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Thursday, March 20, 2025

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem On What Tariff Uncertainty Means For Monetary Policy

 The Bank of Canada on Thursday said the uncertainty over the effect of U.S. tariffs meant it had to change the way it conducted monetary policy to become less-forward looking than normal.

In a speech, Governor Tiff Macklem said the bank would be focusing less on policy for a specific outlook and more on policy that worked for different outcomes.

Macklem said if the bank guessed where the economy was going and made a mistake, its actions could be ineffective or make matters worse.

"So we need to set policy that minimizes the risk. That means being less forward-looking than normal until the situation is clearer," he told a business audience in Calgary, the heart of the oil-rich province of Alberta.

"And it may mean acting quickly when things crystallize. We need to be flexible and adaptable," he continued, without giving specific details.

Macklem reiterated that there could be no doubt about the bank's commitment to low inflation, saying it had to ensure higher prices from tariffs did not spread.

The BoC says the constant threat of tariffs and the resulting unpredictability are hurting business investments and consumer sentiment as the United States, by far Canada's biggest trading partner, flips flops on trade policy.

"When we have this high degree of uncertainty around the base case, we give more consideration to the risks," Macklem said. The BoC will announce its next monetary policy decision on April 16 which will be accompanied by a new set of projections.

The unpredictability makes it unclear how much tariffs will dent demand and how much they will be passed on to consumer prices, Macklem said.

The more inflationary the impact, the more focus monetary policy has to put on anchoring inflation expectations, which risk drifting up when inflation rises more and more quickly.

The BoC aims to keep inflation at 2%, the mid-point of its 1-3% target range.

Macklem said sectors such as energy and agriculture were highly exposed to the prospect of tariffs.

To try to keep inflation anchored, the BoC will closely track the pass-through of consumer prices, improve its analysis and enhance its communications, he said.

Macklem said inflation, which the bank managed to quell and bring it down to its target, was likely to rise.

"The Canadian economy managed a soft landing. Unfortunately, we're not going to stay on the tarmac for long. We now face a new economic crisis," he said.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-canada-change-policy-less-165600201.html

Barring Istanbul mayor from Turkish presidential bid would only boost opposition, party leader says

Turkey's main opposition leader said on Thursday any move to legally bar Istanbul's detained mayor from running for president would only strengthen support for their party, and that any candidate would beat President Tayyip Erdogan in elections.

In an interview with Reuters a day after Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan's chief political rival, was detained and charged, Ozgur Ozel, chairman of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), said Erdogan feared any future vote.

Erdogan wants to appoint a trustee to replace Imamoglu, also from the CHP, and sever the opposition's ties with Turkey's largest city, Ozel said, in his first interview with foreign media since the mayor's detention.

But the opposition would stage the "strongest democratic reaction" to any such move, Ozel said, speaking at the Istanbul Municipality headquarters building where he said he would remain until the mayor is released.

Imamoglu, seen as the CHP's best hope to unseat Erdogan after 22 years running Turkey, was taken in on Wednesday facing charges of graft and aiding a terrorist group, a move that the opposition condemned as a "coup attempt" and that sparked nationwide demonstrations.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/barring-istanbul-mayor-presidential-bid-155110974.html

GM, Hyundai in talks to share pickups and electric vans in North America, sources say

 Hyundai Motor and General Motors are close to finalizing a deal for Hyundai to share two electric commercial van models with the U.S. auto giant, according to a source familiar with the talks and Hyundai documents reviewed by Reuters.

In return, GM might provide Hyundai with pickup trucks to sell under its own brand in North America, the source said.

Such arrangements could kick off a broader partnership as the companies, two of the world's largest automakers, hold wide-ranging discussions, the source said. The documents reviewed by Reuters show Hyundai is considering deals with GM that include joint purchasing or development involving computing chips, next-generation batteries and battery materials.

Like many global automakers, GM and Hyundai are facing rising competition from Chinese EV makers and the threat of a global trade war, prompting them to look to share products to slash spending.

Hyundai would produce vans to be sold under both its own and GM brands, initially importing them from South Korea, according to the documents and the person familiar with the talks. But Hyundai is considering manufacturing the vans in North America by 2028. The person said Hyundai is exploring building a new plant, adding production to an existing facility or contracting out the manufacturing

The talks on pickups focus on GM sharing its midsized trucks, branded as the Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon in the United States, one of the sources said. Hyundai also wants to sell a version of GM's popular full-sized pickups, the source said, but GM hasn't put that option on the table.

Any pickup-sharing deal likely will take longer to finalize than the commercial van arrangement, the person said.

The automakers are also discussing the possibility of Hyundai providing GM with compact SUVs it could add to its product line-up in Brazil, the source said.

Hyundai said in January that it is in talks to supply electric commercial vehicles to GM as part of a preliminary agreement to explore how the automakers could cooperate on vehicles, supply chains and clean-energy technologies to cut costs and speed development.

Details of the partnership talks, including a potential pickup sharing deal, are reported here for the first time.

General Motors declined to comment on specifics of the negotiations but said in a statement: "Both companies continue to explore potential areas of collaboration."

Hyundai said in a statement that nothing has been finalized in ongoing talks but that the automakers are exploring deals "across key strategic areas."

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-gm-hyundai-talks-share-173339879.html

US attorney general says alleged arsonists targeting Tesla face charges

 U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi on Thursday said three people have been charged related to arson incidents at Tesla car dealerships and charging stations. Without specifying the charges, the Justice Department said the individuals each face between five and 20 years in prison.

"Let this be a warning: if you join this wave of domestic terrorism against Tesla properties, the Department of Justice will put you behind bars," Bondi said. 

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TESLA-INC-6344549/news/US-attorney-general-says-alleged-arsonists-targeting-Tesla-face-charges-49391121/

Respiratory Distress Outcomes Better With Intravenous vs Inhaled Sedative

 

  • Inhaled sevoflurane significantly reduced ventilator-free days and 90-day survival versus IV propofol in moderate to severe ARDS.
  • Inhaled volatile sedatives grew in popularity for prolonged use in mechanically ventilated patients during the COVID pandemic.
  • Sevoflurane was used for up to 7 days in the trial, much longer than the typically few hours of use in surgery.

For patients with moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prolonged sedation with the inhaled volatile agent sevoflurane resulted in worse outcomes than intravenous propofol, the randomized SESAR trial showed.

Sevoflurane reduced ventilator-free days through day 28 by a median of 2.1 compared with propofol (standardized HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.50-0.97), reported researchers led by Matthieu Jabaudon, MD, PhD, of CHU Clermont-Ferrand in France, in JAMAopens in a new tab or window.

The inhaled sedative also reduced 90-day survival by a relative 31%, with a rate of 47.1% versus 55.7% on propofol (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.05-1.62) in the findings that were simultaneously presented at the International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine in Brussels.

Inhaled anesthetic use was popularized during the COVID-19 sedative shortages, and interest persisted due to an association with reduced sedative and analgesic needs, the researchers noted.

However, the trial's findings "challenge proposed oxygenation benefits in ARDS, suggested by smaller and preclinical studies" and are in line with subsequent negative clinical studies in patients with hypoxemic acute respiratory failure, Jabaudon's group said.

One potential reason for the failure was the duration of exposure in the trial compared with the typical few hours of use as a general anesthetic, noted Balasubramanian Venkatesh, MD, of the George Institute for Global Health in New South Wales, Australia, and colleagues in an opinion pieceopens in a new tab or window accompanying the paper in JAMA.

"Sevoflurane is associated with cardiovascular depressant effects, nephrotoxicity, and formation of degradation products with carbon dioxide absorbent systems," they wrote. "Whether the longer duration of exposure in the SESAR trial (7 days) accentuated these effects and was a critical factor in influencing outcomes is unknown."

While an "elegant, pragmatic trial testing a challenging, innovative intervention in the sickest patients," the group concluded, "[t]hese findings do not support the routine use of sevoflurane for sedation in critically ill patients with moderate to severe ARDS."

The SESAR trial included 687 patients at 37 French intensive care units (ICUs) who had moderate to severe ARDS (defined by a ratio of the partial pressure of arterial oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen of <150 mm Hg with a positive end-expiratory pressure of ≥8 cm H2O). The patients were randomized to sedation with sevoflurane or propofol for up to 7 days (median 5 and 6 days, respectively).

Sedation in both groups was titrated to a clinical sedation score, and more of the sevoflurane-treated patients received additional sedation (148 vs 64 patients). Clinicians decided on sedation choices after day 7 and on use of respiratory rescue therapies and weaning from mechanical ventilation. The clinical team wasn't blinded to intervention group, although the outcome assessors were.

All patients received low-tidal-volume ventilation with high positive end-expiratory pressure starting within 2 hours of randomization and continuing for up to 7 days.

Among the secondary outcomes, sevoflurane had higher 7-day mortality (19.4% vs 13.5%; relative risk 1.44, 95% CI 1.02-2.03) and fewer ICU-free days through day 28 (median difference -2.5, 95% CI -3.7 to -1.4) compared with propofol.

Venkatesh's group pointed out that the difference in mortality rates at day 90 between sevoflurane and propofol was most pronounced in the non-COVID-19 ARDS subgroup (51.6% vs 34.6%), albeit without a statistically significant interaction. COVID-19 pneumonia was the predominant cause of ARDS in the study population.

In terms of safety, there was more acute kidney injury and five instances of nephrogenic diabetes insipidus in the sevoflurane group. "The adverse kidney effects could be due to elevated plasma fluoride (a by-product of sevoflurane metabolism) although the fluoride concentrations were not verified," Venkatesh and colleagues noted. "There were also two instances of malignant hyperthermia, a known but normally extremely rare adverse effect of inhaled anesthetics during surgery."

Limitations of the trial included lack of double-blinding, apparent sedation interruption in only a small proportion of patients in both groups, and no data on fluid volumes administered, concomitant opioid analgesia, delirium, and other important characteristics.

"Our findings may have important clinical implications because inhaled sedation has garnered growing attention in ICU patients with ARDS or those at risk for the syndrome," Jabaudon and team concluded. "However, this trial does not inform whether outcomes would have differed with shorter durations of sevoflurane or with the use of other volatile anesthetics such as isoflurane. Such knowledge gaps may be addressed by ongoing trials of inhaled isoflurane sedation for mechanically ventilated ICU patients."

Disclosures

The trial was funded by the French Ministry of Health, the European Society of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care, and Sedana Medical.

Jabaudon reported personal fees from AbbVie and Sedana Medical outside the submitted work.

Co-authors also reported relationships with industry, including Sedana Medical.

Venkatesh reported a leadership fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia paid to the George Institute for Global Health. A co-author disclosed similar funding.

Primary Source

JAMA

Source Reference: opens in a new tab or windowJabaudon M, et al "Inhaled sedation in acute respiratory distress syndrome: The SESAR randomized clinical trial" JAMA 2025; DOI: 10.1001/jama.2025.3169.

Secondary Source

JAMA

Source Reference: opens in a new tab or windowVenkatesh B, et al "Sevoflurane sedation in acute respiratory distress syndrome: Time to put it to sleep" JAMA 2025; DOI: 10.1001/jama.2025.3023.


https://www.medpagetoday.com/pulmonology/generalpulmonary/114727

Cutting-Edge Treatment for Alopecia Is a Repurposed Drug From the 1990s

 The latest trend in treating hair loss may sound familiar -- essentially, it's a repurposed drug first popularized in the 1990s.

Back then, TV viewers were inundated with ads for Rogaine, a sticky topical solution that could help treat thinning hair when applied to the scalp.

Now dermatologists are increasingly prescribing the drug, known generically as minoxidil, in low-dose pills to help men and women maintain or regrow hair.

The practice follows a handful of recent studies suggesting the ingredient works as well -- and possibly better -- when swallowedopens in a new tab or window, rather than applied to hair follicles on the head. Telehealth companies are also driving new demand by offering a quick, easy way to get a prescription and have the pills shipped directly to customers' doors.

Here's a look at the drug:

A Retro Approach to Hair Loss

Minoxidil was originally developed as a pill to treat high blood pressure in the 1970s. Researchers noticed that some patients taking it experienced increased hair growth as a side effect.

The topical form was approved for hair loss by the FDA in 1988, the first drug to win the agency's endorsement for male pattern baldness. Studies showed that men on the medication, which was applied directly to the scalp, had a slower rate of hair loss and, in some cases, regrew hair.

Starting in 1991, a lower dose was approved for women and the brand was aggressively marketed as an over-the-counter medication on TV and in print.

The drug's ability to slow hair loss is likely related to its effect on blood circulation, according to experts.

"By increasing blood flow to the scalp it signals hairs to stay in their grow phase for longer," said Adam Friedman, MD, chair of dermatology at George Washington University. "We're trying to keep those hairs in that growth phase as long as possible."

A recent consensus paperopens in a new tab or window by more than 40 U.S. and international dermatologists concluded that minoxidil pills are effective and often more convenient and affordable than the liquid formulation.

Patients Prefer the Pill

There's little research comparing the two forms of minoxidil, but many dermatologists believe the drug works better as a pill.

At a chemical level, minoxidil is absorbed more directly when digested in the gut than when applied to the hairline. It's also more convenient, with patients taking the drug by mouth once a day, instead of applying the liquid once or twice daily using a dropper.

"As you can imagine, that can be rather onerous," said Susan Taylor, MD, of the University of Pennsylvania. "Although people often enthusiastically begin therapy -- and even see results -- after a while there are many who drop off."

The doses prescribed for oral use are also very low. Dermatologists often direct men to take one half of the lowest-dose pill; women may only need a quarter of a pill.

Those low doses can also reduce the chances for side effects, which can include dizziness, rapid heartbeat, and swollen legs. The drug isn't recommended for people with a history of heart issues or who are pregnant or breastfeeding.

The only other FDA-approved medication for hair loss is finasteride (Propecia), a drug that blocks a byproduct of testosterone that triggers hair loss in men. That drug is generally considered more effective than minoxidil, but it can occasionally cause troubling sexual side effects, including erectile dysfunctionopens in a new tab or window. For optimal results, some dermatologists prescribe the two drugs in combination.

Why aren't minoxidil pills FDA-approved for hair loss?

In short, because there's very little money to be made.

Minoxidil's patent has expired and it is now available as a low-cost generic, so drugmakers have little financial incentive to spend millions on the new studies that would be needed to win FDA approval for hair loss.

"For a drug like oral minoxidil -- which is as old as dirt at this point -- there are no reasons to do that," said Friedman. Like other dermatologists, Friedman gives hair-loss patients an off-label prescription for the pills intended to treat blood pressure.

The upside for patients is that minoxidil is extremely affordable, with some pharmacies offering a month's supply for less than $5.

"Not a single patient has complained to me about the cost of this medication, which is extremely rare," said Luis Garza, MD, of Johns Hopkins University.

Telehealth Firms Open Up Access

The vast majority of doctors prescribing minoxidil for hair loss are dermatologists, who often turn to older drugs off-label for various hair and skin conditions.

A survey of U.S. dermatologists published last year found 80% reported prescribing oral minoxidil. But with only about 12,000 dermatologists in the U.S., some patients may have trouble finding a provider.

Telehealth providers like Hims and Ro say they are helping fill the gap. The companies' business model offers patients quick access to the medications they are seeking, often after simply filling out a questionnaire about their medical history, medications, and treatment goals. The information is reviewed by a health provider who can quickly approve a prescription, assuming there are no red flags.

Hims and Ro each say that their providers won't prescribe minoxidil for patients who have complicating health conditions or prescriptions that could negatively interact with the drug. In some cases, patients may be referred for an office visit.

Many dermatologists say patients are better served by an in-person appointment, where a doctor will usually take a blood pressure reading, evaluate medical history, prescriptions, and discuss the drug's side effects.

"I'm not a proponent of going to an online service," said Taylor. "I recommend seeing your board-certified dermatologist who's trained, who knows the data and can evaluate all of you."

https://www.medpagetoday.com/dermatology/generaldermatology/114730

Turkey Unexpectedly Hikes Lending Rate In Scramble To Prop Up Crashing Lira

 Just as Wall Street had gotten all bulled up on Turkey, urging clients to buy the lira (countless previous rugpulls of carry traders notwithstanding) amid expectations of easing inflation, declining interest rates, and a generally pro-market posture, Erdogan stunned everyone on Wednesday by sparking the biggest meltdown in the currency and Turkish markets in years when he arrested his chief opposition challenger for the presidential post, confirming yet again that Turkey is the biggest banana republic in the emerging market universe by far (because Erdogan believes he is untouchable by Western nations as he has become the most important force in Europe thanks to his massive military, which is the second largest in NATO).

And then, moments ago Turkey pulled shocker number 2 in 24 hours, when the Turkish central bank shocked the market again when it raised its overnight lending rate by two percentage points in a surprise meeting on Thursday to support the lira and mitigate the impact from the currency’s sudden decline on inflation.

The rate hike came a day after the currency lost as much as 11% amid political turmoil triggered by the detention of a major opposition politician. And, as shown in the chart below, it has done absolutely nothing to restore confidence in the policies of this banana republic, with the USDTRY promptly back to where it was before the rate hike.

“Assessing the risks that these developments may pose to the inflation outlook, measures have been taken to support the tight monetary stance,” the bank said in a statement on its website. The “monetary policy stance will be tightened in case a significant and persistent deterioration in inflation is foreseen.” 

While policymakers left their benchmark, one-week repo rate unchanged at 42.5%, the increase in the overnight rate to 46% would allow them to raise the average cost of funding they provide to commercial lenders, and help further tighten financial conditions. The move is also meant to make fudning of lira shorts more expensive.

After Turkish assets posted the world's biggest losses on Wednesday, including an 8% crash in the stock market which triggered a marketwide circuit breaker, markets showed some signs of stabilization on Thursday, largely thanks to $8 billion in USD sales by the central bank meant to prop up the lira. The only problem is that the CBRT is chronically cash-strapped and as such it will be unable maintain intervention once foreigners lose all faith in the local market, where rates paid on FX positions are an unsustainable 42%, yet with inflation running even higher, Turkey has no choice.

“It is the confirmation of the central bank’s credibility and that yesterday’s events are more political than a change in the orthodox policies implemented since 2023,” said Guillaume Tresca, an emerging-markets strategist at Generali Investments, who was clearly long Turkey and was hoping his soothing words would convince someone.

Meanwhile, expectations that the monetary authority could slow down or pause its rate cuts saw investors sell banking shares, with Turkish lenders’ equities dropping as much as 9% on Thursday.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/turkey-unexpectedly-hikes-lending-rate-scramble-prop-crashing-lira