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Friday, February 28, 2020

Italy moves to curb virus impact as more countries get cases

Italian health authorities asked residents in northern Italy to ride out shuttered schools, closed factories and other public health measures for a little longer Friday as the country’s count of coronavirus cases rose to 888, the most by far of any nation outside Asia.
Under quarantine orders the government imposed on 11 towns a week ago, only supermarkets and pharmacies have been allowed to open in the so-called “red zone.” But to the relief of Italians who use post offices for banking or to collect pension checks, local branches were cleared to re-open Monday, Italy’s civil protection chief said.
Government officials sought to allay the public’s fear and the hit Italy’s tourism industry has taken since clusters of virus infections appeared in the Lombardy and Veneto regions a week ago. The civil protection chief said that more than 400 people who tested positive are mildly ill or not sick at all while isolated at home.
“The aim is to return to normalcy,” Veneto Gov. Luca Zaia told Italian state TV, in an interview, noting that 79 of the 133 people in his region with the virus “have no symptoms and are in perfect health.”
Meanwhile, other countries made a different diagnosis. Since Thursday night, cases with links to Italy were reported in Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, United Arab Emirates, Greece, France and Nigeria – the first known case in sub-Saharan Africa.
In all, 24 cases have been exported from Italy to 14 countries, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom said. Later Friday, the list grew to 15 countries when Iceland said a one of its nationals who had traveled to Italy tested positive after returning home.
While Italy was looking to lift outbreak-related restrictions, other European countries suspended activities and events in an attempt to control the virus’ spread.
Italy’s neighbor, Switzerland, Friday banned all public events involving more than 1,000 people until March 15, including the annual Geneva International Motor Show. Montenegro suspended flights to and from Bologna and Milan.
An Italian Civil Protection statement listed 888 cases in 13 regions and one autonomous province by Friday night.
Among the new cases was a woman with mild symptoms from Fiumicino, a suburb of Rome on the outskirts of Leonardo da Vinci airport, health officials said. She is the Rome area’s first case, not counting two Chinese tourists who took ill while staying in a hotel a few weeks ago.
The woman, who was placed under quarantine along with her close contacts wastested positive on Friday, had recently been in Bergamo, a city in Lombardy, officials said.
The number of deaths of people with the virus increased to 21. All of the people who died were elderly, already seriously ill or both, and Civil Protection chief Angelo Borrelli noted that it hadn’t been yet determined if all those deaths were actually caused by the virus.
France saw case totals suddenly jump to 57, prompting authorities to test a raft of people, limit some public activities and try to determine the source of the latest infections. Most are concentrated in the Oise region north of Paris, where a teacher with the virus died this week.
Spain also saw an uptick, raising the national tally to 34 by Friday, with all but a handful linked to Italy’s outbreak. Germany has reported 53 cases.
The public health authority in the southern Dutch province of Limburg, which borders Germany, advised local authorities to cancel public events at which Dutch and German residents mix “because of the exponential growth in the number of corona infections just over the border.”
Leading Italian medical authorities insisted that the transmission rate should be steeply slowed before schools in heavily involved regions like Lombardy could resume classes.
“It’s not an easy situation,” said Dr. Massimo Galli, a top official at Milan’s Sacco Hospital. “Let’s forget about thinking it can be easily resolved, even though it’s not popular to say that.”
Galli said health authorities are aiming to reduce the current rate of transmission of about 2.6 cases from each infected person to less than one.
The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control put the risk of case clusters like Italy’s cropping up in other countries at “moderate to high.” If that happens, the infected stricken areas can expect a significant impact, “especially if hospitals were affected and a large number of healthcare workers had to be isolated,” the health agency said.
“The rigorous that were implemented immediately after identifying the Italian COVID-19 cases will reduce but not exclude the probability of further spread.,” it said.
But as Italians yearned for a return to their daily routines, schools, museums, shops and other appeared likely to stay closed for another week.
“We are asking people to make some sacrifice for a few more days,” based on scientific advice, Lombardy health official Giulio Gallera told reporters Friday evening.
More than inconvenience was at stake. Italy, with its long stagnant economy, risks a recession the longer the quarantines and other containment measures drag on factory production, tourism and other industries. Lombardy and Veneto are key industrial and agricultural areas, and include tourist popular cities such as Venice and Milan.
Premier Giuseppe Conte’s Cabinet was meeting Friday evening to approve “urgent measures of support for families, workers and businesses” affected by the public health emergency, his office said.
Researchers at Milan’s Sacco Hospital announced that they had isolated in four patients an Italian variation of COVID-19, with differences from the strain identified in Wuhan, China, where the epidemic began. They expressed hope the discovery could lead to more targeted treatment of patients.
Research suggests the virus might have been present for some time in Italy before cases started exploding in Lombardy. “The virus has been circulating under the radar for a few weeks,” Galli, the hospital’s director of biomedical and clinical services, told state TV.
Culture Minister Dario Franceschini said that among the most suffering economic sectors were hotels, which have been forced to return reservation deposits.
“They are experiencing a liquidity problem,” said Franceschini, adding that cancellations were running as high as 90% in some places, including many locations without infections.
“I’m about to lose everything if it continues like this,” said Emanuela Soppelsa, who owns the 60-guest Hotel Al Parco near Moena in an Italian ski resort area. She told The AP that 60 Polish skiers had cancelled their March 7-14 booking.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-italy-curb-virus-impact-countries.html

Bernie’s math problem

Anyone in earshot of a television set, or a smart phone, is undoubtedly aware that the undisputed front-runner in the Democratic Primary wants to spend more money – a lot of it. And, while these policies are economically flawed, Senator Sanders also has a fundamental math problem.
Reviewing his website, there is a long list of new spending promises.
Perhaps his top spending priority is his desire to nationalize health care where patients pay “no premiums, no deductibles, no co-pays”. But, this spending is only the beginning.
He will implement the Green New Deal making “investments in weatherization, public transportation, modern infrastructure and high-speed broadband… providing $200 billion to the Green Climate Fund…[and] invest in conservation”.
With respect to education, Senator Sanders wants to “guarantee tuition and debt-free public colleges” to all, “cancel all student loan debt for the some 45 million Americans who owe about $1.6 trillion and place a cap on student loan interest rates going forward at 1.88 percent.” The Senator also wants to spend “$1.3 billion every year in private, non-profit historically black colleges and universities and minority-serving institutions.”
If these new spending promises were not enough, Senator Sanders will spend “$2.5 trillion to build nearly 10 million permanently affordable housing units” and spend “$70 billion to repair, decarbonize, and build new public housing”.
Then there is the expansion of Social Security benefits, the elimination of the “$81 billion in past-due medical debt”, the guaranteed minimum wage for teachers of $60,000 a year, and the universal childcare proposals. Of course, these new spending promises are on top of the $4.6 trillion the federal government is already spending.
How Senator Sanders plans on paying for all of this new spending is also well known – he will ensure that the “billionaires pay their fair share of taxes”. For example, he has proposed a wealth tax on the super-rich that begins with a 1% tax on wealth above $32 million. The tax would progressively increase capping out at an 8% tax on wealth over $10 billion.
Even though these taxes are unprecedented and economically destructive, the amount of money he can raise from his tax plans pale in comparison to the Senator’s spending needs. To see why, imagine the following argumentum ad absurdum. Instead of only taxing a portion of the rich’s wealth, imagine that Senator Sanders simply expropriated all of it.
It is, of course, impossible to instantaneously liquidate the assets of all of the billionaires living in the U.S., but if we could liquidate their entire holdings without reducing the value, then, based on the net worth data maintained by Forbes.com, this government taking would raise a combined $3.1 trillion in revenue for the federal government as of 2019.
While $3.1 trillion is a tremendous sum, it is mere spare change in comparison to Senator Sanders’ spending needs. Take just one of his spending programs – Medicare for All. According to the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, Medicare for All would increase federal spending by $32 trillion over 10-years. Adjusting its assumptions to be consistent with the Mercatus Center’s analysis, and the Urban Institute found that the 10-year cost of Medicare for All was $36 trillion.
While the annual cost is not precisely one-tenth of the ten-year total, as a back-of-the-envelope calculation, these studies imply that Senator Sanders’ plan to nationalize health care would cost between $3.2 trillion and $3.6 trillion a year.
Therefore, even if it were possible to expropriate the entire net worth of all of the country’s billionaires, their wealth could scarcely fund Medicare for All for one year. Beginning in the second year of the program, unless other broad-based taxes were imposed on everyone else, Medicare for All would be bankrupt.
Of course, our absurd wealth appropriation tax has not funded the Senator’s spending plans for the Green New Deal. Nor has he funded his education spending plans, expanded Social Security benefits, free college tuition, and the scores of other new government programs the Senator promises to voters every day on the campaign trail. Clearly, Senator Sanders’ math does not add up.
The damage created by Senator Sanders ideas are also easy to see under this ridiculous policy scenario. The fortunes that Senator Sanders is attempting to expropriate exist because entrepreneurs fundamentally improved the way we live and work — think Steve Jobs revolutionizing the technology sector.
Expropriating wealth creates economic obstacles that will prevent the next generation of entrepreneurs from improving our lives. Perhaps the lost investment will deny us the next clean-energy technology, or the next life-saving medicine. Perhaps it will be a better smart phone. While these lost opportunities are, by definition, unknown they are no less real.
These lost opportunities are the real costs of the Senator’s policies. While Senator Sanders likes to say, “he wrote the damn bill”, and that may be true, he clearly has not done the math.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/waynewinegarden/2020/02/24/bernies-math-problem/#ce751d568d60

CDC Broadens ‘Person Under Investigation’ Definition for COVID-19

In a telebriefing on the COVID-19 outbreak, Nancy Messonnier, MD, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that the agency has updated the definition of “Person Under Investigation,” or PUI, for the disease.
The definition has been revised “to meet the needs of this rapidly evolving situation,” she said. The new PUI definition includes travel to more geographic areas to reflect this past week’s marked uptick in coronavirus activity in Italy and Iran. In addition to these countries and China, recent travel to Japan or South Korea also constitutes an epidemiologic risk factor which, in conjunction with clinical features, warrant an individual being classified as a PUI. These five countries each now have widespread person-to-person transmission of the virus.
Dr. Messonnier left open the possibility that the PUI definition would continue to evolve if such transmission within communities becomes more common. Asked whether the small number of U.S. cases thus might be an artifact of low test volumes, she said, “We aggressively controlled our borders to slow the spread. This was an intentional U.S. strategy. The CDC has always had the capacity to test rapidly from the time the sequence was available. …We have been testing aggressively.”
The original PUI definition, she explained, emphasized individuals with fever, cough, or trouble breathing who had traveled recently from areas with COVID-19 activity, in particular China’s Hubei province. “We have been most focused on symptomatic people who are closely linked to, or who had, travel history, but our criteria also allow for clinical discretion,” she said. “There is no substitute for an astute clinician on the front lines of patient care.”
The first COVID-19 case from person-to-person spread was reported on Feb. 27. “At this time, we don’t know how or where this person became infected,” said Dr. Messonnier, although investigations are still underway. She responded to a question about whether the CDC delayed allowing COVID-19 testing for the patient for several days, as was reported in some media accounts.
“According to CDC records, the first call we got was Feb. 23,” when public health officials in California reported a severely ill person with no travel abroad and no known contacts with individuals that would trigger suspicions for coronavirus. The CDC recommended COVID-19 testing on that day, she said.
Dr. Messonnier declined to answer questions about a whistleblower report alleging improper training and inadequate protective measures for Department of Health & Human Services workers at the quarantine center at Travis Air Force Base, Calif.

Pfizer gets OK for Advil Dual Action

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) has received FDA approval for its new combination drug Advil Dual Action, a pain reliever combining acetaminophen with Advil’s typical ibuprofen.
The two-medicine tablets each contain 250 mg of acetaminophen and 125 mg of ibuprofen.

Major Events Canceled By Coronavirus So Far

Although the coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, has not officially been declared a pandemic, multiple companies have canceled events around the world due to fear of travel. Here are the latest.
The Latest: Geneva International Motor Show (GIMS)
The 90th Geneva International Motor Show has been canceled. It was set to begin next week. The Swiss government has banned all “public and private” events with more than 1,000 people. In a statement, GIMS/Palexpo SA said “The 90th edition of the GIMS, which was supposed to welcome the media from next Monday and the general public from 5 to 15 March 2020, will now finally not take place. This is an injonction decision of the Federal Council of 28 February 2020 that no events with more than 1,000 people are allowed to take place until 15 March 2020. The decision falls 3 days before the opening of the exhibition to the media.”
Some companies that were set to exhibit at GIMS were:
Audi AUDVF 14.86%
Volkswagen VWAPY 2.75%
Hyundai HYMTF 9.48%
BMW BMWYY 0.51%
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles FCAU 0.65%
Honda Motor Co. HMC 1%
Mazda Motor Corp MZDAY 2.89%
Daimler AG DMLRY 0.77%
Renault RNLSY
Toyota Mortor Corp TM 0.56%

ITB Berlin

One of the world’s largest travel trade shows, ITB Berlin was set to take place on March 4th through March 8th.
“ITB Berlin 2020 will not take place. Due to the increasing spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19, the Federal Ministry of Health and the Federal Ministry of Economics have decided to cancel ITB Berlin. The responsible health authority of Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf of Berlin has increased the requirements for the event to take place early this evening (18:27). Among other things, the authority orders Every trade fair participant must prove to Messe Berlin that they do not come from the defined risk areas or have had contact with a person from the risk areas. Messe Berlin is unable to implement all these requirements.”

Facebook

Facebook FB 1.43% canceled its annual F8 developer conference due to fears over the coronavirus. The event was originally scheduled for May 5th and 6th, but instead, the company will host local events and live stream some content in an effort to make up for the in-person component of the conference.
Before the cancellation of its F8 conference, Facebook also canceled its Global Marketing Summit citing health concerns due to the recent outbreak. The event was scheduled to take place March 9 through 12.

MWC

One of the biggest tech events of the year, MWC (formerly known as Mobile World Congress), was canceled over growing concerns around the coronavirus. Hosted in Barcelona, the event gathers exhibitors and press from all over the world, with a lot coming from China.
The event attracts roughly 100,000 attendees, making it one of the highest-profile events canceled over the coronavirus. Some notable attendees included Amazon AMZN 0.03%, Intel INTC 0.56%, Facebook and Sony SNE 2.15%.

Global Fashion Weeks

Beijing and Shanghai’s fashion weeks, set to take place at the end of March, have both been postponed. This makes sense, as most coronavirus cases are China, but Chinese fashion brands have also pulled out of the more notable fashion weeks which take place in Paris and Milan.

Workday

The SaaS provider canceled a sales conference that was set to take place in Orlando next week. The event was scheduled to have roughly 3,000 attendees.

Here Are Some Events The Coronavirus Might Impact

The Game Developer Conference

Amazon Web Services announced it pulled out of the event over continued concerns around the coronavirus. In its place, the company will host an online event. Although this does not necessarily mean the conference itself will be canceled, but Amazon isn’t the first big name to pull out. Other notable companies that pulled out already include Facebook, Sony, EA EA 1.33%, Epic Games and Microsoft MFST 89.9%.

Google’s IO 2020 conference

The company reported it’s allowing registration cancellations until April 15th. The whole event could be canceled if the situation worsens.
https://www.benzinga.com/news/20/02/15433160/here-are-all-the-major-events-canceled-by-coronavirus-so-far

Cellular Biomedicine EPS beats by $0.08

Cellular Biomedicine (NASDAQ:CBMG): FY GAAP EPS of -$2.63 beats by $0.08.
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $32.4M
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3547178-cellular-biomedicine-eps-beats-0_08

BofA expects Fed to go ’50’ in March

While most (if not all) expect the Fed to ease policy in March, most (if not all) anticipate just a 25 basis point move.
Bank of America, however, is now predicting the Fed will cut by 50 basis points to “stem the panic in markets.”
The March meeting isn’t until the 18th though. If one suspects BofA may be right about the “50,” one must also feel that the Fed isn’t going to wait that long. Given Jay Powell’s statement this afternoon, a big move prior to Monday’s open seems a betting chance.
The 10-year Treasury, meanwhile, looks like it could test the 1% level pretty soon. The yield is down another 13 basis points today to 1.13%. TLT +2.4%, TBT -4.6%
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3547167-bofa-expects-fed-to-go-50-in-march