Covid-19 pandemic dynamics following deployment of broad national immunization program

 Hagai Rossman, Smadar Shilo, Tomer Meir, Malka Gorfine*, Uri Shalit*, Eran Segal*

Abstract 

Studies on the real-life impact of the BNT162b2 vaccine, recently authorized for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), are urgently needed. Here, we analysed the temporal dynamics of the number of new COVID-19 cases and hospitalization in Israel following a vaccination campaign initiated on December 20th, 2020. We conducted a retrospective analysis of real-world data from March 2020 to February 2021, originated from the Israeli Ministry of Health (MOH). In order to distill the effect of the vaccinations from other factors, including a third lockdown imposed in Israel on January 2021, we compared the time-dependent changes in number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations between (1) individuals above 60 years old eligible to receive the vaccine earlier and younger individuals (0-59 years old) and (2) cities who vaccinated early compared to late-vaccinated cities. and (3) the current lockdown versus the previous lockdown, imposed on September 2020. By February 2nd 2021, 42.8% and 27.6% of the entire Israeli population (88.9% and 77.7% of individuals older than 60 years old) received the first dose or both doses of the vaccine, respectively, or recovered from COVID-19. In mid-January, the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalization started to decrease, with a larger and earlier decrease among older individuals. This trend was more evident in early-vaccinated compared to late-vaccinated cities. Such a pattern was not observed in the previous lockdown. Our analysis demonstrates early signs for the real-life effectiveness of a national vaccination campaign in Israel on the pandemic dynamics. Although our findings are preliminary, we decided to publish them as they have major public health implications in the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic. More studies aimed at assessing the effectiveness of vaccination both on the individual and on the population level, with larger followup are needed.

https://github.com/hrossman/Patterns-of-covid-19-pandemic-dynamics-following-deployment-of-a-broad-national-immunization-program/raw/main/2021-02-03%20%20-%20Patterns%20of%20covid-19%20pandemic%20dynamics%20following%20deployment%20of%20a%20broad%20national%20immunization%20program.pdf