2020 was the year the biotech sector roared back to life. Led by COVID-19 vaccine developers, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB) returned 25.7% compared to 16.2% in the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), signaling a remarkable turnaround from 2019 when SPY, with a 28.8% gain, outperformed the 25.0% rise in the IBB.
With breakthrough technologies, the COVID-19 vaccine pioneers have dominated the year reaching record-breaking market capitalizations as the pandemic wreaked havoc across the globe.
After languishing with a 25.4% gain in 2019, the vaccine maker Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) has climbed 434.1% in 2020 thanks to its COVID-19 injection, which recently won the FDA authorization for emergency use. The rival, BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX), is trailing with a 140.6% gain even though its partnership with Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) was the first to secure the emergency use signoff in the U.S.
The frontrunners in the COVID-19 vaccine race are on track to generate more data readouts as they seek to file for full FDA clearance in 2021. The rival candidates are likely to join them, potentially capping their outsize gains.
Jefferies has already downgraded Moderna, citing the record stock performance and upcoming Phase 3 data from the likes of AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), and Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX). Against this backdrop, and amid concerns over a new COVID-19 strain detected in the U.K., both Moderna and BioNTech have shed 17.8% and 25.9%, respectively, in December though they have highlighted the efficacy of their shots against the new variant.
With over 3,000 times of increase in value, Novavax (NVAX) appears to have more than priced in its achievements against COVID-19 ahead of key late-stage data readouts scheduled for early 2021. Meanwhile, riding on the success of fellow mRNA-based vaccine developers, CureVac has risen 45.0% since its market debut in August, but the upcoming interim data reads in 2021 will justify its valuation.
A notable laggard in the vaccine race is AstraZeneca (AZN), with its COVID-19 shot developed in partnership with Oxford University recording an overall efficacy rate of only 70% in disease prevention per early data, well below the 95% reported by the approved mRNA-based vaccine developers. The vaccine already cleared in the home market is likely to undergo the U.S. regulatory review in early 2021, as the U.K.-based drug maker expects to submit data from a large American clinical trial by February for FDA approval.
Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), with its late-stage trial fully enrolled, is likely to release interim data in late January for its single-dose vaccine candidate against COVID-19. An application for emergency authorization will follow in February, subject to safety and efficacy, shown in trial data.
Reflecting the insignificant sales impact expected by Big Pharma from coronavirus vaccine franchises, AstraZeneca has remained flat throughout the year while JNJ has only eked out 7.9%, still better than the 6.2% decline of Pfizer.
With only three COVID-19 vaccines getting the regulatory approval so far, albeit, on an emergency basis, there is plenty to look forward to in 2021. Hope is that many other vaccine players will join them in 2021 as the World surely needs several of them to turn the tide against the raging pandemic where new COVID-19 variants have emerged to disrupt the containment efforts.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.