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Wednesday, June 25, 2025

US spend seen at $8.6 trillion on healthcare by 2033: CMS

 CMS projects national healthcare spending to reach $5.6 trillion this year amid continued strong healthcare utilization growth, and then climb to $8.6 trillion by 2033.

The findings are from the agency’s analysis released June 25 and will also appear in the policy journal Health Affairs next month.

Five things to know: 

1. National health spending is projected to have grown 8.2% in 2024, according to CMS. This includes Medicare expenditures, which were expected to have grown 8.3% in 2024, while Medicaid spending growth was projected to have grown 6.2%, compared with 7.9% in 2023. 

2. National health spending is projected to increase 7.1% in 2025, according to CMS, while national health spending is expected to grow 5.4% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027. 

CMS said the increases  are partly because of a decrease in the share of the population with health insurance related to the expiration of temporarily enhanced ACA premium tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and due to an anticipated slowdown in utilization growth. 

3. From 2024 to 2033, CMS projects national health spending to grow by an average of 5.8% per year, outpacing the 4.3% average annual growth for GDP for that period.

4. CMS expects the health share of GDP to reach 20.3% by 2033 (up from 17.6% in 2023).

5. “Although the projections presented here reflect current law, future legislative and regulatory health policy changes could have a significant impact on the projections of health coverage, health spending trends, and related cost-sharing requirements, and they thus could ultimately affect the health share of GDP by 2033,” CMS concluded.

Read more about the study here.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/us-to-spend-8-6-trillion-on-healthcare-by-2033-cms/

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