Goldman Sachs analyst Dana Flanders provides the numbers behind his Street-low fair value target of $168 (46% upside) for Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND -2.1%) which makes money via licensing deals.
He values its base business at $47/share, assuming that Novartis’ Promacta (eltrombopag) and Amgen’s Kyprolis (carfilzomib) reach $1.7B in peak sales and won’t face generic competition until 2024 and 2026, respectively.
Mr. Flanders has $550M in milestones in his model through 2032, on the conservative side considering that the company says its $3B milestone target does not include all of the expected $1.5B from Viking Therapeutics’ pipeline.
His price target assumes $21/share for preclinical and future partnerships, $16/share from Phase 1 assets, $21/share from Phase 2 assets and $15/share from Phase 3 assets.
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