BMO Capital Markets has upgraded BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc
to Outperform from Market Perform, and the price target remains at $102, noting its skewed risk/reward.
Friday, the FDA approved BioMarin's Roctavian (valoctocogene roxaparvovec-rvox) gene therapy for adults with severe hemophilia A without antibodies to adeno-associated virus serotype 5.
The analyst expects Roctavian's uptake to be (s)lower than consensus expectations, and it continues to model ~$65 million /$900 million in total Roctavian 2023/peak sales (vs. ~$83 million/ $1,400 million for consensus).
The analyst says its expectations remain unchanged since January 2023 (vs. ~$215 million /$1,600 million for consensus in January 2023).
The analyst also says that at this valuation (-25% since initiated coverage here), Roctavian constitutes an upside opportunity as it's primarily not priced in.
BMO analyst says Voxzogo's launch has been very successful in Achondroplasia and constitutes a significant growth driver for BioMarin.
At the same time, recent data from BridgeBio Pharma Inc
Infigratinib in Phase 2 suggests that Infigratinib can gain significant market share in Achondroplasia, especially given Infigratinib's clean safety and oral administration. 12-month Phase 2 Infigratinib data is awaited to assess its impact further.Noting Roctavian's (s)low uptake and Infigratinib's impact, BMO sees ~20% upside in BioMarin. The analyst also says that Voxzogo is largely not priced in at these levels (~$86/share) and, therefore, Roctavian's contribution offers an upside opportunity moving forward.
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