'U.S. household energy bills shouldn't shock consumers this winter' (more than last year??)

 Natural-gas prices have fallen from a year ago

U.S. consumers won't see much of a change in the cost to heat their homes this winter compared with last winter, thanks to lower prices for energy, including natural gas, the Energy Information Administration said in its winter fuels report, released Tuesday.

Retail energy prices in the EIA's forecast are lower than they were last winter, but temperatures across much of the country are likely to be colder this year, so homes will use more energy for heating, the government agency said. "The combination of lower prices and colder weather results in relatively little change in expenditures." it said.

In its base-case forecast, the EIA expects households in the U.S. that primarily use natural gas for heat to spend an average of $602 for heating fuel this winter. That's up 1% from last winter.

Still, "there's a lot of uncertainty about the weather over an entire season - not to mention uncertainty over commodity prices," EIA administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a statement.

The agency's report also included cost forecasts in the event that the weather is warmer or colder than expected.

If winter is 10% colder than its base case, the EIA expects to see average U.S. fuel expenditures of $637 for households primarily using natural gas. That's up 7% from last winter. A 10% warmer forecast would lead to an average expenditure of $583, or 2% less than last winter.

"Natural-gas-heated homes in the West have the largest forecast decrease in spending this winter because we expect natural-gas prices will fall the most from last winter in that region," the EIA said. In the West, households that primarily use natural gas as their heating fuel may see an average cost of $573 this winter under the agency's base-case scenario, down 6% from last winter.

On Tuesday, natural gas for November delivery (NG00) (NGX24) settled at $2.73 per million British thermal units, with prices based on the most active contracts down about 18% from a year ago, FactSet data show.

The EIA expects that the 45% of U.S. homes that primarily heat with natural gas to consume 48 thousand cubic feet from November through March, which is 5% more than last winter.

Even with increased consumption, the U.S. average price for natural gas for residential consumers in the agency's forecast is 4% less than last winter, resulting in "negligible change in winter bills for natural gas in our base case," it said.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20241008128/us-household-energy-bills-shouldnt-shock-consumers-this-winter