Florida seen reaching COVID-19 peak surge next week, herd immunity Sept. 11

 New data run through University of South Florida computer models predicts the rate of new COVID-19 infections to peak next week and the state to reach herd immunity Sept. 11.

"The peak will occur Aug 24 – a week from now, so we are very close to the peak of the current wave," said epidemiologist Dr. Edwin Michael of USF's College of Public Health.

Michael said shortly after reaching that peak in new cases on August 24, the number of people who either have been infected or have COVID-19 resistance will reach 90%, which means Florida will reach herd immunity.

"Sept 11 or something like that -- we'll get herd immunity," Michael said.

Michael said the numbers are looking better than they were even two weeks ago: instead of the estimated peak day showing a record 31,000 new cases it is expected to be much lower.

"Now its come down drastically to 23,000 (new cases), and that's because vaccinations have picked up, more people are getting immune -thank God - and another thing we are noting, more people are now observing social mitigation measures on their own," Michael said.

So because more people are getting vaccinated and more are voluntarily wearing masks, the models combine those numbers with the rapid number of people becoming infected, resulting in the estimate that by mid-September, 90% of Floridians will have natural or vaccinated resistance to COVID-19.

Michael said one reason for the accelerated prediction is because so many people are contracting the delta variant right now.

"You're burning through the susceptibles, the delta variant is highly contagious. Its burning through," Michael said.

And once there is hardly anyone else to infect, Michael said the models show COVID-19 will continue to pop up in small spikes, but deaths will end and COVID eventually will die out by early next year.

"We are predicting by early next year this will just go away," Michael said.

Michael said their models closely reflect those done by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

He cautions, however, that variable remain in place. For example, if immunity turns out not too last very long, the virus could begin re-emerging and reinfecting the population.

Michael said that means getting a booster at some point may become an important component to eradicating COVID-19.

https://www.wpbf.com/article/usf-researchers-florida-will-reach-peak-of-covid-surge-next-week-herd-immunity-sept-11/37342961