The year 2025 is off to the same start, with $1bn in losses already in Q1. This leaves just $8bn in the coffers. If we subtract this from the market capitalization of $10bn and the enterprise value of $2bn, we can see that there are few promising prospects for the treatments currently being developed.

It is remarkable that the value of Moderna's pipeline—which, in addition to its COVID-19 vaccines, includes two vaccines that are expected to be commercially available very soon, the first against respiratory syncytial virus and the second against seasonal influenza—represents only half of the group's R&D budget for six months, which shows the market's lack of enthusiasm.

Shareholders who were betting on the post-COVID era are now left holding the bag. At $26, the share price has fallen 17-fold since its 2021 peaks. In this context, the $5bn spent on share buybacks between 2021 and 2023 at much higher prices seems highly ill-advised; it is fortunate that more was not thrown down the drain.

When Moderna was at the height of its glory, MarketScreener pointed to the alarming sales of shares on the market by members of its management team—a sign that betrayed their lack of confidence in the future. There has been no change in this regard for the time being, although CEO Stéphane Bancel, who still holds 5.5 million shares, acquired an additional 160,000 shares earlier this year at a price of $31.

However, this $5m transaction will be largely overlooked, especially when compared to the $1.1bn before tax that he earned from his share sales between 2020 and 2023. In this regard, his timing was excellent—much better, in any case, than the group's share buybacks.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MODERNA-INC-47437573/news/Moderna-struggles-to-convince-the-market-50306580/