'Men have a high likelihood of outliving women: global study'

 

• Despite conventional theories relying on women’s generally longer life expectancies, researchers found between 25 and 50 percent of men have outlived women over the past 200 years. 

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• For the analysis published in the British Medical Journal, researchers sought to quantify the probability the men outlived women using data from 199 populations across every continent over two centuries.

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• The “out survival statistic” measures the likelihood a person from a high death rate population will outlive a person from a population where the death rate is low.  

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Men have a high likelihood of outliving women globally, especially if they are married and educated, according to a new analysis.  

Despite conventional theories relying on women’s generally longer life expectancies, researchers found between 25 and 50 percent of men have outlived women over the past 200 years. 

“A blind interpretation of life expectancy differences can sometimes lead to a distorted perception of the actual inequalities [in lifespan],” researchers wrote.  

“Not all females outlive males, even if a majority do. But the minority that do not is not small,” they added. 

Data from 2020 shows life expectancy for males worldwide is 71 years, and 75 years for females. 

For the analysis published in the British Medical Journal, researchers sought to quantify the probability the men outlived women – using the “out survival statistic” – using data from 199 populations across every continent over two centuries.  

The “out survival statistic” measures the likelihood a person from a high death rate population will outlive a person from a population where the death rate is low.  

The team used life tables by sex and age for 41 countries from Human Mortality Database, plus separate data for formerly East and West Germany, and for the U.K. They also used abridged life tables from the World Population Prospects 2019, which offers sex-specific data for 199 countries in five-year age groups and periods from 1950–54 to 2015–19. Then marriage and education level were evaluated using U.S. data on population counts and deaths.  

Researchers found that between 1 and 2 out of every 4 men have outlived women over the past 200 years. Yet the probability that men outlive women is higher in low and middle-income countries, as the probability fell in developed countries until 1970, according to the research. 

Broken down by marital status, the probability of married men outliving women was 39 percent. It was 43 percent for those with a college degree. And married men with degrees have an advantage over unmarried women with a high school education, with researchers pointing to the advantage of stable relationships. 

However, researchers found the death rate has declined faster for women than men, as child mortality rates have fallen. They note that men are still disadvantaged at younger and older ages given a higher prevalence of smoking and drinking in their 20’s and 30’s — leading to premature death later in life. 

“Efforts in reducing lifespan inequalities must thus target diverse factors, causes and ages,” they conclude. 

Data from the World Bank shows the average life expectancy in the U.S. is 77 years.

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/3586335-men-have-a-high-likelihood-of-outliving-women-global-study-finds/

Biden tests positive for fifth straight day after ‘rebound’ COVID infection

 President Biden tested positive for COVID-19 again on Wednesday but continues to feel “well,” his physician, Kevin O’Connor, said in a new update that noted Biden is coughing less frequently. 

O’Connor said that he examined Biden on Wednesday morning after the president enjoyed a “light workout” and that Biden has no fever and his vital signs remain normal.  

“The President continues to feel well,” O’Connor wrote in a memorandum released by the White House. “He is still experiencing an occasional cough, but less frequently than yesterday. He remains fever-free and in good spirits. His temperature, pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate and oxygen saturation remain entirely normal. His lungs remain clear.” 

Biden is expected to continue to isolate in the White House residence until testing negative. 

Wednesday was the fifth day in a row that Biden tested positive for the coronavirus in what his doctor described as a “rebound” infection that has been seen in some patients who take the antiviral treatment Paxlovid.  

Biden was first diagnosed with COVID-19 on July 21. After completing his five-day course of Paxlovid and experiencing only mild symptoms, Biden reemerged from isolation last week only to test positive again on Saturday.  

The events have complicated Biden’s schedule, forcing him to cancel a planned trip to Michigan on Tuesday that he instead participated in virtually. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3586365-biden-tests-positive-for-fifth-straight-day-after-rebound-covid-infection-doctor-says/

Polio Virus Found in New York Wastewater, but No New Cases

 The polio virus was detected in wastewater samples from the suburban county near New York City where an unvaccinated adult recently contracted the life-threatening disease, but health officials said Tuesday they have not identified any additional cases.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the presence of the virus was detected in wastewater samples collected in early June from Rockland County, where officials on July 21 announced the first case of polio in the United States in nearly a decade.

The unidentified young adult had a strain of the virus that has since been genetically linked to samples found in Rockland County wastewater, as well to samples in London and the Jerusalem area.

The CDC said in a prepared statement said that the New York wastewater sample shows there may be more people in the community shedding the virus.

“However, it’s important to note that we don’t have enough information at this time to determine if the virus is actively spreading in New York or elsewhere in the U.S., and no additional cases have been identified,” according to the CDC.

Health officials have said the patient had acquired a “vaccine-derived” strain of the virus, meaning it probably originated in someone who had been inoculated with a live vaccine — available in other countries, but not the U.S. In rare instances, people given the live virus can spread it to other people who haven't been vaccinated.

New York health officials said they could not conclusively say whether the Rockland County samples came from the patient, who developed symptoms in June.

As to the wider implications, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative said in a statement Friday that genetic and epidemiological investigations are attempting “to determine possible spread of the virus and potential risk associated with these various isolates detected from different locations around the world.”

Polio, once one of the nation’s most feared diseases, was declared eliminated in the United States in 1979, more than two decades after vaccines became available.

Its discovery in the populous suburbs north of New York City prompted a local vaccination drive.

“Given how quickly polio can spread, now is the time for every adult, parent, and guardian to get themselves and their children vaccinated as soon as possible,” said New York State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-08-02/polio-virus-found-in-new-york-wastewater-but-no-new-cases

CVS Raises Annual COVID-Related Revenue Forecast to $3 Billion

 CVS Health Corp on Wednesday lifted its annual outlook for COVID-19-related revenue as it expects sales of over-the-counter coronavirus tests to more than double this year, sending shares up over 5%.

The largest U.S. pharmacy chain also raised its forecast for annual COVID vaccinations by 2 million to 20 million, reflecting the demand for more boosters.

Pharmacy chain operators such as CVS have benefited from distributing COVID vaccines and tests, but demand for lab tests and vaccinations has slowed in recent months as overall coronavirus cases in the United States remain steady.

CVS administered about 6 million COVID shots nationwide in the second quarter, Chief Executive Officer Karen Lynch said, sharply lower from over 20 million in the last quarter of 2021.

The company forecast annual COVID-related revenue of $3 billion, as it now expects sales to drop by about a third compared with its earlier forecast of a two-thirds slump.

CVS also raised its adjusted profit outlook to $8.40-$8.60 per share from $8.20-$8.40 per share after its second-quarter earnings beat Wall Street estimates.

The outlook, especially for its insurance business, is conservative for the second half the year due to COVID-related uncertainty, Evercore analysts Elizabeth Anderson and Michael Newshel said in a note.

Excluding one-off items, the company reported quarterly earnings per share of $2.40 compared with analysts' average estimate of $2.17, as per Refinitiv IBES data.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-08-03/cvs-health-raises-forecast-as-insurance-business-otc-covid-tests-boost-q2-profit

EU Says Novavax COVID Vaccine Should Carry Heart Side-Effect Warning

 The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is recommending Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine carry a warning of two types of heart inflammation, based on a small number of reported cases, an added burden for a shot that has failed to win wide uptake.

The conditions - myocarditis and pericarditis - should be listed as new side effects in the product information for the vaccine, Nuvaxovid, the EMA said on Wednesday.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration flagged a risk of heart inflammation from the Novavax vaccine in early June.

Myocarditis and pericarditis were previously identified as rare side effects, mostly seen in young men, from the established mRNA vaccines made by Moderna and the Pfizer-BioNTech alliance with the vast majority of those affected recovering fully.

The EU agency said on Wednesday it asked U.S. vaccine developer Novavax to provide additional data on the risk of these side effects occurring. Novavax did not have an immediate comment.

Last month, the EMA identified severe allergic reactions as potential side effects of the vaccine.

Novavax was hoping that people who have opted not to take Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines - which are based on the groundbreaking messenger RNA (mRNA) technology - would favour its shot because it relies on technology that has been used for decades to combat diseases including hepatitis B and influenza.

However, only around 250,000 doses of Nuvaxovid have been administered in Europe so far since its launch in December, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-08-03/eu-says-novavax-covid-vaccine-should-carry-heart-side-effect-warning

Novo Nordisk Raises 2022 Outlook, but Shares Fall

 Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk on Wednesday lifted its sales and operating profit forecasts for the year on the back of strong first-half earnings, but its shares fell as much as 10% after the announcement.

Novo Nordisk now expects sales growth of 12-16% at constant exchange rates, up from a previous estimate of 10-14%. It sees operating profit up 11-15%, versus an earlier estimate of 9-13%.

Shares in Novo traded down 9.4% at 1507 GMT.

"It could be lower than expected sales of Wegovy, which disappointed," Sydbank analyst Soren Lontoft told Reuters, referring to Novo's new obesity drug, which has faced supply issues since its launch in the United States last year.

Sales of Wegovy declined to 1.2 billion Danish crowns ($163.27 million) in the second quarter from 1.4 billion in the first quarter. Overall, sales of obesity drugs grew 83% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year.

The company also said it expected to make all dose strengths of Wegovy available in the United States "towards the end of 2022".

"It is perhaps a tightening of the rhetoric compared to Q1, where they said 'in the second half of the year'," Lontoft said, but added the overall results from Novo were "really strong".

Novo reported second-quarter operating profit of 18.4 billion Danish crowns, just above the 18.3 billion forecast by analysts, according to Refinitiv data. The company had initially planned to announce results on Thursday.

"We are very pleased with the sales growth in the first half of 2022. The growth is driven by increasing demand for GLP-1 based diabetes treatments, especially Ozempic," Chief Executive Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen said in a statement.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-08-03/novo-nordisk-raises-2022-outlook-after-strong-first-half

The Marriage Tax

 Economists, tax specialists and even ordinary people have long known that public policies can make marriage very unattractive. At the lower end of the income spectrum, marriage can lead to a significant loss of entitlement benefits. At the high end, couples who marry may face substantially higher income taxes.

There are many reasons to care about this. Academic studies find that marriage stabilizes relationships, improves children’s outcomes and facilitates the development of labor market skills for the adults. In general, marriage is correlated with economic well-being. One study reports that married couples’ average per capita wealth is more than twice that of the never-married.

Until recently researchers have not had the tools to fully measure the full extent of government-created marriage penalties. A new study by Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff and his colleagues gives us the most accurate estimate to date.

The study includes more than 30 different federal and state entitlement programs – all of which condition benefits on the beneficiaries’ incomes. In addition to federal income and payroll taxes, it includes the tax rates in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. And it includes the effects of marriage on such elderly entitlement benefits as Social Security and Medicare. No previous study comes close to this level of careful measurement.

One finding: young adults with low- or middle-income jobs pay a heavy price if they marry. When higher tax rates are combined with a reduction in welfare/entitlement benefits, the economic loss from marriage is equal to between one-and-a-half and two years of income, on average.

Take two people between the ages of 26 and 40:

· If both individuals earn $10 an hour, getting married will lower their lifetime income by more than $70,000, on average.

· If they earn $15 an hour, the lifetime losses will climb to more than $107,000.

· At $20 an hour, their loss will be more than $142,00.

Note that these are only averages. Some couples face marriage burdens that are much higher. In the worst case researchers discovered, getting married has a lifetime cost that is equal to 20 years of income! This occurs when marriage makes a family’s income too high to qualify for Medicaid, but too low to qualify for an Obamacare subsidy in states that have not expanded Medicaid.

The marriage tax differs depending on where people live and what entitlement programs they enroll in. Programs such as Medicaid, for example, vary a lot from state to state in terms of eligibility and the generosity of benefits. To take one example, the overall marriage penalty in Hawaii is twice the size of the one in New Mexico.

One finding of the study is not very surprising: the marriage penalty affects low-income couples more than high-income couples. Take individuals with incomes between $26,000 and $40,000. On the average, they face a marriage tax rate that is more than twice the rate for the 20 percent of families with the highest incomes.

This is certainly part of the reason why only 36 percent of individuals with annual incomes below $26,000 are married, while the marriage rate for those with annual incomes above $103,100 is more than double that, at 77 percent. (See the diagram.)

Individuals with incomes between $26,000 and $40,000 on average face a marriage tax rate that is … [+]
 
FROM A STUDY BY ELIAS ILIN, LAURENCE J. KOTLIKOFF, MELINDA PITTS

For couples who earn $26,000 or less, the biggest components of the marriage tax are the potential loss of Medicaid and food stamps. These losses are partially offset by an actual gain from income tax credits and larger subsidies in the Obamacare health insurance exchanges.

For couples at higher income levels, the potential loss of Medicaid and food stamp benefits becomes less important, and the Obamacare subsidies begin to penalize marriage. For couples who earn more than $100,000, two-thirds of the marriage penalty is created by the tax law alone – because of the couple’s inability to file completely separate tax returns.

To make matters worse, the same fiscal system that creates a marriage penalty also imposes very high marginal tax rates on labor income, especially on people at the low end of the income spectrum. We are discouraging marriage and productive work at the same time with the same policies.

Is it possible to have a compassionate fiscal system that does not create these perverse incentives?

Replacing our income tax system with a flat tax or a national sales tax or a value added tax would eliminate the income tax part of the marriage penalty. Under such tax regimes, couples would have no tax reason to marry or divorce. At a minimum, couples should have an option of filing completely separate tax returns.

What about health care? Through the years there have been a number of proposals to replace all tax and spending health care subsidies with a fixed-sum tax credit for private insurance, regardless of personal income or marital status. For those who decline the opportunity, the credit amount would be sent to a local safety net and communities receiving these funds would be required to establish and provide safety-net care. The most recent bill is sponsored by Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX).

We already make a great deal of food available to children in a way that avoids perverse incentives. Many large city school districts provide lunch and breakfast without charge to all students, regardless of income, and in the 2020-2021 school year, the federal government extended free meals to all students in every district.

Housing subsidies might be restructured in ways that do not involve an income or marriage test.

There are many good reasons not to get married. Government policies should not be among them.

https://www.goodmaninstitute.org/2022/07/17/the-marriage-tax/