPIO-PEP (Stopping COVID-19 pRogression with early Protease InhibitOr treatment – Post-Exposure Prophylaxis), at the meeting. 

In a secondary analysis that included all household contacts regardless of confirmed uninfected status and in household contacts who had tested positive, the risk ratios for COVID infection in ensitrelvir groups were 0.43 and 0.75, respectively. 

The development of any treatment-emergent or serious treatment-emergent adverse events were similar between the ensitrelvir and placebo groups (15.1% vs 15.5% and 0.2% vs 0.2%, respectively). The most common treatment-emergent adverse events across both groups were headachediarrhea, and influenza. No COVID-19-related fatalities or hospitalizations were reported during the study.

Additional data from a companion study known as SCORPIO-HR was recently published in Clinical Infectious Diseases. In that study, ensitrelvir failed to meet its primary endpoint of sustained symptom resolution (≥ 2 days) when given as an oral treatment for individuals already infected with COVID-19 within 3 days of symptom onset. 

However, no serious treatment-related adverse events were reported, and the drug showed antiviral activity, according to the study authors.

The lack of available medications in the United States for COVID post-exposure prophylaxis leaves household members in close contact with someone who is infected vulnerable to developing COVID themselves, said Shirin A. Mazumder, MD, an infectious diseases specialist in Memphis, Tenn, in an interview. 

“Access to a medication such as ensitrelvir may have a significant impact on preventing infections which in turn can also protect against some of the long term and more serious complications associated with COVID,” she said.

Mazumder was enthusiastic and “pleasantly surprised” by the significant study findings of a 67% risk reduction in infections among household contacts. “Given that there are no currently available options for COVID post-exposure prophylaxis, the findings of this study are very encouraging and has the potential to shift how we treat household members exposed to COVID,” she said.

Ensitrelvir’s Pros and Cons

An oral mediation option is convenient compared to other routes of administration, such as injections, said Mazumder. In addition, preventing COVID infections in the first place prevents days missed at school or work, complications such as long COVID, and more severe complications necessitating hospitalizations and even death, she said. “Postexposure prophylaxis along with vaccinations can significantly change the prevention landscape for COVID,” she added. 

If approved, some potential barriers to the use of ensitrelvir in clinical practice include cost and access, Mazumder told Medscape. “A 5-day course of Paxlovid [nirmatrelvir and ritonavir] for COVID treatment is approximately $1660, but it is covered by many insurance plans, which helps with patient access,” she said. “It will be interesting to see how ensitrelvir will be priced in this country if approved, and whether insurance will cover the cost,” she noted. The time delay before the new medication would be widely available through pharmacies could be another barrier affecting access, she added. 

Next Directions 

Ensitrelvir is a protease inhibitor that can have some significant drug interactions, and it would be helpful to know whether any participants were excluded from the study because of the potential for drug interactions, said Mazumder. “In addition, it would be useful to know if the severity of infection was reduced in those that developed COVID in the ensitrelvir group,” she said. 

Additional areas of research include evaluating ensitrelvir in those younger than 12 years as this may have an impact on the transmission of COVID in school settings, Mazumder noted. Evaluation of ensitrelvir’s efficacy in the immunocompromised and elderly populations is needed, given that these groups are at higher risk of COVID-related complications, and the impact of different circulating variants of the virus on ensitrelvir’s efficacy will need evaluation, she said. 

The study was funded by ensitrelvir manufacturer Shionogi. 

Mazumder had no financial conflicts to disclose.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/ensitrelvir-shows-promise-covid-19-prevention-following-2025a100068j

'AI ‘Hallucinations’ Are Changing Medicine'

 Artificial intelligence (AI) has the ability to generate, or rather “hallucinate,” alternative realities. This phenomenon, known as AI hallucinations, occurs when large language models — such as generative AI chatbots — perceive patterns or objects that are non-existent or imperceptible to human observers, producing meaningless or entirely inaccurate results, as described by IBM.

While AI generally provides accurate responses, there are instances where its algorithms generate outputs that are not based on training data, are misinterpreted by the model’s transformer, or fail to follow any identifiable pattern. In other words, the AI “hallucinates” a response.

How Often Do They Occur?

AI hallucinations can be compared with how humans perceive shapes in clouds or faces on the moon. These misinterpretations arise due to factors such as overfitting, bias, inaccuracies in the training data, or the complexity of the model.

Recent studies indicate that chatbots hallucinate between 3% and 27% of the time in simple tasks like summarizing news, with variation depending on the model and developer. Despite ongoing efforts by companies such as OpenAI and Google to reduce these errors, AI systems continue to generate unexpected and sometimes nonsensical results.

Hallucinations in Healthcare

To examine the implications of AI hallucinations in the medical field, a study by BHM Healthcare Solutions, a US-based company that provides behavioural health and medical review services, analysed recent data on AI-related errors in healthcare. The study explored how these hallucinations emerge, their consequences, and strategies to mitigate associated risks.

While several incidents demonstrate the potential impact of AI-induced hallucinations in healthcare, these cases remain isolated. The study concludes that learning from these occurrences can help implement safeguards to prevent similar mistakes in the future.

Some reported incidents include an AI system incorrectly flagging benign nodules as malignant in 12% of cases, leading to unnecessary surgical interventions. Another study identified instances where language-based AI models fabricated entire patient summaries, including non-existent symptoms and treatments. Similarly, an AI-powered drug interaction checker mistakenly identified false interactions, causing clinicians to avoid effective drug combinations unnecessarily.

Health Risks

The BHM study highlights that AI hallucinations in healthcare can lead to misdiagnoses and inappropriate treatments, directly compromising patient safety. Repeated errors may also erode trust in AI tools among healthcare professionals, reducing their willingness to adopt AI-driven decision support. Furthermore, mistakes attributed to AI hallucinations could result in malpractice lawsuits or increased regulatory scrutiny.

However, by acknowledging that AI hallucinations exist and identifying their root causes, healthcare organisations can implement proactive measures to minimise risks. Establishing robust training protocols, ensuring human oversight, and promoting transparency in AI-generated outputs can help mitigate these challenges and foster confidence in AI-driven healthcare solutions.

Are AI Hallucinations Beneficial?

Despite their dangers, AI hallucinations may have unexpected benefits. Some researchers have argued that AI’s ability to generate surprising or unconventional ideas can drive creativity.

Anand Bhushan, a senior IT architect and member of IBM’s Open Innovation Community, suggests that in a business or research setting, AI hallucinations can serve as a powerful tool for idea generation. AI’s ability to produce unconventional or unexpected outputs can inspire new thought processes, encouraging creativity and innovation.

Bhushan suggests that when AI generates novel or unconventional information, it can prompt users to explore topics more deeply, fostering critical thinking and deeper understanding.

In healthcare, AI hallucinations can contribute to creating dynamic and engaging user experiences in virtual environments and digital platforms. For example, chatbots and digital assistants can generate unique responses, personalising interactions and ultimately improving patient satisfaction, explained Bhushan.

A Tool for Discovery

The New York Times explored this issue in a report, noting that in the scientific world, AI hallucinations are proving to be extraordinarily useful. The article explains how incorrect or misleading results from AI models have helped researchers track cancer, design drugs, invent medical devices, and uncover meteorological phenomena by “dreaming up” new concepts to investigate.

In the report, Amy McGovern, a computer science and meteorology professor and the director of the US National Science Foundation AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography, stated: “The public thinks it’s all bad, but in reality, it provides scientists with new ideas. It gives them the opportunity to explore ideas they might not otherwise have considered.”

The New York Times concluded that AI-generated unrealities are helping advance scientific research, from cancer tracking to drug development, designing medical devices, and studying weather patterns, and could contribute to future Nobel Prize-winning discoveries in medicine

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/ai-hallucinations-are-changing-medicine-should-we-worry-2025a1000647

High Price of GLP-1 Agents Tip Cost-Benefit Scale Unfavorably

 

  • Tirzepatide and semaglutide would have to drop their current net prices by 30.5% and 81.9%, respectively, to be cost-effective.
  • Over a lifetime of use, tirzepatide could avert 45,609 obesity cases, 20,854 new diabetes cases, and 10,655 cardiovascular disease cases per 100,000 eligible individuals.
  • Semaglutide could avert 32,087 obesity cases, 19,211 diabetes cases, and 8,263 cardiovascular diseases cases per 100,000 eligible individuals.

Despite substantial health benefits, two GLP-1 receptor agonists weren't cost-effective at their current prices, according to an economic evaluation that compared four anti-obesity medications.

Net prices of tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) and semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy) would have to drop by 30.5% and 81.9%, respectively, to reach the $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold, reported researchers led by Jennifer Hwang, DO, of the University of Chicago, in JAMA Health Forumopens in a new tab or window.

Even so, these GLP-1 agents have the potential to avert tens of thousands of cases of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease over a lifetime of use:

  • Obesity: 45,609 with tirzepatide and 32,087 with semaglutide per 100,000 individuals
  • Incident diabetes: 20,854 and 19,211, respectively
  • Cardiovascular disease: 10,655 and 8,263

These "striking" findings underscore a "significant affordability challenge despite the clear clinical benefits," Hwang told MedPage Today. "Obesity pharmacotherapy ... can offer significant health benefits, but high costs limit access for many patients."

"Prior studies have shown mixed results due to variations in assumptions and cost estimates," she said. "By incorporating a broader range of health outcomes and the latest price data, we provide a more updated and nuanced picture of the trade-off between clinical benefits and economic feasibility."

Compared with lifestyle modification alone, all four medications assessed in the study -- including phentermine-topiramate (Qsymia) and naltrexone-bupropion (Contrave) -- increased life expectancy and QALYs gained. Tirzepatide generated the most life-years gained per 100,000 eligible population, at 48,649, followed by semaglutide (35,634), phentermine-topiramate (20,153), and naltrexone-bupropion (11,406).

Tirzepatide and semaglutide were associated with larger QALY gains (incremental gains of 0.35 and 0.25 over lifestyle modification alone), greater long-term healthcare cost savings, and less productivity loss owing to improved health outcomes, "but the high costs of tirzepatide and semaglutide offset these savings," the researchers noted.

"Compared with lifestyle modification alone, tirzepatide and lifestyle modification had the lowest mean per-person background healthcare expenditures at $154,028, followed by semaglutide and lifestyle modification at $160,974," they pointed out. "However, due to their high treatment costs, the [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio] was $197,023/QALY gained for tirzepatide and lifestyle modification and was $467,676/QALY gained for semaglutide and lifestyle modification."

Hwang said physicians must advocate for policies that improve affordability, whether through insurance coverage expansions, price negotiations, or alternative prescribing strategies, such as lower-dose maintenance regimens after initial weight loss. "Understanding the cost-effectiveness of these treatments can help us make more informed, patient-centered prescribing/treatment decisions," she said.

"Obesity is a chronic disease that requires long-term management, and medication access should not be dictated solely by financial barriers," Hwang added. "As new policies like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Treat and Reduce Obesity Act evolve, it is crucial for healthcare providers to stay engaged in discussions on equitable access to these life-changing treatments."

Hwang's group conducted their lifetime cost-effectiveness analysis in 2024 using the validated Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation model for U.S. adults. They included data from the 2017-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of 4,823 individuals (representing 126 million eligible U.S. adults) ages 20 to 79 who would meet the following obesity clinical trial inclusion criteria: body mass index (BMI) of ≥30 or a BMI of 27-29.9 with at least one weight-related comorbidity.

Average age was 48 years, 51% were female, average baseline BMI was 34.7, and 85% had at least one weight-related comorbidity.

The researchers ran simulations where eligible adults received one of four anti-obesity medications -- tirzepatide, semaglutide, phentermine-topiramate, or naltrexone-bupropion -- paired with lifestyle modification or lifestyle modification alone. These simulations took into account projected long-term cardiometabolic outcomes, assumed weight loss in the first 2 years, and first year discontinuation due to adverse events.

SSR Health data were used to estimate net prices, which reflected rebates and discounts across Medicaid, the 340B drug pricing program, Medicare Part D, and commercial insurers. QALY estimates were computed using the U.S. health-related quality-of-life prediction model, which incorporated variables such as age, sex, race/ethnicity, and health conditions.

The current model did not include other weight-related comorbidities, such as osteoarthritis and obstructive sleep apnea, the latter of which tirzepatide was approved foropens in a new tab or window in December.

The GLP-1 agent cost-benefit ratio could change in the future as additional health benefits are discovered and prices change. "Accounting for the long-term health benefits from reducing these comorbidities with anti-obesity medications might improve their cost-effectiveness," Hwang's group concluded.

Disclosures

The study was supported by grants and resources from the Health Resources and Services Administration, the National Institutes of Health, and the University of Chicago Research Computing Center and Center for Research Informatics.

Hwang reported no disclosures. One co-author reported grants from Arnold Ventures.

Primary Source

JAMA Health Forum

Source Reference: opens in a new tab or windowHwang JH, et al "Lifetime health effects and cost-effectiveness of tirzepatide and semaglutide in US adults" JAMA Health Forum 2025; DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2024.5586.


https://www.medpagetoday.com/primarycare/obesity/114656

US Justice Dept probes Columbia war protests for terrorism violations, official says

 The U.S. Justice Department is examining whether student protests at Columbia University over the Gaza war violated federal terrorism laws, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said on Friday.

Lutnick rips Atlanta Fed GDPNow contraction prediction

 U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick was apparently shocked on Friday, after learning that a recent estimate from the Federal Reserve shows the U.S. economy shrinking in Q1.

"Wait, wait, wait, say that again. What? A what?" Lutnick interrupted FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo after she read the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimate that gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to contract in the first quarter.

"A contraction?" he continued. "Okay… right here, right now, that is ridiculous."

Lutnick noted he has "absolutely not" spoken to Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic about the matter.

Howard Lutnick reacts to Atlanta Fed report

U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was shocked that the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta expects a contraction of Q1 GDP. (FOXBusiness)

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates a contraction of 2.4% for the first quarter, a slight improvement from its initial estimate of -2.8% on March 3. However, its website notes that the tracker is not an "official forecast" but a "running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter."

"We own the economy in the fourth quarter," Lutnick clarified. "We cut regulation, we get shovels in the ground of this $2 trillion of a commitment to build factories, to build production back to America. You've got everybody coming back to America to build. That starts really strong in the third quarter."

"First and second quarter are sort of a little bit [of] our optimism – egg prices down, interest rates down, energy prices down," the secretary expanded. "But it is the mess that we were left with."

He further pressed Bartiromo: "You feel it, Maria. Do you feel a deep, deep pain in the first quarter? I've watched your show all along. I don't remember you saying, 'Oh my God!' No, come on."

The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advanced estimate for first quarter GDP is planned for April 30. 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/howard-lutnick-rips-atlanta-fed-gdpnow-contraction-prediction

Hochul and Trump have ‘productive conversation,’ talk congestion pricing and Penn Station

 President Trump and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul held a “productive” meeting on Friday in the Oval Office, where they discussed congestion pricing and the redevelopment of Penn Station, a spokesperson for the governor said.

The high-stakes face-to-face came amid growing tensions between Trump and Hochul in recent weeks, especially after the feds moved to kill congestion pricing, and sued the Empire State over its sanctuary city policies for undocumented immigrants.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul arriving to convene a Youth Mental Health Roundtable and making a Distraction-Free Schools Announcement at the state Capitol, Albany.
Hochul has tried to cast herself as the leader of Trump resistance in recent weeks.Zuma / SplashNews.com

Hochul had even cast herself as leader of the anti-Trump “resistance” as recently as last week — though her harsh words faded away after her latest sit-down with the president.

A spokesperson for Hochul said the pair discussed a broad range of topics, including Penn Station, congestion pricing, tariffs and energy policy.

A map of a pipeline
The constitution pipeline would carry natural gas across New York state.New York Post
“While no formal agreements or decisions were reached, it was a productive conversation and we look forward to continuing the dialogue in the coming weeks,” the spokesperson said.

The statement from Hochul’s camp didn’t provide any more details on the talks. But last time Trump and Hochul met, the governor provided him with “a booklet on the early success of congestion pricing.

The MTA faces a March 21 deadline from the Federal Highway Administration to stop collecting the $9 toll on drivers entering Manhattan below 60th Street.

Hochul and MTA officials, however, are fighting the feds in court and have vowed to keep collecting the tolls.

Trump, before the Oval Office meeting, said he wanted to revive the Constitution pipeline, a project killed by New York regulators in 2016 over concerns it could impact clean water supplies.

https://nypost.com/2025/03/14/us-news/hochul-and-trump-have-productive-conversation-talk-congestion-pricing-and-penn-station-during-high-stakes-white-house-meeting/