How the North Korea-Russia alliance could damage Biden in 2024

 An intensifying military alliance between Russia and North Korea could spell trouble for President Biden in November.

Pyongyang — already accused of supplying Moscow with vast amounts of munitions for its war in Ukraine in return for military technology — is suspected of planning a major provocative military action close to the U.S. presidential election, according to U.S. intelligence and experts.

That stormcloud on the horizon comes in addition to an expanded deal between the two countries that could be inked in a few weeks during an expected visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea to meet leader Kim Jong Un. 

Such a deal would likely further entrench the grinding war in Ukraine and bolster Pyongyang’s nuclear aims, increasing tensions in the Asia-Pacific region during an already rocky year for Biden when it comes to foreign policy. 

“This is definitely something that the Biden administration has to worry about,” said Harry Kazianis, the senior director of national security affairs at the Center for the National Interest think tank.

The alliance between Kim and Putin has been steadily growing since September, when the two first met to negotiate the purchase of North Korean artillery shells, rockets and missiles in exchange for valuable Russian military technology.

By November, U.S. and South Korean officials estimated Pyongyang had sent a million artillery shells to Moscow in addition to rockets and ballistic missiles — a violation of numerous U.N. sanctions on both countries — though North Korea firmly denies those claims.

The North Korean missiles have had a deadly impact in Ukraine, according to Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh.

“We’ve seen this deepening of partnership between North Korea and Russia. We know that the munitions being supplied by DPRK to Russia are being used on the battlefield in Ukraine,” she told reporters Thursday, referring to the country’s official name of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. 

“We know that they have been successful in causing damage to infrastructure, causing civilians to be killed.”

Now, with Putin planning to visit Kim in the next several weeks, experts predict a further solidified military alliance. The union is beneficial for both Russia’s aim of grinding down Ukraine and North Korea’s nuclear and space ambitions, but it’s problematic for the rest of the globe.

“The relationship between Russia and North Korea makes Russia a little bit more dangerous and a little bit more problematic, but it makes North Korea a lot more dangerous and a lot more problematic,” said Markus Garlauskas director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.

Garlauskas told The Hill the alliance is likely to embolden Kim into levels of escalation he might not otherwise be willing to take, while also helping North Korea refine their capabilities and give them insights as to how they can use those in real conflicts or full-scale war.

Kim, in particular, is reportedly looking to Russia to help North Korea complete final steps needed to launch its first nuclear-armed submarine, as well as successfully get a spy satellite into space.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of talk about a very firm military partnership,” Kazianis said of the upcoming meeting. “I think the North Koreans are going to formalize their aid to Russia in terms of military hardware, missiles, all that type of stuff. And I think the Russians are going to be reciprocating by offering satellite equipment, [Intercontinental Ballistic Missile] technology, missile technology, helping with advanced artillery equipment.”

He said such an agreement is “extremely dangerous for the Biden administration” given North Korea’s already potent arsenal that could soon be bolstered by Soviet technology.

“I think the Biden administration has got to start thinking about what they can do to limit that impact and I don’t think they are right now,” he added.

Russia’s military, which is eating up ammunition on the battlefield faster than its factories can churn it out, will continue to need help from the outside, likely from North Korea’s surplus of old military stocks left over from the Korean War, according to Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

In exchange, North Korea appears eager for a major military boost via Moscow after a series of setbacks, including Monday’s explosion of a spy satellite launch just minutes after liftoff — the third such failure in Pyongyang’s last four attempts to put a satellite into orbit.

That failure set off an angry barrage of at least 10 North Korea ballistic missiles fired from Pyongyang into the Sea of Japan on Thursday, according the U.S. and South Korean officials.

 “Russia would not [normally] give important technology to North Korea … but because Putin needs this ammunition he’s probably willing to provide things that he or his predecessors were not willing to provide in the past,” Cha said.

“The Ukraine war is about the best thing that could have ever happened for North Korea,” he added. “It’s like the candy store has opened up…just because they’ve got Putin in a position where he needs North Korea more than North Korea needs Putin.”

Such an agreement between the two countries “definitely complicates the situation for Biden because Putin is now doing things with North Korea that not only affects the battlefield in Ukraine, but affects security in the Indo-Pacific,” Cha said. “It is quite concerning.”

What’s more, North Korea’s saber rattling could soon ramp up.”

Data compiled by CSIS shows that North Korea typically increases their military activity in U.S. presidential election years by nearly four times their usual pace.

But U.S. intelligence officials are further bracing for the isolated nation to undertake a major military action — potentially the largest in a decade — close to November, NBC News reported.

Kazianis said he fully expects a so-called “October surprise” from Pyongyang to be a nuclear test as the last couple of years North Korea has fallen off the U.S. media map

“He’s got to do something really big. The biggest thing he could do that he hasn’t done in years is a nuclear test,” Kazianis said. “The question for Kim is, does he make it a tactical nuclear weapons test that’s kind of small but can show a new military capability? Or does he go big and prove to the world that he has the ability to produce hydrogen bombs?”

That possibility has been bolstered by U.S. intelligence that points to increased activity at one of the North Korean nuclear test facilities.

In addition, satellite images from April 2 by Beyond Parallel, a CSIS project, showed activity at Tunnel No. 3 at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear facility.

“Any activity in or around Tunnel No. 3 is always of concern as both the United States and South Korea have assessed North Korea as having completed all the required preparations for conducting a seventh nuclear test from the tunnel,” the group noted.

Others, including Cha, predicted North Korea will continue its pace of missile demonstrations through the rest of this year, which could include a major ICBM test flight.

And North Korea does not appear to be swayed to give up on its military ambitions by any outside prodding. The U.S. has made no significant headway with the Kim regime since Biden has been in office, despite multiple offers to begin talks without any conditions. The one outreach attempt made this year garnered no response, officials told NBC.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4696498-north-korea-russia-damage-biden-2024-election/

Gingrich: Trump stronger after conviction: This ‘may backfire on the left’

 Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) said he thinks the guilty verdict delivered to former President Trump this week only makes him stronger and the conviction may end up backfiring on the left.

Gingrich joined John Catsimatidis on WABC 770 AM’s “Cats Roundtable,” where they discussed the jury’s decision to convict Trump on all 34 felony counts against him for falsifying business records related to a hush money payment to conceal an alleged affair with porn actor Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.

Gingrich commended the former president on how he has handled himself since the verdict.

“Trump handled all of this with such dignity and such endurance, that I think he actually grew in stature that people realize … this guy’s taking a tremendous beating, just for the right to try to save the country,” he said.

Gingrich argued “in a funny kind of way” the hush money trial and conviction may “backfire on the left and leave them, I think, weaker than they were if they never [had] gone down this road. And that’s a big factor.”

Gingrich slammed the verdict as “fake conviction” covered by “fake news.”

“Well, I think we’re at a genuine crisis point. And that we just saw the most phony case ever brought against the presidential candidate,” Gingrich said. “We see that Trump has had a fake conviction covered, of course, by the fake news.”

The former speaker blamed Trump’s guilty verdict on the Biden campaign, who he said is seeking to remove Trump from the election. The Biden campaign had no involvement in the case. Trump was convicted by 12 jurors from New York.

The former president criticized the conviction, vowing to appeal. In remarks given after the decision was handed down, Trump said the “real verdict” would be on Election Day.

The Trump campaign said it has raked in more than $50 million in donations since Thursday.

Gingrich argued that the “shocking result” of the verdict was that it made some Republicans and independents angry and want to get involved financially.

“I think people just looked up and said ‘this is now so sick that I have to get involved,’” Gingrich said.

https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4698301-gingrich-says-trump-stronger-after-conviction-this-may-backfire-on-the-left/

Burst pipes in Atlanta leads to water outages, boil water notices

 Crews in Atlanta, Ga. on Saturday continued repairs to a series of water pipes that burst last week and prompted several businesses to close amid water outages and boil water notices.

Repairs to the burst pipes began Friday after water poured into the street in downtown Atlanta where three water mains intersect. Another water main break occurred separately in Midtown Atlanta, city officials said Saturday.

The breaks impacted services at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, the Fulton County Jail, Atlanta City Detention Center, and other “critical facilities” in the city, according to the Atlanta Mayor’s Office.  

A stretch of downtown and Midtown Atlanta was subsequently placed under a boil water advisory, and the city handed out water palettes to respondents across the city. Residents were told to limit water usage to allow the pressure in the system to rebuild.

The city’s first responders were also monitoring high rise residences to check on elderly and other vulnerable residents, Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens (D) confirmed in a news conference Saturday.

“Let me just be clear that these people are working tirelessly, they are working as fast as humanly possible and as carefully as humanly possible to resolve this situation as quickly as possible,” Dickens said, adding later, “My administration understands very clearly how important the city’s water supply is. Water is a valuable…a critical…resource and cities can’t function, and lives can’t function without it.”

As of Sunday, crews completed multiple rounds of repairs to the water main system and were gradually bringing the system back online to allow for the rebuilding of system pressures, the mayor’s office said.

Dickens noted the city’s water main system is “very old infrastructure,” and his office is inquiring the help of engineers to determine the best solution.

City officials came under scrutiny for providing slow updates to residents after the city and its water management department sent an update after 8 p.m. Friday and did not send another one for 12 hours, the Associated Press reported. Dickens on Saturday acknowledged the lapse in communication and said the city will provide updates every two hours until the incident is resolved.

“Overnight, we did not do the best job of communicating. We could have done a better job over the past day, and for that, I apologize,” the mayor said.

Atlanta’s Department of Watershed Management will continue its flushing protocols as a precaution and sample the impacted areas to confirm no contamination before the boil water advisory is lifted, per the mayor’s office.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4698757-burst-pipes-in-atlanta-leads-to-water-outages-boil-water-notices/

1 In 9 Children In The US Diagnosed With ADHD, COVID-19 A Potential Factor

  by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Childhood attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is becoming increasingly common, with a new study revealing that one in nine American kids have been diagnosed with the condition—equating to 7.1 million children.

Many more children in the U.S. have been diagnosed with ADHD recently. In 2022, there were 1 million more cases compared to 2016, potentially fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic’s effect on children’s mental health and virtual schooling putting symptoms on display.

Pandemic Stressors May Have Fueled Rise in ADHD

The research article, published in the Journal of Clinical Child & Adolescent Psychology, provided insight into how the COVID-19 pandemic potentially influenced ADHD diagnoses. The higher prevalence could reflect “a generally increasing awareness of and pursuit of care for ADHD and/or a reflection of poor mental health among children during the COVID-19 pandemic,” the researchers wrote.

Previous studies have shown that the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the mental and social well-being of young people, who experienced stressors such as illness and death in the family and community, changes in parents’ work habits, disruptions in school life, decreased social interaction, and increased fear and uncertainty. A 2022 study found that these pandemic-related stressors “can increase symptoms of inattention, impulsivity, and hyperactivity.”

The COVID-19 pandemic likely helped encourage an increase in diagnoses, as previously unobserved ADHD symptoms were front and center in households when children attended school virtually, according to the new study.

Conversely, during the pandemic, schools faced greater challenges in providing support for those students, “may have led more parents to seek diagnoses to ensure access to support for their child,” the research team wrote.

What It Takes for a Child to Be Diagnosed

ADHD is one of the most common developmental conditions affecting children in the U.S. In the three-year span before the COVID-19 pandemic, nearly one in 10 children had received a diagnosis. To be diagnosed with the condition, a child must exhibit at least six symptoms of either inattention or hyperactivity-impulsivity for at least six months.

The symptoms must be severe enough to be “maladaptive and inconsistent with developmental level” or negatively impact social, academic, and occupational activities, according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders.

Common symptoms of inattention include difficulty maintaining attention during tasks or play, not following instructions, often losing items required for an activity or task (like a pencil for homework), or being forgetful in daily activities.

Examples of hyperactivity include fidgeting with hands or feet, leaving one’s seat in the classroom or situations where they’re expected to remain seated, or having difficulty playing quietly. Examples of impulsivity include difficulty waiting for their turn or often interrupting others.

ADHD Gender Gap Narrows

In the U.S., more boys than girls have typically been diagnosed with ADHD, but new data shows that the gap between the two sexes is narrowing. Before 2022, the boy-to-girl diagnosis ratio was 2:1, while in 2022, it dropped slightly to 1.8:1, according to the study.

Among children aged 3 to 17 with ADHD, 41.9 percent had mild cases, 45.3 percent moderate, and 12.8 percent severe. Certain factors were linked to more severe ADHD: being aged 6-11 (vs. adolescents), living in households with lower education or income levels, and having a co-occurring mental/behavioral/developmental disorder.

More white American children are diagnosed with ADHD than minority children, though the research team noted that “with increased awareness, such gaps in diagnoses have been narrowing or closing.”

Children with public health insurance had the highest prevalence levels, as did children whose caregivers’ highest level of education was high school.

ADHD in children was most common in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, compared to children living in the West.

The report notes that the prevalence of ADHD in children is higher in the United States than in other countries. The reason “may be the result of variation in availability of clinicians trained to diagnose and manage ADHD, state and local policies, and regional differences in demographic characteristics,” the research team wrote. Future research could determine the differences between clinical guidelines and practices across countries.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/1-9-children-us-diagnosed-adhd-covid-19-potential-factor

China's defence minister, Zelenskiy dominate Shangri-La Dialogue's last day

 China's defence chief Dong Jun slammed "separatists" in Taiwan in an acerbic address on Sunday at the Shangri-La Dialogue, hours before Ukrainian President Volodmyr Zelenskiy was due to speak at the conference.

Wearing the uniform of an admiral in the People's Liberation Army Navy, Dong warned that prospects of a peaceful "reunification" of Taiwan were being eroded, and promised to ensure the island would never gain independence.

China views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, over the strong objections of the government in Taipei, and last month staged war games around the island in anger at inauguration of President Lai Ching-te who Beijing calls a "separatist".

"Those separatists recently made fanatical statements that show their betrayal of the Chinese nation and their ancestors. They will be nailed to the pillar of shame in history," Dong said.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said Dong's speech covered little new ground.

“Every year for three years, a new Chinese defence minister has come to Shangri-La," the official said. "And every year, they’ve given a speech at complete odds with the reality of the PLA’s coercive activity across the region. This year was no different.”

Dong's speech comes a day after U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told delegates the Indo-Pacific region remained a key focus for the United States, even as it grappled with security assistance for Ukraine and the war in Gaza.

"Let me be clear: The United States can be secure only if Asia is secure," Austin said. "That's why the United States has long maintained our presence in this region."

Dong and Austin met for more than an hour earlier in the conference.

In response to Austin's speech, Chinese Lieutenant General Jing Jianfeng said the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy was intended "to create division, provoke confrontation and undermine stability."

Some U.S. officials say Beijing has become more emboldened in recent years, recently launching what it described as "punishment" drills around Taiwan, sending heavily armed warplanes and staging mock attacks after Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as Taiwan's president.

Zelenskiy, who arrived on Saturday, is scheduled to speak in a forum called "Reimagining Solutions for Global Peace and Regional Stability" on Sunday morning.

He is expected to try to drum up support for a Ukraine peace conference to be hosted by Switzerland in mid-June. Russia has not been invited and China has confirmed it will not attend. Zelenskiy has urged U.S. President Joe Biden to attend, but Washington has not confirmed who it will send.

In a post on the social media platform X early on Sunday, Zelenskiy said he had met Timor-Leste President Jose Ramos-Horta and confirmed his country's attendance at the summit.

"I appreciate his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as important UN resolutions condemning Russian aggression," Zelenskiy said.

He said he also met a U.S. congressional delegation and Indonesia's president-elect, Prabowo Subianto. His plans to visit Singapore were first reported by Reuters on Friday.

Russia has not sent a delegation to the Shangri-La Dialogue since it invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Other bilateral meetings are expected on Sunday, the final day of the security summit organised by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/chinese-defence-minister-ukraines-zelenskiy-001554809.html

The World's Largest Armies In 2024

 Despite being considered the biggest military force in the world, the United States doesn’t have the largest army in terms of personnel.

This graphic below, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, shows the top 10 countries by military personnel as of May 2024, including active and reserve personnel, as well as paramilitary forces. It is based on estimates from GlobalFirepower.com.

Vietnam, India, and South Korea Have the Biggest Armies

China has the largest standing army, with over 2 million active personnel. With increasing defense spending over the last decades, the country also ranks third in the number of tanks and second in the number of aircraft carriers in service.

When reserve personnel are included, however, the Chinese military falls behind those of Vietnam, India, South Korea, and Russia.

Vietnam’s forces include 600,000 active personnel and over 5 million in reserve. This is because Vietnam, along with countries like South Korea and Israel, has a standing policy of conscription for young adults.

Interestingly, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in a massive increase in Ukrainian personnel numbers. Active personnel rose from around 170,000 in 2016 to over 900,000.

Despite not having the largest army, the U.S. accounts for almost 40% of global military expenditures, with its 2022 spending totaling $877 billion.

China ranked second in absolute terms, accounting for another 13% of world military expenditure at $292 billion.

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/these-are-worlds-largest-armies-2024

Our Chemical Facilities Are Vulnerable To Attack

 If our nation suffers another terrorist attack, it will be hard to argue that the signs weren’t there for us to see. The federal government has expressed growing concern that AI will empower attacks on our water, transportation, and financial systems. The Department of Homeland Security has warned that bad actors are using the technology to develop weapons of mass destruction. We know foreign nationals are illegally crossing our southern border in droves. And the death of Iran’s president could foment international conflict that deepens concerns about attacks in the U.S.

Congress should be taking every measure to secure our nation’s critical infrastructure. Yet when it comes to chemical production facilities, they have left the door wide open.

Last summer, legislators allowed a federal security program protecting chemical plants to expire. I hope it doesn’t take an attack on these facilities to show the vital role they play in producing our energy, food, drinking water, computer chips, medicines, cars—you name it. That’s what makes them such an attractive target for terrorists—and that’s why we should do everything in our power to protect them.

After the September 11th attacks, Congress directed the Department of Homeland Security to create the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards program (CFATS) to address potential terrorist threats to chemical facilities. This helped DHS identify facilities that might be at risk of a potential attack and set national standards for addressing physical and cyber threats. CFATS also provided companies with access to valuable expertise from DHS and important tools to help prevent bad actors from gaining access. It successfully flagged at least 10 individuals with potential ties to terrorism.

But last July, the Senate blocked the program, allowing it to lapse for the first time in 15 years. More than 80,000 individuals in the chemical industry have not been vetted against the FBI’s terrorist screening database.

Losing CFATS is like the Transportation Security Administration losing its ability to secure air travel. To be sure, airports and airlines do their own screening. But a federal agency cross-referencing passengers with central databases makes it much more likely that a terrorist trying to evade detection will be stopped before boarding a plane.

The chemical industry hasn’t been shy about opposing excessive federal regulations, but this is one program that has proven effective. In fact, a recent survey of American Chemistry Council members found that 96 percent support restoring the program, and 85 percent are concerned that failure to do so will compromise security. And this strong support for the program extends beyond industry. Law enforcement organizations, emergency responders, and labor unions have also called on Congress to restore CFATS.

Our member companies are fully committed to securing their facilities, but the chemical industry should not have to go it alone. Weakening our chemical sector’s security only helps our adversaries. The House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved bipartisan legislation last year to keep CFATS active and keep our chemical facilities safe. The Senate must act before it’s too late.

Chris Jahn is President and CEO of the American Chemistry Council.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/our-chemical-facilities-are-vulnerable-attack