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Monday, June 16, 2025

Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint, mainly for Saudis

 Based on tanker tracking data published by Vortexa, Saudi Arabia moves more crude oil and condensate through the Strait of Hormuz than any other country. In 2024, exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia accounted for 38% of total Hormuz crude flows (5.5 million b/d).

Alternative routes
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some infrastructure in place that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which may somewhat mitigate any transit disruptions through the strait. The pipelines do not typically operate at full capacity, and we estimate that about 2.6 million b/d of capacity from the Saudi and UAE pipelines could be available to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a supply disruption.

Saudi Aramco operates the 5 million-b/d East-West crude oil pipeline, which runs from the Abqaiq oil processing center near the Persian Gulf to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Aramco temporarily expanded the pipeline’s capacity to 7.0 million b/d in 2019 when it converted some natural gas liquids pipelines to accept crude oil. In 2024, Saudi Arabia pumped more crude oil through the East-West pipeline to avoid the shipping disruptions around the Bab al-Mandeb.

The UAE also operates a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. This 1.8 million-b/d pipeline links onshore oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal in the Gulf of Oman. In 2024, crude oil and condensate volumes originating in the UAE and traversing Hormuz were 0.4 million b/d less than in 2022 because refinery upgrades allowed more heavy crude oil to be refined locally. These upgrades also allowed the UAE to increase exports of its lighter crude oil grades, and use of the pipeline to the Fujairah export terminal increased. Increased use of the pipeline for day-to-day operations has limited the excess capacity available to reroute additional volumes around the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran inaugurated the Goreh-Jask pipeline and the Jask export terminal on the Gulf of Oman (avoiding the Strait of Hormuz) with a single export cargo in July 2021. The pipeline’s effective capacity remains around 300,000 b/d. However, during the summer of 2024 Iran exported less than 70,000 b/d from ports (Bandar-e-Jask and Kooh Mobarak) using the Goreh-Jask pipeline and stopped loading cargoes after September 2024.

Destination markets
We estimate that 84% of the crude oil and condensate and 83% of the liquefied natural gas that moved through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets in 2024. China, India, Japan, and South Korea were the top destinations for crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz to Asia, accounting for a combined 69% of all Hormuz crude oil and condensate flows in 2024. These markets would likely be most affected by supply disruptions at Hormuz.

volume of crude oil and condensate transported through the Strait of Hormuz
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Vortexa tanker tracking
Note: 1Q25=first quarter of 2025

In 2024, the United States imported about 0.5 million b/d of crude oil and condensate from Persian Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for about 7% of total U.S. crude oil and condensate imports and 2% of U.S. petroleum liquids consumption. In 2024, U.S. crude oil imports from countries in the Persian Gulf were at the lowest level in nearly 40 years as domestic production and imports from Canada have increased.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php

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