Higher Biopharma M&A Activity ‘Almost Inevitable’ in 2025, Viking Top Candidate: Analysts

Seeking Alpha analyst Terry Chrisomalis regards Viking Therapeutics as the most attractive M&A candidate in 2025, bolstered by its strong obesity candidate VK2735 and largely de-risked MASH therapy VK2809.

Analysts are expecting mergers and acquisitions to pick up modestly in 2025—a sign of the industry’s slow recovery from its crash in 2023—with a handful of biotechs emerging as prime purchase picks for their bigger counterparts.

California-based Viking Therapeutics appears to lead the list of promising players that could attract serious M&A dollars from Big Pharma, according to several analysts. In an interview over the weekend, Seeking Alpha’s Terry Chrisomalis pointed to the biotech’s “proven drug development model” and “solid obesity drug pipeline.”

Viking’s pipeline is anchored by its lead candidate VK2735, a dual agonist of the GLP-1 and GIP receptors that it is developing both as a subcutaneous and oral therapy for obesity. In November 2024, the biotech released a Phase I readout for the drug’s pill formulation, touting up to 6.8% placebo-adjusted weight loss after 28 days of daily 100-mg doses. A few months earlier, in February 2024, Viking also unveiled Phase II data for the subcutaneous version of VK2735, highlighting a 14.7% drop in body weight after 13 weeks of treatment with a 15-mg injection.

Viking was scheduled to start a Phase II trial for oral VK2735 before the end of 2024, according to Chrisomalis, but “For a Phase 3 study for the injectable version of VK2735 targeting patients with obesity, it needs to meet with the FDA first to discuss such advancement.”

Aside from obesity, Viking’s pipeline also holds promise in metabolic-dysfunction associated steatohepatitis (MASH)—another hot indication for biopharma. The biotech is advancing VK2809, a selective thyroid hormone beta receptor (TRβ) agonist that showed a “best-in-class profile” at the 75th The Liver Meeting of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases in November 2024.

Viking at the time presented Phase IIb data for VK2809, demonstrating a 37% to 55% mean decrease in liver fat in patients with biopsy-confirmed MASH after 52 weeks of follow-up. The response rate for VK2809—defined as at least a 30% drop in liver fat—ran from 64% to 88%.

According to Chrisomalis, VK2809’s TRβ-targeting activity has “the very same mechanism of action” as Madrigal Pharmaceuticals’ Rezdiffra, a treatment that has already been approved by the FDA for MASH. “It is my belief that an acquisition of this alone is a reduced risk event for any Big Pharma company wanting to acquire it,” Chrisomalis said of Viking’s MASH program.

Beyond Viking, Seeking Alpha analyst Edmund Ingham also named Madrigal as a top M&A candidate for 2025, as well as Summit Therapeutics with its potential Keytruda killer ivonescimab, and Sarepta Therapeutics with its Duchenne muscular dystrophy program.

These biotechs are well-positioned to take advantage of the coming year, which pharma analyst firm Evaluate expects will see “an increase in dealmaking,” according to its 2025 preview report published last week.

Many observers anticipate the incoming Trump administration—which is expected to be more hands-off and industry-friendly than the Biden administration—to be “good news” for biopharma, according to Evaluate. Still, “what exactly might transpire at the new Trump administration is unclear,” the firm cautioned. What is certain is the need for many big players to expand and deepen their pipelines.

“This makes an M&A uptick [in 2025] almost inevitable,” Evaluate noted.

https://www.biospace.com/business/higher-biopharma-m-a-activity-almost-inevitable-in-2025-with-viking-as-top-candidate-analysts