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Monday, October 21, 2019

Vindication is sweet for Seattle Genetics

Tucatinib yields a positive result in breast cancer, vindicating Seattle Genetics’ acquisition of its originator.
Almost two years ago Seattle Genetics’ investors shrugged off the group’s $614m takeover of Cascadian Therapeutics. Today they found out that the deal had been a masterstroke. Cascadian’s lead asset, tucatinib, has scored in a pivotal breast cancer trial, setting it up for a US filing early next year.
The success makes tucatinib two for two, after early data at the Esmo congress showed its potential in Her2-amplified colorectal cancer. The findings will make painful reading for Puma investors, who had long been told that Puma’s Nerlynx was the better Her2 asset, but who have seen this drug struggle with toxicities.
Indeed, it might have seemed surprising the Seattle bought out Cascadian and not Puma (Seattle disappoints Puma bulls with Cascadian takeout, January 31, 2018). On the other hand, Puma was in hindsight overpriced; in January 2016 it was capitalised at $2.5bn, but since then has lost a staggering 93% of its value.
Primary endpoint
Tucatinib’s Her2Climb study tested the small-molecule Her2 tyrosine kinase inhibitor in subjects who had failed Herceptin, Perjeta and Kadcyla. It compared tucatinib on top of Herceptin and capecitabine, versus Herceptin and capecitabine alone.
Seattle said it met its primary endpoint, progression-free survival, cutting risk of progression by 46% (p<0.00001). Two key secondaries were also met, with risk of death cut by 34% (p=0.0048) and risk of disease progression in subjects with brain metastases at baseline reduced by 52% (p<0.00001).
Tucatinib’s selectivity for Her2 and not EGFR is claimed to give it a relatively clean safety profile, without the diarrhoea toxicity that has crippled Nerlynx, for instance. Her2Climb did show a 4.3-point elevation in occurrence of serious diarrhoea, but at 12.9% this pales into insignificance compared with Nerlynx, and prophylactic antidiarrhoeals were not needed.
Of more concern is tucatinib’s propensity to elevate liver enzymes. Grade 3 or higher elevations in AST and ALT were respectively seen in 4.5% and 5.4% of tucatinib subjects, versus 0.5% in both cases for control patients. On an analyst call the company was asked directly whether it had seen any cases of Hy’s law, but declined to comment.
Selected trials of tucatinib
Study Design Data
Mountaineer Single cohort: tucatinib + Herceptin in 40 Her2-amplified colorectal cancer subjects who had failed VEGF therapy & chemo, but were anti-Her2 naive ORR, mPFS & mOS data from 23 evaluable subjects presented at Esmo congress Sep 2019
Her2Climb Tucatinib + Herceptin + capecitabine vs Herceptin + capecitabine in 612 breast cancer subjects who had failed Herceptin, Perjeta & Kadcyla mPFS & mOS data from first 480 subjects enrolled (planned analysis) toplined Oct 2019; full data at San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium
The side effect profile reflects what was seen at Esmo: the Mountaineer trial, in Her2-amplified colorectal cancer, showed increased AST and ALT of all grades in 38.5% and 23.1% respectively, and diarrhoea in 23.1%.
That small, single-cohort trial enrolled subjects who had failed chemo but were naive to anti-Her2 therapy. In it tucatinib plus Herceptin yielded an overall remission rate, its primary efficacy measure, of 52.2%, and median PFS and overall survival of 8.1 and 18.7 months respectively.
Tucatinib is important in marking a departure from Seattle’s focus on one marketed drug, Adcetris. The sellside expects tucatinib to post 2024 sales of $268m, according to EvaluatePharma consensus, and Seattle has a separate antibody-drug conjugate, enfortumab vedotin, awaiting a US verdict for bladder cancer by March 15.
Her2 targeting is a hot topic, with Astrazeneca/Daiichi Sankyo’s ADC trastuzumab deruxtecan facing a US approval decision for Her2-positive breast cancer in the second quarter next year. However, Roche last week discontinued the phase I asset RG6148, thought to be another anti-Her2 ADC.
A separate trial, Her2Climb-02, tests tucatinib on top of Kadcyla in Her2-positive breast cancer. Tucatinib’s Esmo data helped send Seattle up 18%, and this morning the company opened up another 15%, as hopes were raised that it could soon see the approval of its first small-molecule drug – though this hinges on liver toxicity being limited.
Perhaps with the benefit of hindsight Cascadian’s former owners now think they let their company go too cheaply. But then, as recent events have shown, deals tend not to get done while assets are overpriced.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/trial-results/vindication-sweet-seattle

Bavarian Nordic’s chance to draw a line under oncology

The Danish group seizes an opportunity to focus on what it does best, but its ill-fated flirtation with oncology continues.
Today’s acquisition by Bavarian Nordic of two of Glaxosmithkline’s non-core vaccines makes a lot of sense given the two companies’ profiles: the latter is ramping up activities in high-growth areas like cancer, while the former should focus on its core competency of prophylactic vaccine development.
Surprisingly, however, Bavarian today said it would still pursue development of a “broad and deep cancer immunotherapy portfolio”. This is despite its efforts here consistently firing blanks, including the notorious failure of Prostvac in prostate cancer, and that of the follow-on asset CV301 just last week.
CV301 is an anti-Muc1 and CEA vaccine in mid-stage studies for several cancers. On Friday Bavarian revealed that one of these trials, combining CV301 with Roche’s Tecentriq in bladder cancer, had failed to meet the criteria for expanding enrolment. Tecentriq is approved as monotherapy for this condition.
Prostvac, meanwhile, crashed in pivotal development two years ago, partly owing to its poor mechanistic rationale, and partly because the standard of care in prostate cancer had changed over the course of its development. Several combination trials are continuing, presumably because it would be unethical to close them down.
Prophylactic vaccines
With such a track record Bavarian might have been expected to seize the opportunity presented by the acquisition of two of Glaxosmithkline’s prophylactic vaccines, Rabavert/Rabipure for rabies, and Encepur for tick-borne encephalitis.
These, together with Bavarian’s Jynneos, which last month got US approval for smallpox, will give the group three marketed products, and cut from five to two years the time it hopes it will take it to become profitable. Nevertheless, on an analyst call today Bavarian said its cancer immunotherapy plans remained “on track”.
The deal will cost Bavarian €301m ($336m) up front, and is backed by what it thinks the two products are capable of achieving in their key markets of Germany and the US.
Rabavert/Rabipure and Encepur are expected to bring in a combined €175m in revenue this year, and Bavarian says they are growing at low to mid, and mid to high single digits respectively. The group is banking on Ebitda margins growing from a current 30-40% to over 50% from 2025.
Plugging those figures into a spreadsheet and applying a 10% cost of capital yields an NPV of €552m. In addition to the €301m up-front fee Bavarian is on the hook for a further €495m in milestones, though without knowing precisely what these relate to it is impossible to gauge how much it will actually have to pay.
Valuing Rabavert/Rabipure and Encepur

2019 2020e
2021e
2023e
2025e 2027e 2029e
Rabavert/Rabipure sales (€m)
105 109 112 120 129 138 148
Encepur sales (€m) 70 75 80 92 105 120 138
Combined EBITDA (€m) 61 46 67 74 117 129 143
NPV at 10% WACC (€m)
552




Source: Vantage Analysis based on Bavarian’s forecasts.
Unfortunately Bavarian is also providing short sellers with a neat timeline. Current cash will fund €150m of the consideration, and a €270m bridge facility is in place; next year it says it plans to carry out a €350m rights issue to replace the bridge loan – a dilutive event that would be expected to send its stock down.
Today Bavarian’s share price was off 9%. The group also has a US priority review voucher, gained along with Jynneos’s approval, and says it wants to sell this on to boost its cash balance.
Other cancer assets in its pipeline include BN-Brachyury, in trials for chordoma, and rMVA-CD40L, a high-risk project targeting CD40L. Given the failure rate of cancer vaccines investors would do well to ignore these in valuing the company.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/deals/bavarians-chance-draw-line-under-oncology

CRISPR gene editors up on promise of ‘prime editing’

CRISPR/Cas9 gene editors Editas Medicine (EDIT +3.5%), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +3.6%) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +5.6%) are in the green in response to the news that a new type of the gene-editing tool has the potential to cure ~89% of all disease-causing DNA mutations.
The new approach, called “prime editing,” enables the precise change of any of DNA’s four “letters” into any other (or delete any stretch of DNA) without the genome-scrambling cuts in the double helix, as classic CRISPR does. It also enables genetic repairs in non-dividing cells like neurons and muscle cells.
The inventing of prime editing was led by Broad Institute of MIT’s David Liu who co-founded Editas as well as looming IPO Beam Therapeutics (BEAM).
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3507348-crispr-gene-editors-promise-prime-editing

Vertex Pharma’s Trikafta to cost $311K per year

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) has established a wholesale price of $23,896 per 28-day pack of just-approved Trikafta (elexacaftor/tezacaftor and ivacaftor). The cystic fibrosis (CF) med will cost ~$311.5K per year.
Considering the earlier-than-expected FDA nod, the company has increased its 2019 CF product revenue guidance to $3.70B – 3.75B from $3.60B – 3.70B.
Shares will resume trading at 4:20 pm ET.
Update: Shares are up 1% on resumption of trade.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3507453-vertex-pharmas-trikafta-cost-311k-per-year

Vertex Pharma +4.1% on Trikafta approval

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) has legged up to a session high today, +4.1%, after receiving FDA approval for its Trikafta therapy for patients with the most common cystic fibrosis mutation.
Trikafta (elexacaftor/ivacaftor/tezacaftor) is the first triple combination therapy available for that indication.
It’s approved for patients 12 and up with cystic fibrosis who have at least one F508del mutation in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene — estimated to represent 90% of the cystic fibrosis population.
Updated 3:01 p.m.: Vertex was halted at 2:59 p.m. for news pending, up 4.4%.
Update: Trading will resume at 4:20 pm ET.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3507415-vertex-pharma-plus-4_1-percent-trikafta-approval

Teva off highs on conflicting opinions on broad opioid settlement

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA +6.6%) is up on more than triple normal volume, but has retraced 10% from its intraday high of $8.95 on reports that plaintiff attorneys are “not on board” with its announced global settlement framework.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3507423-teva-highs-conflicting-opinions-broad-opioid-settlement

J&J to test whether talc product with asbestos is counterfeit

Johnson & Johnson has been fighting a rearguard action against claims its talc products contain harmful asbestos for years, and has been rocked by an FDA study which found “sub-trace” levels of the substance in a Baby Powder product.
The company has kicked off a voluntary recall of one lot of its Baby Powder bottles produced and shipped in the US last year, whilst also launching an investigation into the whether the offending product is genuine or counterfeit.
People who have purchased bottle of Johnson’s Baby Powder with the lot number 22318RB, a production run which included 33,000 bottles, are advised to discontinue using the product and can contact the company for a refund.
Testing by the US regulator found levels of chrysotile asbestos contamination in samples from a bottle purchased online, according to J&J, which says it is also investigating whether the product was unsealed and may have been tampered with.
It also said that testing by the FDA as recently as a month ago found no asbestos in its talc products. The latest test on the online-bought product found an asbestos level of 0.00002 per cent, while a second Baby Powder sample from a different lot tested negative for asbestos.
The FDA said it stands by its tests, pointing out that during talc mining “if…sites are not selected carefully and steps are not taken to purify the talc ore sufficiently, the talc may be contaminated with asbestos.”
Asbestos is a known carcinogen that has been linked to mesothelioma, and aggressive form of lung cancer, and J&J has been hit by a number of lawsuits over the years claiming that its talc products were responsible for cancer.
Last year it was ordered to pay $417m to one plaintiff who blamed it for her cervical cancer, but a few months ago won the right to a retrial on appeal.
The talc used in J&J’s products is sourced from mines in China by Imerys Talc America, a subsidiary of French company Imerys SA that is also a defendant in some of the talc litigation that it still ongoing in the US.
https://www.securingindustry.com/cosmetics-and-personal-care/j-j-to-test-whether-talc-product-with-asbestos-is-counterfeit/s106/a10898/#.Xa3hfWYpDIV