Apollo's Sløk: The Fed 'will not cut rates this year'

 Apollo Global's chief economist Torsten Sløk is throwing in the towel on rate cuts in 2024.

In an email on Friday, Sløk said the Federal Reserve "will not cut rates this year and rates are going to stay higher for longer" amid a resurgence in growth and stubborn inflation pressures. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.)

Financial markets entered 2024 expecting the Fed to cut rates six times this year. Sløk's call on Friday marks a departure from most peers on Wall Street, who still expect the central bank to have at least some room to ease rates off 23-year highs.

Forecasts from the Fed published in December showed Fed officials expected to cut rates three times this year. Updated forecasts from the Fed will be published on March 20 alongside its next monetary policy decision.

Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

Sløk's note highlighted ten reasons why he sees the Fed holding off on rate cuts, which boil down to three general areas: inflation, growth, and the stock market.

"Underlying measures of trend inflation are moving higher," Sløk wrote.

A bevy of inflation data, including wages, alternative inflation measures from the Cleveland and Atlanta Federal Reserve banks, so-called "supercore" inflation, and manufacturing surveys, suggested durable inflation pressures.

Thursday's inflation reading showed the Fed's preferred measure, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.4% over the prior month in January, the most in a year.

And while the annual rise in core PCE fell to a nearly three-year low, six-month annualized core PCE surged to 2.5% after two consecutive readings below the Fed's 2% target.

In terms of wages, January's jobs report showed average hourly earnings rose 4.5% over the prior year in the first month of 2024.

"Following the Fed pivot in December," Sløk wrote, "the labor market remains tight, jobless claims are very low, and wage inflation is sticky between 4% and 5%."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested in recent public comments that the data didn't yet pose a risk to the Fed bringing inflation back to 2%.

In a press conference on Jan. 30, Powell said wage increases are "not quite back to where they ... need to be in the longer run" for the Fed to reach its goals but added that this data was "moving in the right direction."

Next Friday's February jobs report will offer a crucial update on this front.

Earlier this week, we noted that growth forecasts continue to be revised higher on Wall Street, though these revisions were not yet seen as preventing the Fed from proceeding with rate cuts later this year.

On Thursday, for instance, Bank of America economist Michael Gapen raised his growth forecast for 2024 to 2.1% from 1.2%. The firm still expects three rate cuts this year from the Fed, starting in June.

"Growth expectations for 2024 saw a big jump following the Fed pivot in December and the associated easing in financial conditions," Sløk wrote. "Growth expectations for the US continue to be revised higher."

In December, Fed officials forecast GDP growth would come in at 1.4% this year. These outlooks will also be updated later this month.

Sløk concluded by detailing how financial conditions continue to ease, which is bolstering M&A markets, credit markets, IPO activity, and, of course, equities. The S&P 500 just finished its best February since 2015, and the Nasdaq closed at a record high on Thursday.

"The bottom line is that the Fed will spend most of 2024 fighting inflation," Sløk wrote.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/torsten-sl%C3%B8k-the-fed-will-not-cut-rates-this-year-154544744.html

'Trump Victory Is Now A Base Case'

 By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

Gramscical world

Rate cuts soon! Rate cuts delayed! A rate hike instead of a cut? As we have been arguing in this Global Daily, we are still in this Gramscical world, where the old is dying, but the new is having difficulties with birth. And this is not just from a geopolitical or geoeconomic perspective.

Illustrative of this was the reaction to US PCE inflation data. Although core PCE inflation was broadly in line with consensus estimates, Bloomberg ran two stories. One read “Bonds Climb After ‘No New Bad News’ on Inflation”. The other, “Fed’s Preferred Inflation Metric Increases by Most in a Year”, underscored that the core PCE data, on a six-month annualized basis, rebounded to 2.5% in January after staying below it in the previous two months. Bear in mind, also, that this figure came after a confusing email by the BLS to a group of ‘super users’ that it later tried to retract. In that message the BLS argued that a surge in the measure of rental inflation – which unexpectedly rose sharply in the January CPI – had been due to a “shift in underlying calculations”, which could either imply that this change was a structural shift in prices/inflation or in fact an error which could be corrected at a later stage.

So the underlying – or should we say most consistent – narrative that fits the latest string of data is that whilst we are still making some progress on the disinflation path when seen from ‘outta space’, things on the ground are getting a bit more wobbly. European inflation data for February pretty much underscored that message. The underlying trend of gradual disinflation, going by the recent data from Spain, Belgium, Germany and France, remains intact, but these reports did not ease concerns over stickiness in core components (see also the day ahead section for more detail).

Not yet knowing whether they’ll become parent to a boy or girl, central banks best hold off on painting the nursery for a little longer. The adverse impact of moving too early is still bigger than the cost of cutting somewhat too late: credibility would take another hit if a resurgence of inflationary pressures forces policymakers to backtrack after a couple of cuts. That’s not just our concern. The European Parliament, who hold the ECB accountable, this week expressed their unease about inflation and the institutions’ credibility.

The ECB has, however, started to furnish the room. Reuters reported that the Governing Council has made some decisions regarding its future operational framework. According to their sources, the ECB intends to operate a ‘demand-driven floor’. In such a framework, the central bank provides as much liquidity as banks ask for, while using the deposit facility rate to steer money markets by setting the lowest rate at which banks are willing to lend to each other. The efficiency of such a framework relies on banks’ willingness to borrow from the ECB. That’s related to the costs of borrowing reserves. So the ECB can improve efficiency by narrowing the spread between the refinancing rate and the deposit rate.

Reuters’ sources suggested that this could “be announced as early as the ECB's non-policy meeting on March 13.” Yet, the ECB’s own calendar lists no such meeting. We do note that next week’s interest rate decision comes into effect on that date. Could the ECB announce an asynchronous cut to the refinancing rate next Thursday? Given the ample liquidity in the system, this should not meaningfully impact money market rates. Yet, it would pose a huge communication challenge, particularly to a broader audience that does not distinguish between the different policy rates.

China’s manufacturing data this morning were Gramscical as well. Manufacturing activity slipped again in February (official PMI 0.1 point down to 49.1 in February) but services activity picked up somewhat (up 0.7 to 51.4). Are the governments’ interventions in equity markets helping engineer a turnaround in consumer sentiment and spending? Unlikely. The pickup in services was probably driven by lunar holiday travel spending rather than a signal of a broad-based recovery. If manufacturing stays weak while services activity picks up, the bigger risk is perhaps that the policy response will be one that boosts production (and overcapacity) rather than consumption.

This brings us to the last, but certainly not least important topic. Yesterday, the White House issued a statement by President Biden on the national security risks to the US auto industry. “China’s policies could flood our market with its vehicles, posing risks to our national security. I’m not going to let that happen on my watch.”, Biden said. The key concern here is the connectedness and collection of sensitive data by new vehicles and so the Biden administration is launching an investigation into these risks.  This is actually a step closer to outright bans on Chinese cars, not tariffs, as suggested by Donald Trump. But the outcome may well be the same.

It also shows that the current White House is acutely aware of the pressure it is under with the elections approaching and the subdued approval ratings for Biden in the polls. Biden may want to take wind out of Trump sails by sounding and acting tough on China. Is he trying to push out a Trump child with Democratic genes?

Our US strategist Philip Marey even thinks that, looking at the growth and employment outlook for the remainder of this year, the current situation for Biden may be as good as it gets. This also implies that – looking at the current polls – one is almost forced to take a Trump victory as base case, even though there is still so much uncertainty.

Given Trump’s first term in office and his recent remarks on trade policy, we should expect a broad rise in import tariffs under a Trump presidency, Philip argues. This could lead to a rebound in inflation, especially in 2025, complicating the Fed’s mission to get inflation back to its 2% target in a sustainable manner. Ceteris paribus, this could reduce the amount of rate cuts that the Fed has in mind for 2025.

No need to argue that this could also have serious global ramifications…

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-it-gets-biden-one-bank-says-trump-victory-now-base-case

Medtronic files ITC action against Axonics to stop unauthorized use

 Medtronic (NYSE:MDT), the global leader in healthcare technology, today announced it filed a complaint with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC), along with a parallel action in U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware, to block Axonics from improperly importing and selling products that infringe two Medtronic patents related to the MRI compatibility of implantable medical devices.

"Medtronic is continuing our efforts to stop Axonics from profiting off of their unauthorized use of our innovations and intellectual property," said Mira Sahney, president of the pelvic health business in the neuroscience portfolio at Medtronic. "The pattern is clear: Axonics uses Medtronic technologies to improperly compete in the market. It is time for Axonics to be held accountable for these unlawful acts."

Medtronic is asking the ITC to investigate(opens new window) and exclude the importation of the infringing Axonics products into the United States.

Medtronic currently has a separate infringement suit pending in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California in which it asserts that Axonics has infringed additional technologies developed by and belonging to Medtronic.

https://news.medtronic.com/2024-02-29-Medtronic-files-ITC-action-against-Axonics-to-stop-unauthorized-use-of-Medtronic-innovations

Nuvation results & updates

 Determined maximum tolerated dose (MTD) in Phase 1 monotherapy study of NUV-868; Phase 1b studies of NUV-868 in combination with olaparib or enzalutamide remain ongoing

Received U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) clearance of Investigational New Drug (IND) application for NUV-1511, the first clinical candidate from our novel drug-drug conjugate (DDC) platform

Strong balance sheet with cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $611.2 million as of December 31, 2023

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240229647917/en/

Teva Challenges UroGen Pharma’s Jelmyto Patent Rights

 UroGen Pharma Ltd. has been notified by Teva Pharmaceuticals of their intent to produce a generic version of UroGen’s drug, Jelmyto, used for treating urothelial cancers. Teva is challenging the validity of UroGen’s patents on Jelmyto, which are set to expire in 2031. UroGen’s CEO, Liz Barrett, expressed confidence in the company’s patent portfolio and its pioneering role in the market, suggesting they are ready to defend their intellectual property rights.

https://www.tipranks.com/news/company-announcements/teva-challenges-urogen-pharmas-jelmyto-patent-rights

Ad 

 

Unmut

3 Healthcare Stocks That Have Outperformed Nvidia Since 2022

 Tech giant Nvidia has been one of the hottest stocks over the past couple of years, with its shares more than doubling since 2022. But technology isn't the only place where investors can find excellent investments.

In fact, three healthcare stocks that have outperformed Nvidia since 2022 are TransMedics Group (NASDAQ: TMDX), Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), and Verona Pharma (NASDAQ: VRNA). Here's a look at how well these stocks have performed, why they have fared so well, and whether they're still good buys today.

1. TransMedics Group: 369%

TransMedics is a fairly small medical device company with a market capitalization of $2.5 billion. The company has developed an organ care platform for which the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted approval; it can transport multiple organs. It's the only multi-organ platform that regulators have approved. It can improve patient outcomes and be a game changer for the business.

The business has been making significant progress in growing its top line over the years, and TransMedics continues to generate impressive numbers. On Monday, the company reported its 2023 fourth-quarter results, and revenue totaling $81.2 million was up 159% year over year. TransMedics also posted a profit of $4 million. For 2024, TransMedics expects its full-year revenue to grow by around 50%, totaling between $360 million and $370 million.

With a lot more growth still on the horizon, it may not be too late to invest in the healthcare stock despite its already impressive gains.

2. Eli Lilly: 183%

Eli Lilly has become the largest healthcare stock in the world after nearly tripling in value since 2022. The big reason for its recent success is tirzepatide, the active ingredient in both Mounjaro, its diabetes drug, and Zepbound, its approved treatment for weight loss. In clinical trials, tirzepatide has helped people lose an astonishing 26.6% of their body weight when patients made significant lifestyle changes while also using the drug.

The hype surrounding anti-obesity treatments has been the catalyst behind its rally over the past couple of years, as Eli Lilly truly has a game changer on its hands. Analysts believe that tirzepatide could generate at least $68 billion in annual revenue at its peak. Just how high that number ends up will depend on what other indications it may get approved for. In clinical trials, tirzepatide has helped treat fatty liver disease, and similar drugs have been associated with helping to reduce the cardiovascular risk for obese people.

There could still be a lot more upside for Eli Lilly's stock simply due to the opportunity for tirzepatide. Although the stock looks expensive, trading at well over 100 times earnings, that doesn't mean it has peaked; Eli Lilly may very well be the first healthcare stock to reach a $1 trillion valuation.

3. Verona Pharma: 156%

Pharmaceutical company Verona Pharma rounds out this list with gains of 156% since 2022. It's the riskiest stock on this list as it doesn't have an approved product just yet, but it's close to the finish line with ensifentrine. The FDA is currently reviewing the company's application for it in treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and a PDUFA date has been set for June 26.

The $1.4 billion stock could have a lot more room to run if regulators give the drug the green light as it could be a blockbuster, with analysts projecting that at its peak, it could bring in $1.5 billion in annual revenue.

Without approval, however, Verona will continue to incur losses and burn through cash as it doesn't have an approved product to rely on for consistent revenue. But with ensifentrine showing encouraging results in clinical trials, there's hope that approval will happen this year.

If you're not OK with taking on some considerable risk, however, you may want to wait on the sidelines with Verona Pharma stock as it's by no means a sure thing; if regulators push back on the treatment and don't end up approving it, that could lead to a sharp sell-off.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/077f84e3-78a9-3409-853d-e36039c4266d/3-healthcare-stocks-that-have.html

Kinnate to Sell Investigational Pan-RAF Inhibitor, exarafenib, to Pierre Fabre Lab

 

• Kinnate has entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the "APA") with Pierre Fabre Laboratories for global rights to exarafenib and other pan-RAF program assets.

• The transaction is in furtherance of Kinnate's previously announced pursuit of strategic alternatives.

• This acquisition is intended to enable Pierre Fabre Laboratories to pursue its efforts in the field of precision oncology and provide it the opportunity to broaden its reach to patients in need for targeted therapies in RAF and RAS solid tumors.  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinnate-biopharma-inc-sells-investigational-133500289.html