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Thursday, November 12, 2020

Lockdown chatter puts chill on rate rally, hits bank prices

  • Threatening over the last few days to jump above 1% for the first time since the March panic, the 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back eight basis points today to 0.90%.
  • The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) is ahead 1%, and the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:TBT) is down 1.9%. The financial sector is the worst performer in the S&P today, the XLF down 1.4%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE -1.8%). Individual players: Bank of America (BAC -2.8%), JPMorgan (JPM -1.8%), Citigroup (C -1.7%).
  • Euphoria around a vaccine is what had sent the 10-year yield surging earlier this week, but the last 24-48 hours have seen renewed coronavirus-related restrictions put in place in New York, New Jersey, and Ohio, among other U.S. locales, not to mention the continued spread of lockdowns in Europe.
  • Last night, the University of Minnesota's Michael Osterholm suggested a national lockdown of four-six weeks might be necessary to stop the virus. Osterholm has been whistling a similar tune for months (including teaming up with the Fed's Neel Kashkari in August), but now he's among those running policy for the incoming Biden administration, so his trial balloon is worth paying some attention to.
  • https://seekingalpha.com/news/3635610-lots-of-lockdown-chatter-puts-chill-on-rate-rally-hits-bank-prices

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