US Sees 10 Million Barrels Via Hormuz Sapping Iran Oil Leverage

 Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has surged over the past few weeks, with American military support helping boost oil flows to more than 10 million barrels per day, a US official said.

The increase since President Donald Trump signed an interim peace agreement with Iran represents a big jump in traffic since the war paralyzed flows. That has caught Tehran off guard, underscoring its now-limited ability to halt traffic through the corridor and helping spark recent attacks around the strait, said the official, who requested anonymity to describe internal thinking.

The Islamic Republic seized leverage by choking off the strait during the conflict, encouraging Trump to embrace a ceasefire and negotiations as dwindling crude reserves and surging energy prices made the war politically untenable. The regime has continued to insist that it will keep some control over maritime traffic, even signaling some ships may ultimately have to pay transit fees.

Even before the truce, the US took actions to weaken Tehran's control of the strait. Layers of defensive military support coordinated by US Central Command — including air power and naval forces — have given shippers greater confidence to move oil through the southern portion of the waterway closer to Oman, the official said.

The 10 million figure is broadly in line with shipping data previously reported by Bloomberg.

Navigation in the strait is hanging over indirect talks this week involving US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Qatar, where the fate of Iran's nuclear capabilities and its ability to control traffic through Hormuz are central issues.

According to the official, the US is pressing Iran to comply with the maritime provisions of the memorandum of understanding and establish a long-term agreement guaranteeing open commercial transit. The memo provides for toll-free traffic during the 60-day negotiating period and leaves its status beyond that up for discussion. Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have said that neither tolls nor maritime service fees would be unacceptable in a final deal.

Iran has not publicly accepted the US's demands for the strait.

Iran breached the US measures last week with a drone attack on a Singapore-flagged container ship. The incident set off a wave of retaliatory strikes that put the two countries' truce on shaky ground.

Trump's decision to call off more strikes and let negotiations proceed was the latest sign that he's unwilling to risk more economic pain stemming from the war. The US leader has said he doesn't want to be remembered as Herbert Hoover, who was president during the 1929 stock market crash that triggered the Great Depression.

Analysts have warned that those economic and political considerations could embolden Iran to draw out the talks, potentially sapping Trump's capability to force Tehran into key concessions. Restoring traffic through Hormuz represents a return to the status quo prior to the US and Israel launching the war, rather than a new breakthrough.

Still, the administration sees last week's attacks as evidence that Tehran is attempting to reassert control over the strait after realizing its ability to paralyze traffic is limited, according to the official.

Iran's limited capacity to monitor traffic far from its coastline has hampered its awareness of activity in the southern transit corridor, leading to a relatively late realization of the extent of the region's oil flows, the official said.

Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz handled about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, with roughly 20 million barrels of crude and fuel flowing on average per day. With at least 10 million now getting through daily, combined with 5 million via alternative routes, flows are approaching normal levels.

Even so, getting Iran to back off its desire to control the strait won't be easy. Iranian chief negotiator Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf on Tuesday told state television that sovereignty over the corridor belongs to Iran and Oman. While Oman's top diplomat has said plans for Hormuz don't entail the imposition of "transit fees," the country has told European officials some charges may be necessary, Bloomberg reported.

Shippers, oil industry officials and other stakeholders have warned that any tolls — or fees masquerading as them — are an unacceptable violation of international law that would set a dangerous precedent, potentially encouraging charges in other waterways.

Vessels continued sailing through the strait after the tit-for-tat attacks, a sign of increased confidence in the US posture and Iran's limited reach. The sustained traffic may have also been driven by expectations Iran would avoid attacks that have catastrophic, ecological consequences, the US official said.

Last week's strike on the cargo ship, for instance, damaged its bridge but caused no casualties, allowing the vessel to sail on.

https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/us-sees-10-million-barrels-162440474.html