'Surging diabetes rate underscores vast opportunity in weight-loss drugs'

 Diabetes rates have more than quadrupled since 1990, according to a new analysis in the Lancet on World Diabetes Day

The number of adults diagnosed with diabetes has more than quadrupled since 1990 and now stands above 800 million, according to new data released in The Lancet on World Diabetes Day.

The data was part of an analysis conducted by the NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, a network of more than 1,500 researchers around the world, with the backing of the World Health Organization.

"We have seen an alarming rise in diabetes over the past three decades, which reflects the increase in obesity, compounded by the impacts of the marketing of unhealthy food, a lack of physical activity and economic hardship," said WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

"To bring the global diabetes epidemic under control, countries must urgently take action. This starts with enacting policies that support healthy diets and physical activity, and, most importantly, health systems that provide prevention, early detection and treatment."

In 1990, just 7% of the global adult population had diabetes, but that number had climbed to 14% by 2022. The fast rate of growth underscores the enormous opportunity for the new class of diabetes and obesity treatments called GLP-1, where GLP stands for glucagon-like peptide. The treatment works by mimicking the gut hormone that can help control blood-sugar levels and reduce appetite.

The numbers are highest in low- and middle-income countries, where treatment access is still too low, said the WHO. That has created stark inequality-some 450 million adults aged 30 and older, or about 59% of the adult diabetes population, remain untreated. That's a 3.5-fold increase since 1990. About 90% of that group live in low- and middle-income countries.

Geographically, the WHO's South-East Asia and Eastern Mediterranean regions, together with the African region, have the lowest rates of treatment with fewer than four in 10 adults taking glucose-lowering medicine.

Against that background, the WHO is launching a new global monitoring framework on diabetes, which will offer guidance to leaders on measuring, and evaluating diabetes prevention and care.

"By tracking key indicators such as glycemic control, hypertension and access to essential medicines, countries can improve targeted interventions and policy initiatives," the agency said in a statement.

In 2022, the WHO set the goal of ensuring the 80% of diabetes patients have good glycemic control by 2030.

The Lancet data was based on 1108 population-representative studies with 141 million participants aged 18 years and older with measurements of fasting glucose and glycated hemoglobin and information on diabetes treatment.

In the U.S., more than 38 million children and adults have diabetes, a disease that cost more than $412.9 billion in healthcare costs in 2022, up from $327 in billion, according to the American Diabetes Association.

Meanwhile, about 12% of U.S. adults have used GLP-1 drugs, according to a KFF poll involving about 1,500 respondents, as reported by JAMA.

The market is dominated by Eli Lilly & Co. Inc. (LLY) and Denmark's Novo Nordisk (NVO) (DK:NOVO.B). Lilly is the maker of mounjaro, while Novo Nordisk makes ozempic and wegovy.

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20241114277/surging-diabetes-rate-underscores-vast-opportunity-in-weight-loss-drugs