Novo Nordisk's top-line efficacy results for its experimental obesity drug, CagriSema, were just released, missing the pharma's estimate of 25% weight loss over 68 weeks, coming in at just 22.7%. This sent shares of Novo in Europe crashing the most on record.
The results:
When evaluating the effects of treatment if all people adhered to treatment1, people treated with CagriSema achieved a superior weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks compared to a reduction of 11.8% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg, 16.1% with semaglutide 2.4 mg and 2.3% with placebo alone. In addition, 40.4% of patients who received CagriSema reached a weight loss of 25% or more after 68 weeks, compared to 6.0% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg, 16.2% with semaglutide 2.4 mg, and 0.9% with placebo.
Novo previously forecasted the experimental obesity drug would help patients achieve at least 25% weight loss.
Meanwhile, Goldman's James Quigley was most bullish on the street, with an estimated 27-28% weight loss.
After the results were published, Quigley shared his thoughts about the results with clients:
"While these weight loss data are lower than hoped in the market, we still believe that the product will be filed and approved by the FDA, and while there is no clear differentiation vs. Zepbound, Novo's position will move from one where they had a clearly inferior product in Wegovy to one that is on par with Zepbound in terms of weight loss. That said, while we understand the market disappointment with the data and expect investor sentiment to remain low on Novo into the new year, ultimately we see the share price move as overdone and with CagriSema offering another high efficacy option, it could still protect part of the longer term obesity franchise."
To start the week, we penned a note telling readers about Novo's "final big market cap event of the year" ahead of top-line efficacy results ...
The dismal results led Novo shares to crash as much as 29% in Europe—the most on record.
This wiped out around $120 billion in market capitalization.
Results also sparked volatility with other weight-loss drug developers in Europe and the US (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Shares of smaller weight-loss drug developers also drop in Europe: Zealand Pharma -21%, Gubra -23%
Medical packaging companies also fall: Gerresheimer -14%, Bachem -6.5%
In US premarket trading, shares of obesity-drug rivals gain: Eli Lilly +12%, Viking Therapeutics +12%
Novo bulls received their Christmas gift early: coal.
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