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Saturday, June 21, 2025

'MORE investor reaction to Iran strike'

SAUL KAVONIC, SENIOR ENERGY ANALYST, MST MARQUEE, SYDNEY:

"This escalation could add enough pressure on Iran to see Iran back down and accept a deal that de-escalates the conflict and brings down oil prices with it.
"The more likely scenario: This US attack could see a conflagration of the conflict to include Iran responding by targeting regional American interests that could include gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq or harrassing passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days, but this could set us on a path towards $100 oil if Iran respond as they have previously threatened too. The information warfare that appears designed to have caught Iran off guard has also caught oil markets off guard to a degree."
RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, SINGAPORE:
"The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and introduces a new phase of geopolitical risk, with direct U.S. involvement likely to prolong tensions in the region.
"For Asian markets, the key vulnerability lies in their sensitivity to higher energy prices. A protracted conflict raises the risk of supply disruptions, which could feed into inflationary pressures and weigh on growth expectations across the region.
"With the prospects of a swift resolution now diminished, investors are likely to reprice risk across markets. I expect to see a flight to safety, with the USD bid and broad-based weakness across Asian risk assets as markets assess the potential fallout from sustained geopolitical instability and elevated oil prices."
ALEX MORRIS, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, F/M INVESTMENTS, WASHINGTON DC:
Morris expects crude oil will spike to $80 or more when it resumes trading.
"That's the next stop as a knee-jerk reaction. I think that's the reason this happened on a Saturday and not a Sunday. There's a lot more that is going to happen over the next 24 hours"
ERIC BEYRICH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, SOUND INCOME STRATEGIES, LARCHMONT, NEW YORK:
"If there is nuclear fallout – all bets are off. The regime is going to conclude that it has lost everything and will do all kinds of crazy things, like commissioning terrorist attacks on embassies."
CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, NEW YORK:
“There is a plethora of potential ramifications but it appears as if the strikes were targeted, discreet, and discriminating. If so, and if the oil exporting capacity of Iran has not been compromised, then the economic fallout should be contained.
"A short-term pop in oil prices will be viewed by the Fed less as a factor that increases input costs and feeds through to inflation than it will be as a tax on consumers that suppresses demand. I wouldn't expect this to factor into the Fed's decision calculus unless the spike in oil prices is sustained."
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/view-investors-react-us-attack-iran-nuclear-sites-2025-06-22/

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