COVID-19 – Will there be enough hospital beds?

A USA TODAY analysis shows there could be six seriously ill patients for every existing U.S. hospital bed – and that assumes all 790K beds will be empty. Since two thirds are not, the reality could be far worse: about 17 people competing for each open bed.

“No hospital has current capacity to absorb that” without taking crisis care measures, said Dr. James Lawler, who researches emerging diseases at the University of Nebraska Medical Center and the Global Center for Health Security. “Unless we are able to implement dramatic isolation measures like some places in China, we’ll be presented with overwhelming numbers of coronavirus patients – two to 10 times as we see at peak influenza times.”

In a February presentation to the American Hospital Association, Lawler estimated that as many as 96M Americans could be infected from the coronavirus.

A surge of new patients would strain hospital operators across the U.S. like HCA Healthcare (NYSE:HCA), Tenet Healthcare (NYSE:THC) and United Health Services (NYSE:UHS), though health officials have cited many creative options for expanding capacity.

Hospital cafeterias can be filled with beds to become a makeshift isolation ward, as well as other large buildings, such as school gyms. Other emergency plans include setting up outdoor tents and cots, where they could triage incoming patients.

Hospitals might also choose to prioritize coronavirus care to gain beds typically reserved for other services and convert recovery units into isolation wards.

Update: New York Presbyterian’s 13 hospital network and NYC’s public hospitals announced they would cease elective surgeries. Tents were also erected in the parking lots of medical facilities across the city.

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