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Friday, January 20, 2023

Tamping down demand for spyware in Europe is an uphill battle

 Greek authorities closed out 2022 with a bang by raiding six surveillance-for-hire companies. A key target of the crackdown was Intellexa, an Israeli cyber intelligence firm operating in Greece through its subsidiary, Cytrox. Known for its Predator software — which collects mobile phone data after user interaction with a malicious link — Intellexa has become a major spyware exporter, which some governments use for repression of their people. However, Greece’s Intellexa clampdown is not a success story against a notoriously under-regulated industry. Instead, it is a reminder of authoritarian appetites for surveillance and regulatory irresponsibility across Europe.

The raids occurred amidst a domestic spying scandal, in which the Greek National Intelligence Service (EYP) allegedly illegally monitored journalists, government officials and politicians with Predator. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis initially denied the surveillance accusations, and the government claimed no connections to Predator and declared the product was illegal. However, forensics from journalists Stavros Malichudis and Thanasis Koukakis and even former Minister of Energy Kostis Hatzidakis have published reports indicating otherwise.

The Greek case represents a wider trend in the demand for spyware among European democracies. In a report released last summer, the European Parliament found at least 11 European Union (EU) members used or pursued digital spying capabilities. For Europe’s democratic backsliders, this may not be surprising. As democratic checks and balances erode, authoritarian behaviors such as targeted domestic surveillance are more likely to emerge. For example, leaders in Poland and Hungary reportedly have used spyware to monitor journalists, academics, activists and opposition. The Orban government reportedly has surveilled over 300 individuals in the past few years, according to a leaked list.

More troubling, however, is the appetite for spyware from Europe’s more consolidated democracies. For example, Spain apparently has utilized spyware since 2001 and spurred numerous domestic spying scandals over the past two decades. Madrid is reported to have often pursued multiple products at once. From 2010 to 2016, Spain’s National Intelligence Center reportedly paid 3.4 million euros to the Italy-based Hacking Team for its Galileo software. In the same period, the Spanish government is said to have deployed Finfisher, spyware sold by Anglo-German Gamma Group. More recently, the controversy over surveilling prominent Catalonians between 2017 and 2020 has revealed Madrid as an alleged longtime user of Pegasus.

But European democracies aren’t just buying spyware. They evidently export these tools to repressive authoritarian regimes, with regulatory action occurring only after public and diplomatic backlash. For example, despite disavowing any links to the spyware, the Greek government confirmed it granted Intellexa licenses to export Predator to Madagascar. Since 2021, the government reportedly has approved at least 12 other sales to foreign countries. Accordingly, Intellexa continued pedaling its software, including a reported sales pitch to Ukraine. Only after domestic turmoil and bad press over Intellexa’s reported unauthorized export of Predator to Sudan did Athens take action against the firm.

A similar scene played out in Italy with Hacking Team. From 2008 to 2014, the Italian government reportedly authorized the company to export its Galileo spyware globally. Hacking Team subsequently developed an expansive customer list. In Latin America alone, the firm reportedly held active contracts in seven countries and had negotiations with five others. Yet, lax government oversight meant Hacking Team could ignore its reported role in supporting repressive regimes. Italy revoked the universal export license in 2016 apparently only after the murder of Giulio Regeni in Egypt created tension between Rome and Cairo. But this move appears to have been more about punishing a longtime Hacking Team client in Egypt than about regulating spyware exports.

Curbing Europe’s spyware problem requires addressing both supply and demand. The former is likely easier than the latter. Adhering to common export controls across the EU is an important step in overcoming inconsistent or nonexistent oversight of spyware sales to non-European countries. But implementation power ultimately rests with national governments, meaning that driving consensus around spyware regulation will require sustained diplomacy and pressure from partners. This is an area where the Biden administration must take a more proactive leadership role in shaping the international spyware agenda and response.

Tamping down the demand for spyware within Europe is going to be harder, though, particularly when democratic governments acquire capabilities from their own private sectors. In this sense, the Greek Parliament’s recent vote to ban spyware in the country and impose a two-year minimum prison sentence on violators can serve as a test case for deterring spyware abuses. However, the slim margin upon which the legislation passed — all opposition lawmakers opposed the bill — shows that democratic governments have an uphill climb to regain political trust after illegal surveillance. Greater transparency and accountability are certainly required for European democracies to live up to their rhetoric on privacy and other civil rights.

Jason Blessing, Ph.D., is a Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Research Fellow with the foreign and defense policy department at the American Enterprise Institute. His research focuses on cybersecurity as well as transatlantic relations. Follow him on twitter @JasonABlessing.

https://thehill.com/opinion/cybersecurity/3812665-tamping-down-demand-for-spyware-in-europe-is-an-uphill-battle/

3 active duty US Marines charged for participation in Jan. 6 riot

 Three active duty U.S. Marines were charged this week with misdemeanors for breaking into the U.S. Capitol during the rioting on Jan. 6, 2021, as a far-right mob sought to overturn certification of the 2020 election.

The FBI charged Micah Coomer, Dodge Dale Hellonen and Joshua Abate with four misdemeanor accounts, according to court documents unsealed Thursday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

The charges are related to disorderly conduct while intending to disrupt government business, entering a restricted building and parading or picketing on the U.S. Capitol grounds.

All three Marines were caught on video inside the Capitol on Jan. 6 along with a mob of former President Trump’s supporters, according to an FBI affidavit.

At one point, they placed a red MAGA hat on a statue inside the federal building and posed for photos with it, the FBI said.

All three defendants were allegedly identified through video footage that was paired with identification records, including driver’s licenses.

Agents also identified Coomer after he posted Instagram photos of the riot and allegedly wrote that he was “glad to be apart of history.”

In a Jan. 31, 2021, conversation with another user on Instagram, Coomer allegedly wrote that the 2020 election was unfair and “that everything in this country is corrupt,” expressing a desire for a “fresh restart” and also making a reference to a second civil war.

All three defendants were arrested on Wednesday, according to the FBI. Coomer was taken into custody in Oceanside, Calif., where Camp Pendleton is based.

Abate was arrested in Ft. Meade, Md., where there is a military base, and Hellonen was arrested in Jacksonville, N.C., where Camp Lejeune is located.

More than 950 Jan. 6 rioters have been arrested and about 484 defendants have pleaded guilty to a wide range of charges related to the rioting.

https://thehill.com/homenews/3820983-three-active-duty-us-marines-charged-for-participation-in-jan-6-riot/

Fed probes Goldman Sachs consumer business

 The U.S. Federal Reserve is probing the consumer business of Goldman Sachs Group Inc to determine whether the bank had appropriate safeguards in place as it ramped up lending, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Goldman Sachs did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-fed-probes-goldman-sachs-164052985.html

Marinus started at Outperform by RBC

 Target $23

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MRNS&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

Over 1 million French workers strike against effort to raise retirement age

 Over one million French workers took to the streets to protest a government plan to reform the nation’s pension plans, including a bump for the age of retirement. 

"Now, the government finds itself with its back to the wall," the leading French trade unions said in a joint statement. "Everyone knows that raising the retirement age only benefits employers and the wealthy."

French President Emmanuel Macron intends to push the retirement age from 62 to 64 in an effort to keep the pension system financially viable, but unions say the change will threaten their rights. 

The government says that pushing back the retirement age by two years will add 17.7 billion euros ($19.1 billion) in annual contributions, allowing the system to break even by 2027, Reuters reported. 

The unions have proposed alternatives to the plan, such as taxing the wealthy or mandating more payroll contributions from employers to finance the system, but Macron continues to insist that his plan is the best way to resolve the situation. 

France protest Macron

Protesters march during a demonstration against pension changes, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2023 in Paris. (AP Photo/Lewis Joly / AP Newsroom)

"This problem can be solved in a different way, through taxation. Workers should not have to pay for the public sector deficit," said Laurent Berger, the leader of CFDT, France's biggest labor union.

Macron, who was in Barcelona for a French-Spanish summit, acknowledged public discontent but said the reform remains necessary to "save" French pensions. The aging population and growing life expectancy in France, along with its commitment that everyone receives a state pension, has pushed the government to ensure the system remains solvent. 

"We will do it with respect, in a spirit of dialogue but also determination and responsibility," Macron said.

But the public strongly opposes the reform, with polls suggesting most people reject the proposal. The strikes on Thursday present the first public reaction to the plan, with disruptions to transport, schools and other public services as more than 200 rallies occurred across the country. 

france protest firefighters

Firefighters demonstrate against pension changes, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2023 in Lille, northern France. (AP Photo/Michel Spingler / AP Newsroom)

The Interior Ministry said more than 1.1 million people protested, with around 800,000 in Paris alone. Unions have claimed more than two million people took part in the protests nationwide. 

The mostly peaceful protests resulted in small skirmishes with police, with several dozen protesters arrested, and police firing tear gas at some groups. 

The unions have called for a second day of widespread strikes on Jan. 31 as they try to force Macron to back down from his plan. 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/1-million-french-workers-strike-effort-raise-retirement-age

US economy will 'pay a price' in 2023 from 'misguided' pandemic policies

 First Trust Advisors chief economist Brian Wesbury issued a bleak warning on the U.S. economy, Friday, telling "Varney & Co." the government's spending response to the COVID pandemic has put the nation on the brink of a "moderate" recession akin to the economic downturn of the early 1990s.

BRIAN WESBURYI shouldn’t be smiling about this, but hey, you know, people started calling me a permabull, because I was bullish over the 12-13 years leading up to COVID. I don’t know what else I was supposed to be, but I’m not bullish anymore. I think COVID and the response that we did during the pandemic, you know, the equivalent of a car accident. We broke our leg, the ambulance shows up, and they pump us full of morphine. That’s all the money printing, that’s all the borrowing and paying people not to work. Then you go to the emergency room, you’re laying on the gurney, the doc says, "How are you feeling?," and you go, "I feel great," but once that morphine starts to wear off, you don’t feel great. 

So as we roll into 2023, I think that morphine is wearing off. Obviously, the Fed is reversing course, slowing money growth, and raising interest rates. We’re not handing out stimulus checks anymore, and I think we’re going to pay a price. That’s the recession that we see this year. Now it’s not 2008 and it’s not 1999-2000, the market is not massively overvalued. We do not have over-leveraged banks, but I think a recession like 1990-1991. Unemployment could go to 6% or 6.5%. It will be a moderate kind of historically average recession when we pay back for the pandemic policies that I think were misguided. 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-pay-price-2023-misguided-pandemic-policies-expert-warns

"Corporations Need To Find A New, Inhabited Planet To Avoid Wage Inflation Issues"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Stocks lost more of their early-2023 “Let’s do the opposite of 2022!” enthusiasm yesterday after another coordinated round of central-bank speech.

In Europe, ECB President Lagarde followed up on earlier comments backing multiple 50bp rate hikes ahead to stress that she would “stay the course”, implying there will be more advances and no retreat, no surrender. That is certainly a better market quote that the recent one in relation to the ECB being under fire over its inflation performance from its own staff, where she said, "If it wasn't for [the Executive Board] I'd be a sad, lonely cowgirl lost somewhere in the Pampa of monetary policy." Why does ‘The Woman of La Pampa’ now spring to my mind? Why am I humming ‘Dream the impossible dream?’

In the US, Vice-Fed Chair Brainard, a dove, peppered her comments with if and buts and candy and nuts, but still ended up with the same phrase: “stay the course”. That again implies more hikes to come and then a long hiatus, not the imminent reversal markets are pricing for. Indeed, Lagarde gave a specific warning to markets to re-price their expectations of chocolate and fries for dinner, to refer back to a calorific Global Daily from earlier this week.

Crude oil prices edged up again, with WTI back over $80 and Brent at $86. Imagine what they might have done if the ECB and Fed and both said they were about to hit an obstacle on their chosen course, and would be retreating, while throwing chocolate and fries at us. Of course central banks can’t U-turn against that backdrop, and of course asset markets don’t want to admit that. (“We will cut rates if energy allows us to.” “We will have a bumper year if energy allows central banks to allow us to.” You won’t find much of that in 2023 market outlooks, I suspect.)

True, a Qatari official made clear they don’t want to see energy prices too high, because that ends up blowing back at them via inflation, and blowing things up generally. What they want is reduced volatility. But is that consistent with G7 rates going up and down like a yo-yo to juice asset markets? Not so much. Which again implies that ‘staying the course’.

Data-wise, markets were also irritated by US initial claims falling even further, underlining the labor market is not weakening yet. That implies the risk of wage inflation, and so of the higher rates course, and so lower returns for the asset-rich. How irritating that the economy is ostensibly performing well for ordinary working people, not assets!

Relatedly, Bloomberg reports Hong Kong’s post-Covid re-opening has been ‘ruined’ for hospitality businesses by a lack of staff. That is the experience everywhere globally, backing up the ‘ground-breaking’ US study that said Covid was a structural break that changed how things work: rather, it changed what the bottom end of the labor market will work for. That's even more the case given how far *actual* inflation has risen for those at the bottom end.

In that light, “Let’s do the opposite of 2022!” market trades are ‘A New Hope’ – but omit the line: “I felt a great disturbance in the Market Forces, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.”

While there may still be global wage differentials for virtue-preaching, profit-maximising Western corporations to exploit --as they seek to end-run striking workers in the UK and France, for example-- wherever they shift their workforce to, they are still going to find the same kind of low-end wage pressures ready to explode. For just one example, Thailand's main opposition party, ahead of 2023 elections, says it will double the country's minimum wage over the next few years.

Looking round the world, it seems corporations would need to find a new, inhabited planet to avoid wage inflation issues. (That or a deep recession that would also not be good for equities.) So, perhaps it’s not only ultra-high-end tourism and natural resources that space-focused billionaires are thinking of as the economic justification for their orbital jaunts? Indeed, I guarantee you that if we did ever find ‘Little Green Men’, after the initial “We come in peace,” then the not so peaceful national security screening, within minutes somebody would ask, “Does your species know how to assemble a smart phone?”

But for now we are earth-bound: and as such is it going to be central banks or markets who stay their course?

Government will provide part of the answer: the US recently imposed a deal on a key union, and the UK is pushing for ‘no right to strike’ legislation for its public-sector workers, who are striking like swarms of bees in response. Who wins that fight, one wonders? And how does anyone have any real purchasing power if the government does?

Expect more set-piece labor vs. capital clashes ahead, and more of the outright withdrawal of low-end labor currently being seen globally. Both will be as determinative of the actual wage/inflation/rates course from the bottom up as the market’s presumed rates/inflation/wage course looks from the top down.

Let me conclude in noting that unlike the speculation in 90’s slacker movie ‘Clerks’ that minimum-wage contract labor was heavily used on the ‘New Hope’ Death Star that blew up all those voices, the latest Star Wars TV show we are collectively not watching reveals this technological terror was actually built by forced labor. But luckily that’s only sci-fi,… right?

Happy Friday – and may the market forces be with you.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/corporations-need-find-new-inhabited-planet-avoid-wage-inflation-issues