First it was Amazon, then Microsoft, now Google telegraphs why the "next AI trade" will generate obnoxious amounts of alpha in the coming years by sending the same message: i) it's all about how all those data centers will be powered, and ii) in the future a growing number of data centers will be powered by small modular nuclear reactors.
On Monday, Google - picking up on what we discussed last week in "Google Turns To Nuclear To Power Its Data Centers" - announced plans to buy power from Kairos Power’s small modular reactors (SMRs) as part of a growing industry shift toward nuclear energy to meet rising data center demands. By purchasing energy from multiple SMRs, Google aims to send a strong market signal while supporting long-term commercialization.
According to CNBC, senior director for energy and climate at Google, Michael Terrell, said on a call with reporters that "we believe that nuclear energy has a critical role to play in supporting our clean growth and helping to deliver on the progress of AI."
"The grid needs these kinds of clean, reliable sources of energy that can support the build out of these technologies. … We feel like nuclear can play an important role in helping to meet our demand, and helping meet our demand cleanly, in a way that's more around the clock."
Only three SMRs are operational worldwide currently, none in the U.S.... but that's going to change.
SMRs offer a cheaper, faster alternative to traditional reactors. Kairos Power, backed by the Department of Energy, is building a demonstration reactor in Tennessee. Google expects the first reactor online by 2030, adding 500 megawatts by 2035.
"It is an incredibly promising bet, and one that, you know, if we can get these projects to scale and then scale globally, will deliver enormous benefits to communities and power grids around the world," Terrell said of backing nuclear power companies.
The news came just hours after we pointed out the short interest in one of our favorite SMR names, Sam Altman-backed Oklo, on the rise. Oklo has targeted its first SMRs to be online by 2027, three years ahead of Kairos' proposed timeline.
Today's news should not come as a surprise: less than a week ago we quoted Amanda Peterson Corio, global head of data center energy at Google, who said that “in the US, in highly regulated markets where we don’t have the opportunity to directly purchase power, we are working with our utility partners and the generators to come together to figure out how we can bring these new technologies — nuclear may be one of them — to the grid."
Separately, we ALSO wrote at the beginning of this month that the U.S. had closed on a $1.5 billion loan to resurrect Holtec's Palisades Nuclear Plant. The report at the time said that the Biden administration aims to triple U.S. nuclear power capacity as demand rises and climate concerns grow.
Meanwhile, we recently wrote that Oklo announced it had finalized an agreement with the Department of Energy to advance the next phase of sitting at the Idaho National Lab.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has also been urging for Three Mile Island to reopen as quickly as possible. Following Microsoft's agreement to purchase power from the dormant nuclear plant, Shapiro urged regulators to prioritize the reactor's connection to the electrical grid, according to Barron’s.
The latest news out of Google provides substantial tail wind for our "Next AI Trade" which we laid out in April as our favorite long-term trade, and where we outlined various investment opportunities for powering up America, playing out.
The stellar returns of the trade in 2024 so far are just the start: as more capital is allocated to "those who provide the electricity to those who sell the picks and shovels for the next gold rush", the basket will blow away every other segment of the market, and the biggest winners will be not those who bet on the revolutionary technology that is AI, but those who backed something much more primitive: the electricity needed to power it.
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