Probability of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Daniel Bonn, Scott Howard Smith, Aernout Somsen, Cees van Rijn, Stefan Kooij, Lia van der Hoek, Reinout A Bem

doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.16.20155572

This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

Abstract

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 leading to COVID-19 occurs through exhaled respiratory droplets from infected humans. Currently, however, there is much controversy over whether respiratory aerosol microdroplets play an important role as a route of transmission. By measuring and modeling the dynamics of exhaled respiratory droplets we can assess the relative contribution of aerosols in the spreading of SARS-CoV-2. We measure size distribution, total numbers and volumes of respiratory droplets, including aerosols, by speaking and coughing from healthy subjects. Dynamic modelling of exhaled respiratory droplets allows to account for aerosol persistence times in confined public spaces. The probability of infection by inhalation of aerosols when breathing in the same space can then be estimated using current estimates of viral load and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2. In line with the current known reproduction numbers, our study of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 suggests that aerosol transmission is an inefficient route, in particular from non or mildly symptomatic individuals.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

This study was supported in part by the Innovation Exchange Amsterdam (IXA) of the University of Amsterdam.

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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.16.20155572v1