All Over But the Shouting

 by John Hinderaker

France’s President Emmanuel Macron is in Washington, and did a joint press conference with President Trump today, on the Russia-Ukraine war. News reports on the press conference fall along predictably partisan lines. This Sky News report is objective, if only because it is so brief:

A half-turn, in a carefully choreographed dance, the US leader asserting optimism, the French one, much more cautious in response.

President Trump repeated his view that the war in Ukraine would soon end.

He signalled a dramatic shift by Russia, suggesting President Putin might accept the deployment of European peacekeepers on the ground in Ukraine.

But Emmanuel Macron cautioned that any peace agreement must respect Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Trump claimed Ukraine’s president would be in Washington soon, to sign a deal granting the US access to rare earth minerals to offset US war aid.

Again, the French president gently stressed the need for security guarantees.

I think that the way this will play out is pretty obvious:

1) The war has been a disaster for both Russia and Ukraine. Both countries badly want it to end. Vladimir Putin needs it to end in a way that doesn’t wind up with him being hung from a lamppost.

2) If the United States had had a functioning president three years ago, the war would not have begun. If we had had a functioning president for the last two years, it would have been brought to an end before now.

3) Russia and Ukraine need President Trump to manage an end to the conflict. Trump will do that successfully, but he won’t be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.

4) There will be a ceasefire, very soon. That will be followed rapidly by a peace treaty.

5) The terms on which the war will end are clear: Russia will keep a slice of eastern Ukraine pretty much equal to what it now occupies. In return, Russia will promise not to invade again.

6) There will be a peacekeeping force consisting of European troops. They will not be on the front line–God forbid!–but will nevertheless deter future Russian attacks, which Russia has no intention of launching.

7) Ukraine will give the U.S. mineral concessions of a value sufficient to repay some of the cost that our taxpayers have incurred in supporting that country. The details will be negotiated, but the final amounts will be substantial.

Happily, with Donald Trump negotiating on behalf of the United States, we can be sure that American taxpayers will not be taken to the cleaners.

The diplomatic dance will continue, but that is what is going to happen.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/02/all-over-but-the-shouting.php