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Sunday, March 10, 2024

MoonLake: Improvement with Nanobody® sonelokimab in active psoriatic arthritis

 MoonLake announces significant improvements with Nanobody® sonelokimab over 24 weeks in active psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and other important updates at its R&D Day

  • Positive 24-week data from the ARGO trial of sonelokimab in PsA:
  • Significant improvements observed across all key outcomes, including approximately 60% of patients treated with sonelokimab achieving an ACR50 response at week 24
  • Unprecedented multi-domain responses across joints, skin and other domains, including up to 52% of patients achieving ACR50+PASI100 and up to 61% of patients achieving Minimal Disease Activity (MDA), supporting potential best-in-class profile of sonelokimab
  • Monthly maintenance with 60mg or 120mg doses showed leading responses above TNF reference arm across all key outcomes including in higher treatment goals (ACR70, PASI100, composites) – 120mg added benefit for specific patient subgroups
  • Low discontinuation rate around 5% and safety profile of sonelokimab consistent with previously reported studies with no new safety signals
  • Update on sonelokimab in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS):
  • Following interactions with the FDA and EMA, MoonLake intends to commence Phase 3 trials in HS in Q2 2024, under the VELA program; the program is expected to enroll 800 patients and reflect a similar protocol design to that used in the MIRA Phase 2 trial, with top-line primary endpoint data expected as early as mid-2025
  • Real-world data indicates that at least 2 million Americans have been diagnosed with HS as of 2023, highlighting a significant unmet need and impact on healthcare systems, and a market opportunity exceeding $10bn by 2035
  • MoonLake further announces that it will imminently commence four additional clinical trials of sonelokimab across dermatology, and rheumatology, including innovative trials in palmo-plantar pustulosis, juvenile HS and seronegative spondyloarthritis

  • The Company is hosting an R&D Day on Sunday, March 10 at 09:00 PDT/12:00 EDT/17:00 CET via webcast (registration link below), alongside the American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) annual meeting

Are Biden’s Red Lines to Netanyahu Really Yellow or Green?

 Today, president Biden warned Netanyahu an assault on Rafah would cross a ‘Red Line’. O.K . What happens if the line is crossed?

Biden Warns Netanyahu

More than a million Palestinians have taken refuge in Rafah. Civilian casualties are sure to be very high if Israel goes in.

Biden set a red line, but Netanyahu says he will attack anyway. This is where alleged red lines aren’t exactly red.

The Wall Street Journal reports Biden Warns Netanyahu an Assault on Rafah Would Cross ‘Red Line’

It is a red line, but I am never going to leave Israel. The defense of Israel is still critical. So there is no red line I am going to cut off all weapons, so they don’t have the Iron Dome to protect them,” Biden told MSNBC, referring to the antimissile interceptors. “But there’s red lines that if he crosses…. You cannot have 30,000 more Palestinians dead.” [Or what?]

“Finishing the war without demilitarizing Rafah is like sending in firefighters to put out 80% of a fire,” Gantz [ Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz] told U.S. officials, according to an Israeli official familiar with his meetings.

Biden understands he needs to make a difference, not a point,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East peace negotiator and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Speaking to lawmakers in the House chamber after the speech, Biden was overheard saying that he would have even tougher words for Netanyahu in private.

“I told him, Bibi, and don’t repeat this, but you and I are going to have a ‘come to Jesus’ meeting,” Biden confided to Sen. Michael Bennet, a Colorado Democrat, before an aide cautioned the president that his words were being broadcast on an open microphone. [Was that on purpose or a typical Biden gaffe?]

The State Department is looking at whether it could invoke a rarely used provision of the Foreign Assistance Act that requires a cutoff of financial and military support for any country that restricts delivery of humanitarian aid, officials said. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D., Md.) is among the lawmakers calling on the Biden administration to use the provision to curtail aid to Israel. [If Biden wanted to do this, he wouldn’t be looking at it, he would be doing it.]

“Anybody with eyes and ears and a brain can see that the Netanyahu government is restricting the delivery of humanitarian aid in Gaza,” said Van Hollen.

Does Biden Have a Line?

If so, is it red, pink, yellow or green?

I am leaning towards yellow or green. Regardless, in his attempt to please everyone, I rather doubt Biden is pleasing anyone.

Note that Biden continues to press for aid to Israel with no strings attached. If that’s not yellow or green, what is it?

Hoot of the Day on Leverage

Ali Vaez, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, said that Biden’s efforts to change Israel’s calculations have had minimal success so far and that U.S. influence might remain limited unless Biden is prepared to take much tougher steps.

The U.S. has tremendous leverage, but very little influence,” he said.

Is it possible to have tremendous leverage but no influence?

The only way I can rationalize such an Orwellian statement is to have red lines that are really green.

What’s Next?

That’s pretty easy. Netanyahu will hold off an assault on Rafah until Congress delivers aid with no strings attached.

Then Biden will howl about red lines while Netanyahu smiles. If Congress does not deliver the aid, Netanyahu will blame Biden.

“It’s Only Temporary and Won’t Require US Boots in Gaza”

Biden announced the US will build a temporary ship docking pier in Gaza that will not require boots on the ground.

For discussion please see “It’s Only Temporary and Won’t Require US Boots in Gaza”

Biden directed the military to carry out the emergency project, aiming to ease food shortages and lack of shelter and medical services for Gaza’s 2.2 million residents, according to U.S. officials who briefed reporters ahead of Biden’s speech Thursday evening.

The forces that will be required to complete this mission are either already in the region or will begin to move there soon, they said. The mission, which is expected to last only temporarily, won’t require U.S. boots on the ground in Gaza, officials said.

Q&A on the Pier and Biden’s Lines

Q:Can you build a pier with no one on the ground?
A: We are about to find out.

Q: Wat happens if the pier comes under fire?
A: We are about to find that out as well.

Q: Has Biden defined temporary? Stated the costs? Have an endgame?
A: No, No, No

Q: Is the US ignoring new illegal Israeli settlements on the West Bank?
A: Yes

Q: Can you cross a red line with no consequences?
A: Only if it’s really green?

Q: What color are Biden’s red lines?
A: I leave that to the reader and history to decide.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/are-bidens-red-lines-to-netanyahu-really-yellow-or-green/

Anti-School-Choice GOPers Massacred In Texas Primary - Vouchers Enacted In Alabama

 The school choice movement, which wants families to be able to use public money to send their children to the public, private or home-school of their choosing, scored two major triumphs last week, with multiple defeats of targeted anti-school-choice Republicans in the Texas primary, and Alabama's enactment of a comprehensive school choice program. 

Texas governor Greg Abbott had made school choice a top legislative goal of the 2023 Texas legislative session. However, his agenda was thwarted by 21 Republicans who helped the Texas House kill the measure in a final 84-63 vote. Sixteen of them were up for reelection in 2024, and Abbott earnestly gunned for the group, backing primary challenges against 10 of them, and spending $4.4 million to take them out. 

He wasn't he only one. The American Federation of Children (AFC), a school-choice group that calls for states to "fund students, not systems," went after 13 of the anti-school-choice Republicans, spending more than $4.5 million on the cause.

On Tuesday, the combined attack resulted in a bloodbath for the targeted incumbentsOf the 13 pursued by AFC Victory Fund, 10 either lost outright or are condemned to a runoff in May. Six were defeated and four will now face defeat in the May 28 runoffs. 

"March 5th will live long in the memory as a historic night for school choice in Texas and in the United States," said AFC Victory Fund CEO Tommy Schultz. "Despite decades of resistance from the education establishment, voters made clear that they want school choice, and they will remove legislators who stand in their way."

School choice in Texas received another shot in the arm by way of a non-binding proposition question on the ballot. When asked if they agreed with statement, "Texas parents and guardians should have the right to select schools, whether public or private, for their children, and the funding should follow the student," 80% of Republican voters said yes

Two days later, Alabama Gov Kay Ivey signed The CHOOSE Act into law. It creates Education Savings Accounts parents will be able to tap for $7,000 in education expenses per academic year. Home-schoolers can use up to $2,000 per year. The program is being phased in, starting with the 2025-26 school year and fully available to all students by 2027-28.  

Teachers unions and their allies say school choice defunds public schools, and condemn the notion that public money would be spent on non-government education suppliers. However, that's how most entitlements work, including many educational ones. 

“We have Pell Grants for low-income students for higher eduction, we have the Head Start program for pre-K where you can pick public, private, religious or non-religious,” said Corey DeAngelis, a senior fellow at AFC. “We have food stamps where the money goes to the person and you can pick Walmart or Trader Joe’s…it doesn’t go to a residentially-assigned, government-run grocery store. That would be absolutely ridiculous.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/anti-school-choice-gopers-massacred-texas-primary-vouchers-enacted-alabama

The Biden-Harris ‘root cause’ border failure

 Two months after he was sworn into office, President Joe Biden tasked Vice President Kamala Harris with addressing the “root causes” of the migration crisis. As Democratic Party theory of the border crisis goes, Harris’s efforts have not been a complete failure. She has raised billions of private sector dollars for economic development in Central American countries.

The disqualifying fault with the “root cause” theory, however, is that it misdiagnoses the problem. Migrants aren’t spending thousands of dollars to come to the United States because they are poor. If anything, these nations are already becoming wealthier. That’s why they can afford cellphones and smuggler fees to come to the U.S. Migration can be a phenomenon of economic success, not merely of failure.


The real “root cause” of the border crisis other than Biden’s catch-and-release policies is that socialist governments in Central America and South America are using migration as a weapon to extract concessions from a weak and ideologically sympathetic Biden administration.

Instead of coddling leftist governments in Bogota, Caracas, Managua, and Mexico City by letting them use migrants as weapons, Biden should get tough with these regimes and use every tool at his disposal, including cutting off all remittances, to force them to stanch the migrant flow.

When the White House released its first Fact Sheet Strategy to Address the Root Causes of Migration, it had five pillars: 1) addressing economic insecurity and inequality, 2) combating corruption, 3) promoting respect for human rights, 4) countering and preventing violence including crimes perpetrated by trafficking networks, and 5) combating sexual, gender-based, and domestic violence.

Of these, only the fourth came close to an effort to push countries to crack down on migrant flows, and even then, the Biden administration’s follow-through has been weak and ineffectual.

Before Biden became president, the Panama-Colombia border saw only 10,000 migrants a year. Under Biden, more than 500,000 migrants have crossed in each of the past two years. White House officials have notionally worked with Colombian socialist leader Gustavo Petro to crack down on migrant trafficking through his country. They even signed a 60-day agreement with Colombia and Panama to “end the illicit movement of people and goods” through the region. But after a few arrests, enforcement efforts were abandoned, and the flow of migrants north has continued unabated.

Asking other nations to crack down on migrant flows across their borders can be problematic, especially when your own government’s policy is to catch and release migrants into your country as quickly as possible. But the socialist governments of Central America and South America aren’t just being lax on human smuggling — they are actively encouraging it. 

Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega has loosened visa requirements not only for travelers from Haiti, Cuba, and Venezuela but also for many West African countries. Migrants from these countries are taking advantage and paying tens of thousands of dollars for flights into the Central American nation. Same for Colombia’s Petro, who has suspended visa requirements for several African nations under the guise of increasing tourism.

The main reason migrants from around the world are flooding across our southern border is that they know Biden is likely to let them in and that, once in, they won’t be deported. Shutting down the flow by forcing migrants to remain in Mexico will be difficult, especially if they keep coming in their current huge numbers.

This is all the more reason to stop wasting billions of dollars on economic development that won’t stop the migrant flow and instead press governments to raise their visa requirements and stop turning a blind eye to traffickers. If you dismantle the migrant superhighway to the U.S., the migrants won’t come.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/editorials/2910545/the-biden-harris-root-cause-border-failure/

Anti-Americanism Fans the Flames of “The New Antisemitism”

 In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, many young Jews who sought to escape the scourge of European antisemitism turned to political Zionism, a movement that culminated in 1948 in the establishment of the state of Israel. According to the Zionist dream, as masters of their own fate in their ancestral homeland, Jews no longer would face, in the worst of times, expulsion and massacre and, in the best of times, discriminatory laws and bigoted attitudes and practices. Israelis therefore have been shocked to witness the transformation of anti-Zionism into a leading form of antisemitism.

The transformation did not occur all at once. The ancient and enduring hatred of Jews had been on the rise for years in Western liberal democracies before thousands of Hamas jihadists invaded Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, to commit unspeakable acts of depravity mostly against Jewish civilians. In a staggering instance of blaming the victim, antisemitism surged in the days and weeks following the slaughter.

Israel had hardly begun to defend itself when American campuses and the streets of London and other European cities exploded with demonstrations against the Jewish state. Protesters condemned not only Israel’s conduct but also its very existence. On the same day that thousands of Hamas jihadists murdered, raped, mutilated, and kidnapped Israeli civilians, 34 Harvard student organizations spoke the thoughts of many American intellectuals and pro-Palestinian protesters in Europe in an online statementdeclaring “the Israeli regime entirely responsible for all unfolding violence.”

Criticism of Israel is no more inherently antisemitic than is criticism of the United States inherently anti-American. However, blaming Jews collectively for Israel’s policies, holding Israel to standards to which no other country is held, and denying Israel’s right to exist – an indignity to which no other UN member state is routinely exposed – express antisemitism.

While focused on Israel and the Jewish people, antisemitism also imperils liberal democracy – in America and throughout the West – which requires government and citizens to respect the equal rights that inhere in each person and to tolerate differences of opinion and alternative ways of pursuing happiness. What begins with the Jews, moreover, never ends with the Jews. Antisemitism’s resurgence in the West reflects a dysfunction within liberal democracy that creates room for and energizes other forms of intolerance and violence.

In “The New Antisemitism,” a lengthy essay published in late February in Time magazine, Noah Feldman addresses the fraught question, “Why won’t antisemitism die, or at least die down?” Wishing to approach the tense subject with “charity and sensitivity” and hoping “to encourage introspection,” he did not want “to accuse anyone of antisemitism, but to explore the topic in a way that deepens our understanding of where it comes from, and where it’s going.”

A Harvard Law School professor, Feldman goes a long way toward capturing the spirit of the new antisemitism by distinguishing it from older forms. He rightly argues that the new antisemitism derives from fashionable ideas within our universities revolving around the distinction between oppressor and oppressed. But it is not merely, as he gently contends, the misapplication of those ideas that incites hatred of Jews. It is also the ideas themselves.

For much of history, Feldman observes, religion fueled antisemitism. Christians blamed the Jews for killing Christ and resented them for clinging to their ancient faith. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern Muslims treated Jews as second-class citizens though protecting them, like Christians, as “people of the book.” But, argues Feldman, times have changed. Organized Christianity repudiated antisemitism. And Islamist antisemitism springs not from traditional Islamic texts, he somewhat tendentiously maintains, but from tropes imported from Europe.

In the 19th century, with religion’s decline and enlightenment’s rise, antisemitism took on new hues and shapes. Jews, according to Feldman, were reviled as supreme capitalists and as supreme communists. Either way, antisemites alleged, Jews ran the world, which damaged humanity because they were an inferior race. Nazi Germany set out to exterminate the Jewish people. The Soviet Union merely persecuted, imprisoned, and tortured them.

While antisemitism taints the contemporary far right, Feldman recognizes that “the most perniciously creative current in contemporary antisemitic thought is more likely to come from the left.” Leading strands of progressive thought converge in postcolonial theory – a fashionable set of ideas that explains the conduct of great powers like the United Kingdom and the United States as driven by the racist and rapacious determination to dominate non-white peoples and foreign lands.

Postcolonial theory, which is deeply entrenched in American universities’ Middle East studies programs, understands politics exclusively through the lens of oppressor and oppressed while typically classifying Israel among the villains. “The core of this new antisemitism lies in the idea that Jews are not a historically oppressed people seeking self-preservation but instead oppressors: imperialists, colonialists, and even white supremacists,” writes Feldman. “This view preserves vestiges of the trope that Jews exercise vast power” at the same time as “It creatively updates that narrative to contemporary circumstances and current cultural preoccupations with the nature of power and injustice.

The contemporary critique, however, does not fit Israel’s complex reality. While “the concept of imperialism was developed to describe European powers that conquered, controlled, and exploited vast territories in the Global South and East,” explains Feldman, “The theory of settler-colonial white supremacy was developed as a critical account of countries like Australia and the U.S., in which, according to the theory, the colonialists’ aim was to displace the local population, not to extract value from its labor.” Contrary to the imperialism narrative, however, “Israel is a regional Middle Eastern power with a tiny footprint, not a global or continental empire designed to extract resources and labor.” And in opposition to the theory of settler colonialism, in 1947, the UN voted to establish a Jewish state and an Arab state. Five Arab armies’ efforts to destroy Israel after it declared independence in 1948 created the Palestinian refugee crisis. Half of Israel’s Jewish population is not ethnically European and more than 20% of its citizens are Arabs.

“To emphasize the narrative of Jews as oppressors,” writes Feldman, “the new antisemitism must also somehow sidestep not only two millennia of Jewish oppression, but also the Holocaust, the largest organized, institutionalized murder of any ethnic group in human history.” Nevertheless, the new antisemitism seized on the terrible war of self-defense forced on Israel by Hamas’ monstrous assault to contend that the Jewish state is perpetrating genocide against Gazan Palestinians. This obscene calumny advances the goal, argues Feldman, “of erasing the memory of the Holocaust and transforming Jews from victims into oppressors.”

Israel’s war aims – destroy Hamas’ ability to govern in Gaza and to wage war and secure the hostages’ release – are lawful, Feldman stresses. And while one can quarrel with this or that targeting decision, Israel strives, as the laws of war require, to protect noncombatants to the extent possible consistent with the achievement of its legitimate military goals. Meanwhile, contrary to the laws of war, Hamas has converted urban areas into battle zones. That makes the jihadists prima facie responsible – morally and legally – for the tragic loss of thousands of noncombatants’ lives in Gaza and the reduction of much of the territory’s civilian infrastructure to rubble.

Feldman effectively shows that the imposition of postcolonial theory on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict fuels and is fueled by the new antisemitism. To leave matters at that, however, obscures the damage done by the theory itself.

Postcolonial theory – an offshoot of which is the diversity, equity, and inclusion industry now entrenched in America’s universities, corporations, and federal bureaucracy – is an all-embracing ideology. It does not merely call attention to power and injustice – what school of social and political thought does not? – but rather reduces human affairs to relations of power while forcing all people into the crude categories of oppressor and oppressed.

The practical results of American universities’ promulgation of postcolonial theory are as pernicious as they are inevitable. Postcolonial theory sows ignorance because no single binary distinction can capture the complexity of human affairs. Among those who style themselves the oppressed, it foments scorn for the past, resentment of the present, and a haughty sense of entitlement to special privileges in the future. For those classified as oppressors, it fosters guilt among the more impressionable, and anger and resentment among those who reject blame for crimes dating back centuries in which they played no part and deny their complicity with the supposed stealth norms and invisible structures that purportedly continue to subjugate minorities and women.

Postcolonial theory typically targets the United States as the greatest oppressor. It is a short step to indicting Israel, America’s leading friend and partner in the Middle East and the region’s only rights-protecting democracy, as a co-conspirator.

Feldman is righter than he realizes in counseling that, “The best way to start climbing out of the abyss of antisemitism is to self-examine our impulses, our stories about power and injustice, and our beliefs.”

The self-examination, which will redound not only to the benefit of Israel and the Jews but also to that of liberal democracy in America, should begin on U.S. campuses, whose fashionable anti-Americanism fans the flames of the new antisemitism.

Peter Berkowitz is the Tad and Dianne Taube senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. From 2019 to 2021, he served as director of the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. State Department. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/03/10/anti-americanism_fans_the_flames_of_the_new_antisemitism_150634.html

How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

 The number of civilian casualties in Gaza has been at the center of international attention since the start of the war. The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women. Recently, the Biden administration lent legitimacy to Hamas’ figure. When asked at a House Armed Services Committee hearing last week how many Palestinian women and children have been killed since Oct. 7, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the number was “over 25,000.” The Pentagon quickly clarified that the secretary “was citing an estimate from the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.” President Biden himself had earlier cited this figure, asserting that “too many, too many of the over 27,000 Palestinians killed in this conflict have been innocent civilians and children, including thousands of children.” The White House also explained that the president “was referring to publicly available data about the total number of casualties.”

Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.

If Hamas’ numbers are faked or fraudulent in some way, there may be evidence in the numbers themselves that can demonstrate it. While there is not much data available, there is a little, and it is enough: From Oct. 26 until Nov. 10, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that include both a total number and a specific number of women and children.

The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity, as the graph in Figure 1 reveals.

The graph reveals an extremely regular increase in casualties over the period. Data aggregated by the author and provided by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), based on Gaza MoH figures.
The graph reveals an extremely regular increase in casualties over the period. Data aggregated by the author and provided by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), based on Gaza MoH figures.

This regularity is almost surely not real. One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behavior of naturally occurring numbers. Unfortunately, verified control data is not available to formally test this conclusion, but the details of the daily counts render the numbers suspicious.

Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women. This is because the daily variation in death counts is caused by the variation in the number of strikes on residential buildings and tunnels which should result in considerable variability in the totals but less variation in the percentage of deaths across groups. This is a basic statistical fact about chance variability. Consequently, on the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported. This relationship can be measured and quantified by the R-square (R2 ) statistic that measures how correlated the daily casualty count for women is with the daily casualty count for children. If the numbers were real, we would expect R2 to be substantively larger than 0, tending closer to 1.0. But R2 is .017 which is statistically and substantively not different from 0.

The daily number of children reported to have been killed is totally unrelated to the number of women reported. The R2 is .017 and the relationship is statistically and substantively insignificant.
The daily number of children reported to have been killed is totally unrelated to the number of women reported. The R2 is .017 and the relationship is statistically and substantively insignificant.

This lack of correlation is the second circumstantial piece of evidence suggesting the numbers are not real. But there is more. The daily number of women casualties should be highly correlated with the number of non-women and non-children (i.e., men) reported. Again, this is expected because of the nature of battle. The ebbs and flows of the bombings and attacks by Israel should cause the daily count to move together. But that is not what the data show. Not only is there not a positive correlation, there is a strong negative correlation, which makes no sense at all and establishes the third piece of evidence that the numbers are not real.

The correlation between the daily men and daily women death count is absurdly strong and negative (p-value < .0001).
The correlation between the daily men and daily women death count is absurdly strong and negative (p-value < .0001).

Consider some further anomalies in the data: First, the death count reported on Oct. 29 contradicts the numbers reported on the 28th, insofar as they imply that 26 men came back to life. This can happen because of misattribution or just reporting error. There are a few other days where the numbers of men are reported to be near 0. If these were just reporting errors, then on those days where the death count for men appears to be in error, the women’s count should be typical, at least on average. But it turns out that on the three days when the men’s count is near zero, suggesting an error, the women’s count is high. In fact, the three highest daily women casualty count occurs on those three days.

There are three days where the male casualty count is close to 0. These three days correspond to the three highest daily women’s casualty count.
There are three days where the male casualty count is close to 0. These three days correspond to the three highest daily women’s casualty count.

Taken together, what does this all imply? While the evidence is not dispositive, it is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. Most likely, the Hamas ministry settled on a daily total arbitrarily. We know this because the daily totals increase too consistently to be real. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day. Then they in-filled the number of men as set by the predetermined total. This explains all the data observed.

There are other obvious red flags. The Gaza Health Ministry has consistently claimed that about 70% of the casualties are women or children. This total is far higher than the numbers reported in earlier conflicts with Israel. Another red flag, raised by Salo Aizenberg and written about extensively, is that if 70% of the casualties are women and children and 25% of the population is adult male, then either Israel is not successfully eliminating Hamas fighters or adult male casualty counts are extremely low. This by itself strongly suggests that the numbers are at a minimum grossly inaccurate and quite probably outright faked. Finally, on Feb. 15, Hamas admitted to losing 6,000 of its fighters, which represents more than 20% of the total number of casualties reported.

Taken together, Hamas is reporting not only that 70% of casualties are women and children but also that 20% are fighters. This is not possible unless Israel is somehow not killing noncombatant men, or else Hamas is claiming that almost all the men in Gaza are Hamas fighters.

Are there better numbers? Some objective commentators have acknowledged Hamas’ numbers in previous battles with Israel to be roughly accurate. Nevertheless, this war is wholly unlike its predecessors in scale or scope; international observers who were able to monitor previous wars are now completely absent, so the past can’t be assumed to be a reliable guide. The fog of war is especially thick in Gaza, making it impossible to quickly determine civilian death totals with any accuracy. Not only do official Palestinian death counts fail to differentiate soldiers from children, but Hamas also blames all deaths on Israel even if caused by Hamas’ own misfired rockets, accidental explosions, deliberate killings, or internal battles. One group of researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health compared Hamas reports to data on UNRWA workers. They argued that because the death rates were approximately similar, Hamas’ numbers must not be inflated. But their argument relied on a crucial and unverified assumption: that UNRWA workers are not disproportionately more likely to be killed than the general population. That premise exploded when it was uncovered that a sizable fraction of UNRWA workers are affiliated with Hamas. Some were even exposed as having participated in the Oct. 7 massacre itself.

The truth can’t yet be known and probably never will be. The total civilian casualty count is likely to be extremely overstated. Israel estimates that at least 12,000 fighters have been killed. If that number proves to be even reasonably accurate, then the ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants is remarkably low: at most 1.4 to 1 and perhaps as low as 1 to 1. By historical standards of urban warfare, where combatants are embedded above and below into civilian population centers, this is a remarkable and successful effort to prevent unnecessary loss of life while fighting an implacable enemy that protects itself with civilians.

The data used in the article can be found here, with thanks to Salo Aizenberg who helped check and correct these numbers.

Abraham Wyner is Professor of Statistics and Data Science at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Faculty Co-Director of the Wharton Sports Analytics and Business Initiative.


https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers

'The Dirty Little Secret of the 2024 Campaign'

 This week, new polling showed what Democrats have long feared: Donald Trump is now in commanding position to defeat Joe Biden and win reelection in 2024. According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll, Trump is up 48-43 over Biden; what's more, Biden is actually underwater among Hispanics, earns just two-thirds of Black votes, and has cratered among independents. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump now leads in every swing state but Pennsylvania and is within the margin of error there, too. Nationally, Trump has not trailed Biden since September 2023.

We all know what's going wrong for Biden: He's widely perceived as too old to be running again; Americans remain unhappy with the economy, deeply enraged over border policy and alarmed by the brush fires around the world. Biden came into office promising normalcy, and he has instead delivered chaos.

But there's something else going on, too.

Joe Biden is losing to Donald Trump because of a dirty little secret: Donald Trump is actually the moderate in this race.

On nearly every issue, Trump is closer to the median voter than Biden. Biden won the Democratic primaries over Sen. Bernie Sanders in 2020 because voters thought he would tack toward the center, away from the insanity of The Squad in Congress -- borderline psychotics like Reps. Cori Bush, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar. Instead, he entered office believing that he had a mandate for transformation, that he could become our age's FDR or LBJ.

And so Biden abandoned the middle.

And median voters are now abandoning Biden. As election analyst Nate Silver rightly observes, The New York Times poll shows that "only 83 percent of voters who say they chose Biden in 2020 plan to vote for him this year, whereas 97 percent who voted for Trump plan to vote for Trump again. These are swing voters, in other words -- people who are explicitly stating to pollsters that they are switching their vote from 2020. There are a substantial number of them." Because the legacy media are monolithically radical on matters of politics, they keep encouraging Biden to double down on the left-wing base, hoping that by steering toward the radicals, he can boost voter turnout. But that strategy is leaving independent voters behind.

Meanwhile, Trump is winning over more and more vote-switchers. That's because his positions are (SET ITAL)moderate.(END ITAL) On abortion, for example, he may support a federal 16-week ban. By polling data, 48% of Americans support such a ban, compared with 36% who oppose such a ban. Only 24% of Americans support Biden's position -- availability of abortion without limits. On immigration, Biden is underwater by over 20 points. On inflation and spending, Americans favor lower inflation and lower spending -- both propositions that cut against Biden's preferred policies. On national security, Americans broadly favor Israel over Hamas -- and yet Biden's administration has steered toward the pro-Hamas voters in Dearborn, Michigan.

For some reason, Biden and his team think that their echo chamber strategy -- shouting "Jan. 6!" over and over while demonizing their political opposition as insurrectionists and traitors -- is likely to jog enough base turnout to overcome their loss of the middle. But that's a chimerical proposition. Biden, in other words, has been suckered by the very people who want him to win most -- the radicals in the media who keep ramming him toward the far left, even as he falls further and further behind in the polling.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/03/06/the_dirty_little_secret_of_the_2024_campaign_150605.html