Confirmed, Unreported COVID-19-Like Illness Deaths: Reporting Discrepancies

View ORCID ProfileMazbahul G Ahamad, View ORCID ProfileFahian Tanin, Byomkes Talukder

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.20.20158139

This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

PDF: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20158139v2.full.pdf

Abstract

Objective: To assess the reporting discrepancy between officially confirmed COVID-19 death counts and unreported COVID-19-like illness (CLI) death counts. Study Design: The study is based on secondary time-series data. Methods: We used publicly available data to explore the differences between confirmed COVID-19 death counts and deaths with probable COVID-19 symptoms in Bangladesh between March 8, 2020, and July 18, 2020. Both tabular analysis and statistical tests were performed. Results: During the week ending May 9, 2020, the unreported CLI death count was higher than the confirmed COVID-19 death count; however, it was lower in the following weeks. On average, unreported CLI death counts were almost equal to the confirmed COVID-19 death counts during the study period. However, the reporting authority neither considers CLI deaths nor adjusts for potential seasonal influenza-like illness or other related deaths, which might produce incomplete and unreliable COVID-19 data and respective mortality rates. Conclusions: Deaths with probable COVID-19 symptoms needs to be included in provisional death counts in order to estimate an accurate COVID-19 mortality rate and to offer data-driven pandemic response strategies. An urgent initiative is needed to prepare a comprehensive guideline for reporting COVID-19 deaths.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

None.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20158139v2