Daiichi is so far the biggest Enhertu beneficiary

 With global Enhertu sales in calendar 2022, as booked mostly by Daiichi Sankyo, breaching $1bn, it is no less impressive that the total the Japanese group has received in regulatory milestones from its partner Astrazeneca has amounted to nearly the same amount again. Daiichi, which this morning reported third-quarter numbers, reckons the fiscal year ending March will see the total contingent payments from Astra reach $1.2bn, including $968m in US and EU approval milestones and $100m to account for Enhertu US sales hitting $1bn. On top of that, of course, Astra paid Daiichi a $1.35bn up-front fee when it licensed Enhertu in 2019. Daiichi today said Enhertu was on track to sell $1.5bn in the 12 months to March, comfortably meeting Evaluate Pharma sellside consensus for calendar 2022 of $1.2bn. Daiichi still stands to receive up to $2.8bn of regulatory milestones from Astra, presumably some on approval for pre-chemo Her2-low breast cancer, in which the phase 3 Destiny-Breast06 trial is the next big catalyst. Enhertu is expected to sell $6.2bn in 2028; this forecast will likely come up, but given the rich payaways to Daiichi a relevant question is how much of it will end up in Astra’s bottom line.

Daiichi Sankyo's Enhertu forecast for YE Mar 2023
	($m)
In-market sales booked by Daiichi
US sales	1,086
Europe sales	252
ASCA sales	104
Japan sales	95
Global sales	1,537
Cumulative payments received
Up-front payment	1,350
Sales-related milestone*	100
Quid related payment**	132
Cumulative approval milestones received***
3L Her2+ breast (US)	105
3L Her2+ breast (EU)	61
2/3L Her2+ gastric (US)	93
2L Her2+ breast (US)	100
2L Her2+ breast (EU)	77
Post-chemo Her2-low breast (US)	212
Post-chemo Her2-low breast (EU)	150
2L Her2+ gastric (EU)	37
2L Her2m NSCLC (US)	133
Total received from Astrazeneca	2,550
Notes: *up to a further $1.65bn remains due; **accounts for Daiichi Sankyo not taking up rights to Astrazeneca’s products, programmes or technologies; ***up to a further $2.8bn remains due. Source: Daiichi Sankyo report & company statements. https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/snippets/daiichi-so-far-biggest-enhertu-beneficiary