Israel Accuses Iran of Breaching Truce Trump Said Was in Effect

 Israel has accused Iran of breaching a ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump earlier Tuesday to end to the 12-day war.Hours after Trump’s declaration of a truce, Israel detected missile launches. Its defense minister instructed the military to “respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with powerful strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran.”

Iran has yet to confirm publicly that it agreed to the ceasefire.

“THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT,” Trump said at around 9:10 a.m. Dubai time on Truth Social. “PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had confirmed Israel agreed to a truce and said his country’s achieved its war goals in Iran.

The comments came after Tehran fired several waves of missiles on Israel on Tuesday morning. Israel also further attacked Iran.

The truce followed an extraordinary night in which Tehran retaliated against a US attack over the weekend by launching missiles at an American air base in Qatar. The Islamic Republic’s move was telegraphed — with Qatar and the US being forewarned — and there were no casualties.

Trump said the strike at Qatar was “weak” and that Iran had “gotten it out of their system.” He even thanked Tehran for “giving us early notice.”

Oil prices plunged when it became clear the strikes on Qatar weren’t deadly, with traders taking it as a sign that Iran had no intention of escalating tensions with Washington, let alone engulfing other countries in the oil-rich region in a wider war.

Brent fell more than 3% to around $69.15 a barrel in early trading on Tuesday, following a drop of more than 7% on Monday. It’s now back to the level it was before Israel started attacking Iran on June 13.

Israel was still striking targets in Iran early on Tuesday, but the explosions in Tehran seemed to stop at about 4 a.m. local time, the BBC reported, citing local residents.

While Israeli officials remained silent overnight, a senior White House official said Trump brokered the ceasefire in a direct conversation with Netanyahu on Monday. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff held direct and indirect talks with the Iranians about the proposal, the official said.

Israel agreed to the truce as long as Iran did not launch further attacks, and the Iranian government signaled it would abide by those terms, according to the official.

“For now, I think this is going to hold, and I think you will have an end to the war,” said Dennis Ross, who was President Bill Clinton’s envoy to the region and is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Iran has no interest in resuming anything soon.”

The developments came about two days after the US suddenly entered the conflict directly by bombing key Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Trump said the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” the sites, though battle damage assessments continue and the whereabouts of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is unknown.

Trump had warned Iran late Saturday that if a peace deal wasn’t reached quickly following the strikes that the US would go after other targets in Iran with “precision, speed and skill.”

Tehran vowed to respond to the unprecedented US attack. But opted for a mostly symbolic response: firing missiles at the Al Udeid base in Qatar, which hosts the Middle East headquarters for US Central Command, the organization that oversees the American military in the region.

The US has around 9,000 service members in Qatar and 50,000 in the Middle East.

Qatar said the Iranian missile barrage was intercepted and the base had been evacuated in advance.

Iran’s move on Monday appeared to be “a largely symbolic retaliation,” said Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ chief emerging-market economist. “Plenty of warning was given — Qatar shut its airspace and the US issued warnings to citizens” in the gas-rich country.

While Iranian state TV said the missile barrage “forced a ceasefire on the enemy,” some Iranian officials also suggested the move had a performative element to it. The number of missiles fired matched the number of bombs deployed by the US against the nuclear sites.

Iran was quick to say that Qatar, which has strong relations with Tehran as well as Washington, was a “friendly and brotherly country.”

A diplomat briefed on the talks said Trump had spoken with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad and informed him the US got Israel to agree to a ceasefire. Trump asked the Qatari leader for help persuading Iran to do the same. Iran later agreed, according to the diplomat, who asked not to be identified discussing private conversations.

Trump went as far as predicting that a peace agreement between Israel and Iran would be long-lasting, despite decades of enmity between them.

“I think the ceasefire is unlimited — it’s going to go forever,” Trump said, adding that he sees the war as being completely finished and does not believe Israel and Iran “will ever be shooting at each other again.”

Many questions remain, including the state of Iran’s uranium stockpile and whether any ceasefire will lead to discussions about Tehran’s nuclear program. The Islamic Republic, which has denied it’s seeking an atomic weapon, has refused to give up the right to enrich uranium, a condition the US has insisted upon.

Iran says it needs to process uranium at least to the low level needed for civilian purposes such as fueling nuclear power plants. Yet the West and Arab states are wary because it’s enriched uranium almost to the levels needed to build a bomb, without explaining why.

Israel said its war against Iran was to prevent the country from acquiring atomic weapons, a risk also cited by Trump to justify US involvement. Netanyahu’s government has also said it aimed to destroy Iran’s stockpiles of ballistic missiles and its launch sites.

While Israel has denied it is seeking to topple the theocratic government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it’s officials have said its attacks could bring about such a situation. For now, there’s little sign that will happen.

Speaking to Fox News after Trump announced the ceasefire, US Vice President Vance said that the US bombing over the weekend had met its objectives.

“We know that they cannot build a nuclear weapon,” Vance said, adding that Iran’s existing stock of highly enriched uranium was “buried” by the attack. International monitors have said they don’t know where that material is after Iran said earlier this month it would move it.

“If Iran is desperate to build a nuclear weapon in the future, then they’re going to have to deal with a very, very powerful American military,” Vance said.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netanyahu-confirms-israel-agreed-ceasefire-062910250.html

Turkey Rejects Open-Door Policy For Refugees If Iran Falls Apart

 Via Middle East Eye

Israeli and US attacks on Iran risk sparking a regional war or even triggering regime change in the country, a development that has concerned Turkish officials in Ankara since September. The Israeli strikes that began earlier this month initially targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and air defense systems.

Over time, however, Israel shifted its focus toward the Iranian government’s command structure and later moved on to domestic security buildings. For example, on Monday, Israeli forces reportedly targeted the internal headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as the notorious Evin prison, where political prisoners are held.

One Israeli minister even suggested that Israel was cooperating with the Iranian opposition, reinforcing Defence Minister Israel Katz’s public statements that Israel seeks regime change or at least aims to undermine the Tehran government.

That is a prospect that US President Donald Trump tried to normalize on Sunday night with a post on Truth Social. “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change???” he asked. 

The Turkish government is acutely aware of the repercussions of regime-change operations and wars, having experienced the destabilizing effects of the 2003 US-led Iraqi invasion and, more recently, the 2011-24 Syrian [proxy] civil war. These conflicts have often resulted in hundreds of thousands of refugees crossing into Turkey and have disrupted key sectors such as energy and trade.

Turkish society remains highly sensitive about the presence of refugees, notably the 2.7 million Syrians, many of whom are now returning to Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government. Experts and officials emphasize that there is currently no new wave of refugees.

However, several sources familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye that as early as September, the Turkish government conducted in-depth studies on potential migration scenarios. They estimated that a full-scale war between Israel and Iran could push up to one million Iranian refugees towards the Turkish border.

Turkey has the experience. In 2012, then-foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu attempted to control the influx of Syrian refugees by capping their number at 100,000 and threatening to establish a safe zone in northern Syria. However, the number of refugees quickly surpassed three million in the following years, which taught Ankara a difficult lesson.

Now, sources say Ankara is unlikely to accept any refugees except those in urgent need of emergency assistance.

“If the worst-case scenario were to occur and there was a mass migration from Iran to Turkey, whether permanent or in transit, Ankara would fulfil its obligations under humanitarian law, but it would not implement an open-door policy,” Serhan Afacan, president of the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara, told Middle East Eye.

A Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Ankara would no longer apply an “open door” policy toward any neighbouring country in the event of a refugee wave. Iranians currently can enter Turkey without a visa.

An elite influx?

Many Turkish citizens are particularly wary of the possible arrival of the 4.5 million Afghans currently living in Iran. However, Afacan noted that millions of Turkish-speaking ethnic Azerbaijanis also live in Iran. He said that if they were to gather at the border, it could shift the debate in Turkey and stir nationalistic sentiments. “But at present, there are no indications that Turks in Iran are planning to migrate,” Afacan added.

Last week, sources from the Turkish defence ministry told journalists there is currently no sign of a refugee influx into Turkey. One source stated that additional security measures have been implemented along all borders, including with Iran, and there is no uncontrolled migration. The Turkish Armed Forces are said to be prepared for all possible scenarios arising from regional developments.

This raises the question of whether Turkey would allow Iranian elites, including government officials, to enter if their government collapses. Many Iranians have already bought homes or acquired Turkish citizenship through investment in recent years.

According to interior ministry data released this year, 76,000 Iranians hold residence permits in Turkey. At least 35,000 have purchased homes since 2019, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute data released in 2024.

Via Stratfor

It is unclear whether all these purchases were made to obtain Turkish citizenship, but a naturalisation consultancy expert told MEE that Iranians are among the top nationalities seeking Turkish citizenship. Between 2012 and 2024, a total of 384,000 homes were sold to foreigners.

Afacan said many Iranian officials and military officers already own property in Turkey. For instance, during the emergency elections following President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash last year, there was a major controversy over claims that Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and his family owned several luxurious apartments in an upscale Istanbul residence.

Afacan added that, as in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, albeit on a much smaller scale, a significant number of Iranian government officials would likely head to Turkey if the government were to fall.

“I do not believe that Turkey would close its doors to such individuals in that kind of scenario,” he said.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkey-rejects-open-door-policy-refugees-if-iran-falls-apart

Amgen experimental weight-loss drug needs lower dose to limit side effects

 Amgen's long-acting experimental obesity drug MariTide needs to be given at a low starting dose to limit side effects like vomiting,

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/low-start-dose-amgen-experimental-weight-loss-drug-limits-side-effects-2025-06-23/

EU and Canada Sign Security Pact as Carney Pivots From US

 

The European Union and Canada have signed a security partnership that moves them closer to cooperation on military purchases, as Prime Minister Mark Carney aims to reduce his country’s dependence on the US for defense.

Carney and EU leaders described the move as a first step toward participation in the 27-member bloc’s €150 billion ($173 billion) joint-purchase loan pool dubbed Security Action for Europe (SAFE), part of its proposed €800 billion ReArm Europe initiative. Access to SAFE still has to be negotiated and requires purchase-by-purchase agreements led by European partners.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-23/eu-and-canada-sign-security-pact-as-carney-pivots-from-us

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commentary-oil-isnt-the-economic-weapon-it-used-to-be-230718895.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-nato-summit-push-historic-5-spending-goal-amid-global-conflicts

Eyes On Beijing's Annual Reshuffle Of Military Chiefs Amid Signs Of Xi's Waning Power

 by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

As infighting within the top echelons of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) intensifies, many China watchers are wondering if Chinese leader Xi Jinping is still in power and really in control, especially of the military.

According to long-standing CCP practice, a group of generals are promoted before Army Day on Aug. 1 every year. Since many generals were reported to have been taken down or investigated in an alleged military purge over the last year, whether Xi will promote any generals or announce new appointments before Aug. 1 has attracted attention as an indication of whether he’s still in control of the military.

Xu Qiliang, former vice chairman of the CCP’s Central Military Commission, the highest military leadership body of the communist regime, suddenly passed away on June 2, making him the latest casualty following a string of top CCP military officials who have encountered misfortunes, including sudden death, arrest, or simply disappearing.

Meanwhile, He Weidong, one of two vice chairmen of the Central Military Commission, whose status in the military is second only to the other vice chairman, Zhang Youxia, disappeared from the public eye on March 11 after the closing ceremony of the third session of the National People’s Congress. He is regarded as one of Xi’s most trusted men. There have been rumors coming out of Beijing that He was under investigation.

With this, some observers have speculated that Zhang is now in charge of the CCP’s military and that he stripped Xi’s power last year.

Since two other members of the Central Military Commission—Li Shangfu and Miao Hua—were successively brought down in the two years prior, if He’s absence is officially confirmed, the number of members of the Central Military Commission will drop from seven to four.

Who will fill these top military positions and who will replace the generals who have been pushed out is a focus for this year’s Army Day.

Generals in Prison Enough to Form a Military Company

In the past 13 years since Xi became CCP leader, he has launched waves of “anti-corruption” campaigns to purge his political enemies, many of whom were in the military, to consolidate his power.

“So much resentment has been accumulating for 13 years,” Su Tzu-yun, researcher and director of Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told the Chinese language Epoch Times on June 16. “The CCP’s internal struggle in the name of anti-corruption is more dangerous than a battlefield.”

But within one year from 2023 to 2024, the Chinese regime began to see purges, with 12 top PLA (People’s Liberation Army) officials removed in the name of “anti-corruption;” including Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe who were both former ministers of defense, three rocket force commanders, and one air force commander, and others.

In 2024, overseas Chinese media re-posted a now-deleted X post by China observer “Li Jun” listing the names and ranks of 101 top CCP military leaders who were put in jail. Li said there were enough individuals to form a military company, with 97 being at “general-level” alongside four more “colonel-level” cadres.

Su noted that all the senior military officials purged over the last year were previously promoted to their position by Xi.

“At present, it seems that only Zhang Youxia has the power to carry out the purge, and Xi Jinping may have become a rubber stamp, otherwise, not all of them would be people from Xi’s faction,” he said.

U.S.-based China affairs observer Tang Jingyuan shares the same assessment. He told the Epoch Times on June 16 that “not only this wave of the large-scale purge is almost entirely aimed at Xi Jinping’s cronies ... those replacements are all people from Zhang Youxia’s faction,” while some positions after the purge remain vacant.

“This means there might have been a huge replacement and transfer of power in the CCP’s military,” Tang said. “Once control over the military is transferred, it means that the party leader’s power base has collapsed. So now, Xi Jinping may still be the top leader in name, but in fact, he has lost control of the highest power of the CCP.”

Shen Ming-shih, director of the Division of National Security Research at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times on June 16 that such speculation is difficult to confirm as there is no public information about the power struggles within the CCP, and no way to get official clarification or proof of any internal strife either.

Soldiers of the People's Liberation Army are seen before a giant screen as Chinese leader Xi Jinping speaks at the military parade marking the 70th founding anniversary of the regime in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019. Jason Lee/Reuters

“It’s expressed entirely through vague information or vague language, and even deliberately uses such vague language to indicate who is in power or who has stepped down. It’s harder for the outside world to read these signs.”

Possible Personnel Changes by Army Day

U.S.-based China affairs commentator Chen Pokong told The Epoch Times that this year’s Army Day will be a major point to observe who will be promoted in the military and which faction they belong to.

“If they really want to add new members to the Central Military Commission on the Aug. 1 Army Day, they must be confirmed by the Fourth Plenary Session of the CCP’s Central Committee, which is definitely a big fight between the Xi faction and the anti-Xi faction.”

If new members are added, it will also show which faction has the upper hand in the CCP’s infighting, Chen said.

Shen said it remains unclear which exact dates the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee will be held amid the rumors of a power struggle.

“If it is held before the end of June, the CCP’s general secretary or the Central Military Commission will have made the personnel arrangement to promote a group of generals before the Aug. 1 Army Day,” he said.

Insiders close to the regime’s top circle have leaked two possible dates for the top CCP political meeting. Well-known independent current affairs commentator Cai Shenqun cited a source within the regime saying that the Fourth Plenary Session will be held Aug. 27 to Aug. 30.

Meanwhile, Australia-based current affairs commentator Jiang Wangzheng has said that according to his source in China, the top meeting will be held on Oct. 13 to Oct. 16.

Chen said that the CCP’s personnel arrangements are opaque and that it has been very difficult for the various factions to reach an agreement.

“The internal struggles of the CCP’s top leaders may be far more fierce than the outside world imagines, and the CCP and its military are in a precarious state,” he said.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/all-eyes-beijings-annual-reshuffle-military-chiefs-amid-signs-xis-waning-power