More evidence is emerging that coronavirus infections are being
spread by people who have no clear symptoms, complicating efforts to
gain control of the pandemic.
A study conducted by researchers in Singapore and published by the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wednesday is the latest
to estimate that around 10% of new coronavirus infections may be sparked
by people who were infected with the virus but not experiencing symptoms.
In response to recent studies, the CDC changed how it was defining the risk of infection
for Americans. The agency’s new guidance, also released Wednesday,
targets people who have no symptoms but were exposed to persons with
known or suspected infections. It essentially says that anyone may be a
considered a carrier, whether they have symptoms or not.
That reinforces the importance of social distancing and other measures designed to stop the spread, experts said.
“You have to really be proactive about reducing contacts between
people who seem perfectly healthy,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, a
University of Texas at Austin researcher who has studied coronavirus
transmission in different countries.
The new study focused on 243 cases of coronavirus reported in
Singapore from mid-January through mid-March, including 157 among people
who hadn’t traveled.
Researchers found that so-called pre-symptomatic people triggered
infections in seven different clusters of disease, accounting for about
6% of the locally-acquired cases.
An earlier study in Hubei province, China, where the virus was first
identified, suggested that more than 10% of transmissions could have
occurred before patients spreading the virus ever exhibited symptoms.
Researchers are also looking into the possibility that additional
cases are triggered by “asymptomatic” people who are infected but never
develop clear-cut symptoms, and “post-symptomatic” people who got sick,
appear to be recovered, but may still be contagious.
It remains unclear how many new infections are caused by each type of
these potential spreaders, said Meyers, who was not involved in the
Singapore study but was part of an earlier one focused on China.
CDC officials say they’ve been researching asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infections, but the studies are not complete.
In the initial months of the pandemic, health officials
based their response on the belief that most of the spread came from
people who were sneezing or coughing droplets that contained the virus.
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
U.S. starts enhanced measures to disrupt illegal drugs supply: coronavirus briefing
The U.S. is deploying military resources to
prevent drug traffickers from taking advantage of the coronavirus
pandemic for their own gain, President Trump said at the coronavirus
task force briefing.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper said the Department
of Defense is starting enhanced narcotics operations to further disrupt
the flow of illicit drugs into the U.S., including the movement of ships
and surveillance aircraft to Southern Command.
We must “remain vigilant to many other threats” to the country while we’re combating the virus, Esper said.
Update 5:56 PM ET: When asked
about whether China under-reported its cases of COVID-19, National
Security Adviser Robert O’Brien said there’s no way to confirm the
numbers from China.
5:58 PM: “The relationship is
very good” with China and President Xi, Trump said. China’s numbers,
though, seem to be “on the light side,” he said.
6:02 PM: Trump said the U.S. just ordered a lot of hospital gowns from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and wants Walmart to ship them directly to where they’re needed.
6:10 PM: “There’s a narrative”
that the U.S. military would have to shut down to deal with the
coronavirus, Esper said. That’s not going to happen, he said. “We have a
mission to protect the United States and its people.”
6:12 PM: “I think we have 11 companies making ventilators right now,” Trump said.
6:15 PM: The administration is
looking “very seriously” at building two new hospital ships, or possibly
renovating an existing vessel into a hospital ship, Trump said.
In the U.S., there are 206,207 confirmed cases of
COVID-19 and 4,542 deaths,according to Johns Hopkins University ;
globally, there are 921,924 cases of COVID-19 confirmed and 46,252
deaths.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3557637-u-s-starts-enhanced-measures-to-disrupt-supply-of-illegal-drugs-coronavirus-briefing
AI tool finds 3 coronavirus signs that often lead to a severe case
The novel coronavirus outbreak is far from being under control, with
COVID-19 ravaging several countries at the moment. The US alone has
accounted for nearly 175,000 cases
of the more than 818,000 cases worldwide at the time of this writing.
Italy is topping the casualty list with over 11,500 deaths and a
fatality rate of 11.39%. Social distancing measures and good hygiene
habits should significantly flatten the curve, but the results won’t be
seen for several more weeks. The lower the curve, the less crowded the
hospitals will be. That way, the severe COVID-19 cases will have a
better chance of surviving the disease, which still lacks an effective
treatment or vaccine.
Several such drugs are in testing, with some of them showing promise in limited trials. Plenty of vaccines are in the works as well, with at least two trials already underway. But there might be another untapped resource that could help doctors create therapies that could assist critical COVID-19 patients: Artificial intelligence. A new study shows that AI has been able to highlight three COVID-19 symptoms that are indicative of severe COVID-19 complications. Interestingly enough, it’s not the most common coronavirus symptoms that signal rapid deterioration after infection. If the discovery can be scaled up to more patients, it could potentially save more lives in the months ahead.
You’ve heard it a hundred times before, but COVID-19 has no universal symptoms. If you’re experiencing a fever, coughing and shortness of breath, you might be infected. But first, you have to rule out the flu. Other common symptoms may include throat pain and fatigue. Also, doctors observed that some patients reported a loss of smell and taste, which is the only COVID-19 symptom that really stands out. But many people who contract the virus will not show any symptoms at all, or at worst will simply experience mild discomfort.
According to a new study, only one of these symptoms can be indicative of severe disease, but only when combined with two other signs which require hospitalization. Per AFP, researchers from the US and China used AI to analyze data from 53 coronavirus patients across two hospitals in Wenzhou, China.
The algorithms discovered three changes in the body that precipitate severe illness: Body aches, levels of enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and hemoglobin levels. ALT is a liver enzyme that’s tested to measure liver function and diagnose liver failure. Hemoglobin testing is part of the standard blood work you get when admitted to the hospital.
The AI figured out these three features were the most accurate at predicting a severe COVID-19 case. The algorithm showed a 70 percent-80 percent accuracy at predicting the risk of acute respiratory disease syndrome (ARDS). ARDS is the COVID-19 complication that fills the lungs with fluid and kills some 50 percent of patients who get it.
Other symptoms, including particular patterns in lung imaging, fever and strong immune responses, were not useful at predicting whether a mild case could worsen to ARDS:
The team is looking to further refine the data and the AI tool might be ready to deploy sometime in April. The full study is available in Computers, Materials & Continua.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/ai-tool-finds-3-coronavirus-signs-that-often-lead-to-a-severe-case/
Several such drugs are in testing, with some of them showing promise in limited trials. Plenty of vaccines are in the works as well, with at least two trials already underway. But there might be another untapped resource that could help doctors create therapies that could assist critical COVID-19 patients: Artificial intelligence. A new study shows that AI has been able to highlight three COVID-19 symptoms that are indicative of severe COVID-19 complications. Interestingly enough, it’s not the most common coronavirus symptoms that signal rapid deterioration after infection. If the discovery can be scaled up to more patients, it could potentially save more lives in the months ahead.
You’ve heard it a hundred times before, but COVID-19 has no universal symptoms. If you’re experiencing a fever, coughing and shortness of breath, you might be infected. But first, you have to rule out the flu. Other common symptoms may include throat pain and fatigue. Also, doctors observed that some patients reported a loss of smell and taste, which is the only COVID-19 symptom that really stands out. But many people who contract the virus will not show any symptoms at all, or at worst will simply experience mild discomfort.
According to a new study, only one of these symptoms can be indicative of severe disease, but only when combined with two other signs which require hospitalization. Per AFP, researchers from the US and China used AI to analyze data from 53 coronavirus patients across two hospitals in Wenzhou, China.
The algorithms discovered three changes in the body that precipitate severe illness: Body aches, levels of enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and hemoglobin levels. ALT is a liver enzyme that’s tested to measure liver function and diagnose liver failure. Hemoglobin testing is part of the standard blood work you get when admitted to the hospital.
The AI figured out these three features were the most accurate at predicting a severe COVID-19 case. The algorithm showed a 70 percent-80 percent accuracy at predicting the risk of acute respiratory disease syndrome (ARDS). ARDS is the COVID-19 complication that fills the lungs with fluid and kills some 50 percent of patients who get it.
Other symptoms, including particular patterns in lung imaging, fever and strong immune responses, were not useful at predicting whether a mild case could worsen to ARDS:
The model highlights that some pieces of clinical data may be underappreciated by clinicians, such as mild increases in ALT and hemoglobin as well as myalgias. Key characteristics predictive of diagnosis, including fever, lymphopenia, chest imaging, were not as predictive of severity. Likewise epidemiologic risks such as age and gender were not as predictive; all ARDS patients in this study were male but most males did not develop ARDS.“It’s been fascinating because a lot of the data points that the machine used to help influence its decisions were different than what a clinician would normally look at,” physician and professor at New York University’s Grossman School of Medicine Megan Coffee told AFP.
The team is looking to further refine the data and the AI tool might be ready to deploy sometime in April. The full study is available in Computers, Materials & Continua.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/ai-tool-finds-3-coronavirus-signs-that-often-lead-to-a-severe-case/
NYC map shows total cases testing positive for coronavirus by ZIP code
A new city map showing confirmed coronavirus cases based on patient address by ZIP code suggests the poorest New Yorkers are being hardest hit by the pandemic.
Wealthier parts of the city, including much of Manhattan, waterfront sections of Queens and brownstone Brooklyn, have the fewest number of coronavirus cases, according to the map released by the city Department of Health.
A stark example of the wealth gap is the Rockaway section of Queens. The richest part of the peninsula that incorporates Belle Harbor where homes sell for over $1 million has at least 112 cases while Far Rockaway with its public housing complexes has up to 947 cases.
Data scientist Michael Donnelly, who’s been crunching the city’s coronavirus numbers since the start of the outbreak, noted the new map tracks with earlier MTA turnstile data.
Those maps showed ridership plummeting in Manhattan stations in mid-March, while New Yorkers from the outer reaches of the outer boroughs continued commuting.
“Over time we start to see the effect of the fact that Manhattan and the inner zip codes of Queens and Brooklyn have a lower positive rate because they were able to bend the curve before the outer boroughs,” Donnelly said.
Neighborhoods with fewer than 200 cases — like Park Slope, Brooklyn and Greenwich Village in Manhattan — count many white-collar professionals who can telecommute as residents.
“I think the clear next step there, is if that’s true, then there’s a real socio-economic inequality, inequity in the fact that these ZIP codes, which also tend to skew lower socio-economic, are also going to be the ones who are harder hit by this pandemic,” Donnelly said.
“Broad strokes, those tend to be the wage workers, emergency service workers that are exposing themselves more and more over time,” Donnelly said.
Many front-line workers, from grocery store clerks to EMTs, live in the outer boroughs. Their jobs require them to use the subways while the majority of New Yorkers stay home.
Neighborhoods with high poverty like Mott Haven in The Bronx and East New York in Brooklyn have as many as 947 cases compared to Park Slope and Greenwich Village’s 200 cases.
The map doesn’t always track to income. More exclusive enclaves like Williamsburg, Brooklyn also have up to 947 cases, likely because of a cluster among the area’s Orthodox Jewish population.
On Staten Island, solidly middle class sections like Heartland Village and Annadale are the hardest hit — potentially due to the concentration of first responders who live there.
Another version of the map showing percent of patients testing positive for COVID-19 by zip code was flawed because it was a depiction of which neighborhoods had the most access to testing, not the prevalence of the disease.
The overall impact of COVID-19 on the city remains unknown. Only 96,528 New Yorkers out of a population of 8.6 million have been tested. Of those 44,915 have tested positive.
The maps use slightly outdated data based on 38,936 positive cases.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/nyc-map-shows-percentage-of-patients-with-coronavirus-by-zip-code/
Arena Pharma announces encouraging data on controlled-release etrasimod
Arena Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARNA) is stoked over topline data from a Phase 1 clinical trial evaluating controlled-release (CR) delivery profiles of lead drug etrasimod.
Results showed that CR delivery enabled more than a
75% reduction in average heart rate effect during the 4-hour monitoring
period. Heart rate slowed by low single digits from baseline with no
titration. Over 24 hours, the etrasimod CR heart rate was reduced or
similar to etrasimod.
The company intends to rapidly develop the CR formulation and integrate it into multiple clinical programs.
Management will host a conference call today at 4:30 pm to discuss the data.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3557468-arena-pharma-announces-encouraging-data-on-controlled-release-etrasimodCryoLife withdraws guidance amid COVID-19
Citing uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic, CryoLife (NYSE:CRY) has withdrawn its 2020 guidance, although it expects Q1’s top line to be ~$65.5M, a bit shy of its previous outlook of $67M – 69M.
As a precautionary measure, it borrowed the entire
available amount under its $30M credit revolver. As of the end of
March, it had over $60M in cash and equivalents.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3557547-cryolife-withdraws-guidance-amid-covidminus-19Coronavirus pandemic issues delay key Eiger BioPharma study
Citing COVID-19 disruptions, Eiger BioPharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:EIGR) announces that enrollment in its Phase 3 D-LIVR
study evaluating the combination of lonafarnib and ritonavir with or
without PEGylated interferon-alfa-2a in patients with chronic hepatitis D
virus (HDV) infection will not be completed until sometime in 2021. It
says it has enough product to complete the trial.
It is also supplying Peginterferon Lambda and
helping with protocol design in multiple studies in COVID-19 patients.
Preclinical results were apparently encouraging, demonstrating “potent”
antiviral effects against influenza, SARS coronavirus, rotavirus,
norovirus, and reovirus.
Shares up 6% after hours.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3557537-coronavirus-pandemic-issues-delay-key-eiger-biopharma-study
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