Express Scripts most exposed to mail order market disruption, says Barclays

Barclays analyst Steve Valiquette believes Express Scripts (ESRX) is most exposed to Amazon’s (AMZN) acquisition of PillPack. The analyst estimates Express Scripts has 35%-40% share of the U.S. prescription mail order market. The mail order prescription market is the most immediate area for possible disruption from Amazon/PillPack given the nature of PillPack’s business and Amazon’s existing mail-order logistical infrastructure, Valiquette tells investors in a research note. The analyst assumes PillPack captures 1% share of the U.S. mail-order Rx market in 2019, and improves its market share further by 1% each year afterwards. Valiquette calculates a “hypothetical” 13c negative earnings per share impact for Express Scripts in 2019. He believes the negative earnings impact could reach 45c by 2021, but thinks Express Scripts could undertake expense cuts to offset some of this. For Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), the analyst calculates a negative earnings per share impact of 15c in 2020, or 2% of his current estimate assuming no additional cost-cutting. Valiquette has Equal Weight ratings on both Express Scripts and Walgreens.

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