Piper doctor surveys show further Humira erosion outside the U.S.

Piper Jaffray analyst Christopher Raymond says new European rheumatologist and dermatologist surveys suggest further downside potential for branded Humira erosion at the hands of biosimilar competition. While AbbVie management has downwardly revised Humira outside the U.S. erosion estimates twice in recent months, we likely haven’t seen the last such revision, Raymond tells investors in a research note. European doctors project that biosimilars will capture 30%-40% of adalimumab use by mid-2019, which contrasts with management’s 30% fiscal 2019 erosion commentary, adds the analyst. He now models a 35% ex-U.S. fiscal 2019 Humira erosion, but fears it could be worse. Raymond continues to urge caution on shares of AbbVie, “despite a healthy 5.4% dividend yield.” He keeps a Neutral rating on the stock with a $90 price target.

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