A long-term shift in U.S. calorie consumption, spurred by rising use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, could reduce packaged food and beverage volumes by more than 10%, Bank of America said.
Analysts said the widespread adoption of GLP-1 therapies, such as Ozempic and Wegovy, is driving a “caloric reset” that suppresses appetite and reduces consumer preference for salty, sweet and high-fat foods.
That shift poses a structural risk to processed and convenience food makers, particularly in categories like confectionery, bakery and flavored beverages.
“We believe it could drive -30-40% caloric reduction for obese persons and cumulative LT volume declines of more than -10% for Food & Beverage, with the largest impacts on center store snacking, convenient, and indulgent occasions,” BofA wrote.
While only 2–3% of U.S. adults currently use GLP-1s, the bank expects adoption could reach high single digits in five years, with long-term potential near 35%, comparable to statin use, given rising prescriptions, future oral versions, and broader insurance coverage.
Volume losses would likely be gradual, about 1–2% annually, but could accelerate as drug use scales, the note said.
Categories with the highest exposure include Hershey, Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Smucker, and Hostess-parent Flowers Foods (NYSE:FLO), due to their sugar and fat content. Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP) was cited for its exposure in beverages.
In contrast, companies with higher fiber or protein content in their portfolios, such as Conagra and General Mills (NYSE:GIS), are better positioned, while others may be forced to reformulate products or pivot through acquisitions.
The note flagged that adapting to changing dietary trends could be costly, especially as GLP-1 users seek more nutrient-dense, satiating foods.
Manufacturers may face growing pressure to reshape portfolios faster than current bolt-on M&A strategies suggest, according to the analysts.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.