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Monday, February 1, 2021

Oppenheimer Downgrades Invitae to Perform Rating

  Investment bank Oppenheimer on Monday downgraded Invitae to a Perform rating, seeking more clarity on the integration of its hereditary cancer and women's health business after the acquisition of ArcherDx last year and other segments of its business. 

Last month, Invitae conservatively projected around $450 million in revenues in 2021 after factoring in continued COVID-19 impact. However, the consensus Wall Street estimate for this year's revenues was much more optimistic at $513.7 million. 

"While we view 2021 guidance for revenues of $450M-plus as potentially conservative, in our view, opportunities for further multiple expansion may be limited contributing to increased risk of underperformance for Invitae shares," Oppenheimer analyst Kevin DeGeeter wrote in a note to investors. He wrote that while ArcherDx allows Invitae to expand into somatic cancer testing and liquid biopsy, the investment firm is unconvinced that the company has made a strong case for expanding its business with this acquisition beyond pharma collaborations. As such, Oppenheimer's 2021 revenue estimate for Invitae is $450.7 million.

Furthermore, DeGeeter noted that other diagnostics competitors in the space, such as Exact Sciences, invested in providing COVID-19 testing, which has helped grow revenues. Invitae "has generated no material COVID-19 testing revenue," DeGeeter wrote, adding that although Oppenheimer raised its price target from $48 to $51 in early January, "we do not view current valuation as an attractive entry point for new money."

Although earlier Oppenheimer supported the company's overarching strategy of providing lower cost testing to broaden access to genetic testing, DeGeeter said the investment firm wants "more transparency on segment performance and revenue impact from aggressive M&A activity."

https://www.genomeweb.com/business-news/oppenheimer-downgrades-invitae-perform-rating#.YBhU-uhKjIU


Reddit Army Declares ‘BioWar’ as Shorted Biotechs Soar

 BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. blew past a five-year high as Reddit investors rallied around a call to start a “#BioWar” on the heavily-shorted biotech that develops rare disease drugs.

The stock, which recently ended development on a Covid-19 drug, rallied as much as 36% on Monday after a poster on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum called it “the most undervalued stock in the market” while another said a brewing #BioWar was “about sticking it to the shorts in a massive way.”​

Indeed, BioCryst is a short target with about 17% of float, or $259 million, sold short, according to financial analytics firm S3 Partners. But it’s also a hedge fund pick held by the likes of Citadel and the well-known biotech outfit, Baker Bros. Advisors LP.

Before Monday’s rally, shares of BioCryst had already shrugged off the scuttling of a Covid-19 trial supported by the National Institutes of Health. The company is expected to generate less than $31 million in revenue for all of 2020.

Novavax Inc., another heavily-shorted biotech, has also garnered interest across chat forums, which could benefit funds like RA Capital Management and Perceptive Advisors, which hold stakes in the company. The stock has more than doubled in the past few trading days, albeit on key positive results for its Covid-19 vaccine candidate. The short position on Novavax stands at $1.5 billion, according to S3.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-01/reddit-army-declares-biowar-as-shorted-biotechs-soar?srnd=markets-vp

Lilly drives more access to COVID-19 antibodies with new infusion centers

 Eli Lilly's COVID-19 monoclonal antibody isn't getting as much use as it could, thanks to logistical hurdles. So the drugmaker is taking matters into its own hands.

The pharma, in partnership with local health systems, is setting up dedicated local infusion centers across its home state of Indiana, with centers already up and running in the central, northern and southern parts of the state. So far, the infusion centers have delivered antibody therapy to more than 1,700 high-risk Hoosiers with COVID-19, Lilly reported.

Lilly’s antibody treatment bamlanivimab, along with Regeneron’s combination imdevimab and casirivimab, both have FDA emergency use authorization to treat high-risk patients with mild to moderate cases of COVID-19 who aren’t hospitalized.

But that’s also part of the problem. Infusions must be prescribed and administered in a hospital or clinic setting, but patients already admitted to the hospital with more severe cases of COVID-19 aren’t eligible.


While Lilly is providing operational support to the three infusion sites in Indiana, it doesn't currently have plans to establish more pilot sites, a Lilly spokesperson said in an email. The pharma is sharing insights and lessons learned from the three sites with governments, health systems and other stakeholders.

"Our goal is to help gain learnings on how to effectively and quickly launch infusion sites and to share those learning with any hospital or health system willing to consider setting up their own sites. Lilly is proud to offer resources, available to any health system interested in setting up their own infusion site," the spokesperson said.

Regeneron applauded Lilly’s local infusion center effort. “We continuing to work with federal/state governments, healthcare systems and individual providers to raise mAb awareness and ease the administration process, but don’t have a formal program like this to announce at the moment," a spokesperson said.

The logistics surrounding the new antibody treatments have proven daunting not only for patients and healthcare providers but also for the drugmakers. Without full FDA approval, both companies are also restricted in how they can promote the drugs.

Regeneron executives, speaking at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, said last month that the slow uptake of antibody therapies is "a problem."

Society has “to do a much better job” at getting antibody treatments to patients, R&D chief George Yancopoulos said, noting that Regeneron should work more closely with the U.S. government to figure out effective ways to get its cocktail to those who need it.

One direct way both companies are offering help is with a geolocation map. Lilly and Regeneron are co-sponsors of the National Infusion Center Association’s locator, which lists COVID-19 antibody availability, along with that of other infused drug treatments.

Specific to COVID-19 antibody treatments, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) last month launched its own national online locator. Healthcare providers and patients can search for nearby healthcare facilities in the U.S. and its territories that HHS reports have received shipments of Regeneron or Lilly’s therapies.

HHS has struck deals to buy 300,000 Regeneron and 3 million Lilly treatment courses. Its latest data shows that more than 785,000 treatments of monoclonal antibodies have been shipped.


While this particular circumstance has presented its own outreach challenges, it’s not uncommon among pharma companies to facilitate access to treatment or testing through healthcare provider and patient resources.

Both Gilead and AbbVie, for instance, helmed hepatitis C testing efforts after both debuted therapies to treat the disease. AbbVie, for instance, drove a testing and education tour bus along with the American Legion across the U.S. in 2018 with free one-day test results.

Bayer, for its part, launched a “Test Your Cancer” awareness program in early 2019 to make people aware of genomic testing options for solid tumor cancer patients. Bayer and partner Lilly co-market Vitrakvi, approved to treat solid tumors with a neurotrophic receptor tyrosine kinase (NTRK) gene fusion, no matter the type.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/marketing/lilly-partners-home-state-indiana-to-drive-more-access-to-covid-19-antibody-infusions

Pfizer, Moderna hold lead; new data from J&J, Novavax show 'room for everyone' in vax market

 With Novavax and Johnson & Johnson data now in hand, the world has efficacy numbers on at least five COVID-19 vaccine programs. That's plenty for analysts to parse—and they're busy doing not only that, but also sizing up the market as the field of top players grows.

The upshot? Blockbuster sales to go around, but Pfizer and Moderna will continue to lead the pack, partly thanks to their ability to quickly deploy mRNA against new variants. And for Moderna, at least, that means almost $14 billion in projected sales just this year from one team of analysts.

The efficacy data feed into those calculations, but there are caveats, SVB Leerink analyst Mani Foroohar, M.D., wrote in a Monday note to clients. Johnson & Johnson’s headline efficacy number of 66% was lower than its mRNA competitors—and Novavax’s 89% figure—but “a direct comparison can be misleading” because of differences in trial populations and the tough new variants circulating around the world.

J&J, for instance, ran part of its phase 3 trial in South Africa, and Novavax has phase 2b from the country, where a tough new variant is circulating widely. Both companies said their vaccines' results varied country to country. The variant eluded the full effects of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in lab studies, and, now, those companies are developing boosters.

In earlier studies, the Pfizer and Moderna programs were more than 90% effective against COVID-19 infections. AstraZeneca’s program was 70% effective in a phase 3 trial, but a dosing error raised questions that prompted a follow-up phase 3 set to read out this month. In AZ’s first phase 3 trial, the vaccine was 90% effective in participants who received a half-dose followed by a full dose.


On an “apples to apples basis,” Foroohar wrote that J&J offers “a compelling one-dose profile with much more straightforward distribution and logistics than market leaders” Moderna and Pfizer, both of which are already distributing their respective mRNA shots. Those two-dose vaccines require storage at freezing temperatures, while J&J's shot can be refrigerated for up to three months.

Aside from J&J's top-line efficacy number, the vaccine was 85% effective against severe disease and offered "complete protection" against COVID-19 hospitalization and death in the massive phase 3 trial.

Meanwhile, analysts with ODDO BHF said after the latest data there’s “room for everyone” in the market, but that mRNA vaccines show “superior efficacy.” They’re projecting $13.7 billion in COVID-19 vaccine revenues for Moderna this year. Foroohar's team projects $9.5 billion in revenues for Moderna's program this year.


In the big picture, the recent results from J&J and Novavax are “heartening for humanity’s progress against the virus,” Foroohar wrote. Challenges from new variants remain, though, and there the mRNA programs hold a speed-of-development edge. The analyst predicts J&J and Novavax will start to capture global market share in the second half of this year and beyond, but, because of the strong data profile and head start for the Pfizer and Moderna programs, those companies will hold “dominant share."

As new variants circulate, the analyst’s team increased their projected "revaccination rate” for the coming years. They predict Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna will capture the “dominant revaccination share.”


Aside from the data releases late last week, AstraZeneca’s vaccine scored an authorization in Europe. The company has been entangled in a supply controversy there, and, Sunday, officials said the company would boost supply by 9 million doses to 40 million doses overall in the first quarter. That’s half of the company’s original target.

In a note Monday, SVB Leerink analyst Andrew Berens and his team projected $1.9 billion in revenues for the AstraZeneca vaccine this year, followed by $3 billion next year. The revenues will be offset by expenses, though, as the company pledged to sell its vaccine on a not-for-profit basis during the pandemic.

In addition to the research work underway in Western countries, China's Sinopharm has touted efficacy results of 79% for its vaccine program.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/while-pfizer-and-moderna-hold-lead-new-data-from-j-j-novavax-show-there-s-room-for-everyone

Valisure links 'unstable' Zantac and its ilk to carcinogen build-up, cancer risk

 When online pharmacy Valisure discovered high levels of a likely carcinogen in Zantac and its generic copycats in 2019, global recalls ensued. Contamination was one fear, but the bigger issue, as Valisure saw it, was the instability of the ranitidine molecule itself.

Now, the company has rolled out data supporting its suspicions that the once-popular heartburn med is inherently unsafe.

Valisure’s latest study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Network Open, suggests Sanofi’s Zantac and other ranitidine drugs can cause the suspected cancer agent N-Nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) to form under a range of conditions, including in the human body.

In a separate study posted on the preprint server MedRxiv, the company noted a “significant association” between the H2-blocker’s use and increased breast, thyroid, bladder and prostate cancer diagnoses.

The NDMA scare began back in 2018 with recalls of “sartan”-based blood pressure drugs, extended through Zantac recalls and then to the popular Type 2 diabetes med metformin. Unlike the sartan meds and metformin—which were likely contaminated during the manufacturing process, experts say—ranitidine itself is the culprit, Valisure says.


The pharmacy's studies support “decades of research that ranitidine is fundamentally unstable, can form NDMA in a variety of conditions including in the human body and could be carcinogenic and toxic to humans,” David Light, founder and CEO of the company, said in a release.

For the JAMA Network study, Valisure used liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS) to detect the suspected cancer agent in simulated gastric fluid. The company varied pH, as well as nitrite and ranitidine concentrations, to assess possible NDMA formation under different conditions in the stomach. 


At the two-hour mark, researchers linked one 150-mg tablet of cool mint Zantac—mixed with a low-end concentration of sodium nitrite—to formation of 947 ng of NDMA. When the nitrite concentration was increased, the cool mint tablet yielded a maximum of 320,000 ng of the likely carcinogen. That's 320 micrograms—massively outstripping the 0.096-microgram NDMA concentration deemed safe for daily human consumption, a Valisure spokesperson confirmed via email. 

“Valisure detected NDMA in every brand and every dosage form of ranitidine that we tested whether over the counter or prescription and regardless of manufacturer,” Kaury Kucera, Ph.D., chief scientific officer at the company, added. “This appears to be a fundamentally different problem than NDMA contamination found in drugs like valsartan and metformin because it occurs in every brand of ranitidine and is inherent to the molecule itself.”


For its MedRxiv study, Valisure looked at 10,347 cancer patients. A cross-sectional analysis showed ranitidine use, versus other common heartburn drugs, was correlated with a higher risk of breast cancer. The researchers found similar links between ranitidine and thyroid, bladder and prostate cancer risk.

Valisure’s research is something of a post-mortem after 2019’s recall spree. Sanofi in late 2019 pulled all over-the-counter Zantac products from U.S. shelves, while Valisure's spokesperson said she was "not aware of any manufacturers still selling or distributing ranitidine products." 

Sanofi wasn't immediately available to comment. 

Valisure isn’t the only one to sound the alarm on ranitidine. A 2008 study from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center assessed the link between breast cancer risk and three major H2 blockers—cimetidine, famotidine, and ranitidine. After looking at more than 3,000 subjects, the researchers cleared famotidine and cimetidine, but they found ranitidine was “significantly associated” with a common form of breast cancer.


Valisure, meanwhile, brought NDMA to the forefront of drug safety conversations in 2018 when it detected the likely carcinogen in the blood pressure drug valsartan, which in turn led to its own spate of recalls.

In 2020, the plot thickened when Valisure identified NDMA in certain batches of the popular diabetes drug metformin. More than a half-dozen manufacturers, from Lupin to Sun Pharma to the U.S.’s Nostrum Laboratories, had to pull their metformin products, and the recall parade has already bled over into 2021.

Product pulls for metformin and “sartan” blood pressure drugs have been tied to contamination specifically, and Valisure noted that, so far, epidemiological studies have failed to link valsartan use to any human cancers.

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/valisure-links-unstable-zantac-and-its-ilk-to-carcinogen-build-up-cancer-risk

Covid-19 vaccine pipeline builds as Clover and Dynavax push on

 Several late-stage Covid-19 vaccine successes have not deterred developers working on earlier projects, and today Clover became the latest to announce a move into phase II/III, with a vaccine codenamed SCB-2019. The move is notable because the China biotech is proceeding with a Dynavax adjuvant, rather than one made by Glaxosmithkline. A study of both vaccine-adjuvant combinations found that immune responses were lower when SCB-2019 was adjuvanted with Dynavax’s CpG/Alum, as opposed to Glaxo’s AS03, though the authors stressed that the data could not be extrapolated to infer protection. Clover apparently saw enough to push on with CpG/Alum, although it might not have had a choice; Glaxo could well have chosen to prioritise the two other vaccine projects that utilise AS03. The adjuvant is also being used in a Medicago project, and in the delayed Sanofi vaccine collaboration. A spokesperson for the UK pharma giant told Evaluate Vantage that manufacturing capacity had no bearing on the move. With big names in vaccine development failing to progress it is encouraging to see a full pipeline coming behind the leaders, although maybe the bar to push on is lower for those with smaller commercial vision.

Coming behind: the second wave of Covid-19 vaccines? 
Project Description Company Update
CVnCoVmRNA (2 dose)CurevacHerald, Europe ph2/3 data due Q1 2021; Europe ph3 due 2021
Ad5-nCoVAdenovirus type 5 vaccine (1 dose)Cansino BiologicsPh3 recruiting in Russia & S America
Coronavirus-like particle Covid-19 vaccineCoronavirus-like particle vaccine (2 dose)GSK/MedicagoPh2/3 started Nov 2020 in Canada & US
Covid-19 S-TrimerTrimerised fusion protein (2 dose) Clover/DynavaxPh2/3 to start H1 2021; interim analysis due mid-2021
Covid-19 vaccine projectRecombinant protein (1 or 2 dose tbc) Sanofi/Glaxo Ph3 due to start 2021, pending development of new formulation
INO-4800DNA vaccine (2 dose)InovioPh2 stage of pivotal study recruiting; ph3 stage remains on US hold; ph2 enrolling in China
ARCT-021Self-amplifying mRNA vaccine (1 or 2 dose tbc)ArcturusPh3 planned for Q2 2021 pending data from ongoing Ph2
ZyCoV-DDNA vaccine (3 doses)Zydus Cadila Ph3 cleared to start in India Jan 2021
Note: includes notable projects already progressed into phase II/III development or likely to do so imminently. List not exhaustive. Source: EvaluatePharma & company statements.

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/snippets/covid-19-vaccine-pipeline-builds-clover-and-dynavax-push

Roche: SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test Nasal allows patient self-collection

  -- The SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test Nasal uses a nasal swab to quickly and

      conveniently collect specimens from people suspected of having an active 
      infection 
 
   -- Nasal sampling allows for collection of the sample from the front area of 
      the nose instead of the nasopharynx resulting on a less invasive testing 
      experience for patients 
 
   -- The test also provides patients with the option to self-collect their 
      nasal sample 
 
Roche (SIX: RO, ROG; OTCQX: RHHBY) today 
announced it has obtained the CE mark for its new SARS-CoV-2 Rapid 
Antigen Test Nasal. The test will be available in countries accepting 
the CE mark by mid-February 2021. 
 
 
 
   In comparison to the existing Roche SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test, the 
SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Test Nasal collects the sample from the front 
area of the nose instead of the nasopharynx, resulting in a simplified 
and faster testing procedure(1) . This testing method can help reduce 
overall patient discomfort, particularly in sensitive individuals such 
as children, elderly people and/or people with disabilities. 
 
 
 
   Besides being less invasive, the test also provides patients with the 
option to self-collect their nasal sample under the supervision of a 
healthcare professional. Through reduced physical contact, this method 
of testing can help to decrease the risk of exposure to the virus for 
healthcare professionals. Whether the test could also be used without 
supervision of a healthcare professional will depend on local regulatory 
requirements. 
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ROCHE-HOLDING-AG-9364975/news/Press-Release-Roche-announces-the-upcoming-launch-of-the-SARS-CoV-2-Rapid-Antigen-Test-Nasal-allow-32328198/